Continue to recommend the glass fiber industry with a good industry pattern, benefiting from the cement and waterproof early cycle related sectors with relaxed infrastructure investment and real estate margin.
This week, the sector rose and outperformed the market: this week, Shenwan building materials index closed at 8060.4 points, up 2.4%, outperforming Wande a. The industry’s average p / E ratio was 14.55 times, up 0.34 from last week.
Cement is likely to benefit from infrastructure recovery and loose real estate. It is expected to usher in recovery next year: affected by the late fiscal rhythm and the tightening of real estate financing policies, the demand for cement in 2021 is general. Looking forward to next year, the logic supporting cement demand mainly includes: 1. The special bonds issued in advance in the second half of 2021 are expected to form infrastructure demand in the first half of next year, and the certainty of financial advance next year is high, 2 There will be great downward pressure on the economy next year. At present, the central government has released loose signals for many times. Infrastructure and real estate, as a means to stimulate economic growth, are more likely to benefit from policies; The supply of cement industry is expected to shrink steadily next year, mainly because: 1 The double control standard of energy consumption is stricter, 2 With the increasing pressure of emission reduction in the context of double carbon, it is difficult for the cement industry to significantly reduce carbon while maintaining output. Production reduction may become the main means, 3 Peak shifting production plans are tightening in most provinces. At present, the valuation of the cement sector is at a low position. It is suggested to focus on grasping the bottom layout opportunity.
The growth rate of glass fiber demand is greater than that of supply, the industry pattern can be maintained, and the industry growth is gradually erasing the periodicity: the glass fiber industry has a high prosperity in 2021. Driven by the recovery of wind power installation, the rapid development of electronic integrated circuits, the lightweight of vehicles and the greening of buildings, we calculate that the demand for glass fiber in 2022 will be about 6.8-6 million tons, with a large increase; Under the circumstances of stricter environmental protection policies, tight energy consumption control and high platinum and rhodium metals, the new supply is expected to slow down. We estimate that the net new production capacity is expected to be about 600000 tons next year. Affected by the above factors, it is difficult to have the impact of new production capacity. With strong demand, controllable supply increment and high probability of slowdown, the industry pattern is expected to be maintained. In addition, the properties of glass fiber and its composites are gradually improving, the substitution of traditional materials is gradually accelerating, the growth of products is gradually emerging, and the periodicity is gradually weakening.
Key recommendation
It is recommended to invest in the relevant cement, waterproof early cycle and pipe sectors with the benefit of financial advance and special bonds. At present, the valuation of the cement sector is at a low position. It is suggested to focus on grasping the bottom layout opportunity. Recommend Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) cement leader in East China, Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) improved corporate governance, and Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) industry leader, etc. The special bond investment focuses on the construction of water conservancy pipelines. The demand for pipes is expected to rise next year. It is recommended to pay attention to the upward logic of the bottom of the industry and recommend Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Yonggao Co.Ltd(002641) . The logic of increasing the concentration of water reducing agent has been strongly confirmed, which is expected to benefit from the recovery of infrastructure construction. It is recommended Lets Holdings Group Co.Ltd(002398) . In addition, waterproof and concrete products also deserve attention.
Main risks of rating
Risk tip: the demand for glass fiber is less than expected, and the pace of production capacity is accelerated; Industry policy risk; Rising prices of raw materials; Epidemic disturbance.
