At the current time point, we recommend Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) , Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) , Bros Eastern Co.Ltd(601339) :
(1) Subject matter with extended store space, Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) : 1) by creating sports suits and broadening application scenarios, the main brand has increased its efforts to open stores in the central region, maintaining a growth rate of more than 15%, higher than that of the industry; 2) Hazys: on the basis of high efficiency, the brand still has extension shop space; In addition, the brand still has the logic of expanding categories such as shoes, bags and golf series, which is expected to maintain an increase of more than 25% in the future; 3) BAONIAO is expected to maintain a growth rate of more than 10%, and usher in an improvement in net interest rate with the commissioning of Hefei factory; 4) Small brands zhonglefeiye and kemiche are expected to maintain an increase of more than 35% and gradually contribute to profits.
(2) According to the target of Gaojing bearing track, Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) : 1) there are sufficient export orders and it is expected to grow steadily in the future; 2) the domestic business benefits from the epidemic superposition and double reduction policy, which drives the hot demand for camping. In the medium and long term, the proportion of domestic sales revenue is expected to exceed half and the superposition net interest rate will be improved to 15% +.
(3) This week, we reiterated our key recommendation for Bros Eastern Co.Ltd(601339) . We analyzed that in November, the capacity utilization rate of Blum Vietnam plant has recovered to 90%, the price increase of superimposed Q4 is smooth, and the annual performance is likely to exceed expectations.
Market review: outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.51pct
This week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.39%, the gem index fell 4.0%, and the SW textile and garment sector rose 0.12%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.51pct and the gem index by 4.12pct. Among them, SW clothing and home textiles decreased by 0.13%, and SW textile manufacturing increased by 0.68%. At present, the PE of SW textile and garment industry is 15.76. This week, home textiles performed best, with an increase of 4.15%; Footwear performed the worst, down 5.65%. Baosheng international fell 10.83% this week, mainly due to the second quarter results announced by its agent brand Nike this week and the year-on-year decrease of 20% in sales in Greater China.
Market data tracking: China's cotton price index rose 0.32%
By December 24, China's cotton 328 index was 21947 yuan / ton, up 0.32% this week. As of December 23, the price index of China's imported cotton (1% tariff) was 19575 yuan / ton, down 0.79% this week. As of December 23, the closing price of cotlooka index (1% tariff) was 19069 yuan / ton, down 0.65% this week. The price difference between inside and outside this week was 2409 yuan / ton, an increase of 263 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.
In November 2021, China's garment industry realized online sales of 122.383 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.15%. In terms of sub categories, the sales of women's wear in November was the highest, reaching 29.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.05%; In November, the average unit price of sports shoes was the highest, reaching 305.09 yuan / pair, a year-on-year decrease of 7.52%.
In November 2021, the export volume of oil tarpaulin, canopy and sunshade was 2.497 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 34.74% and a month on month increase of 6%.
Industry news
Nike's latest quarterly report: Greater China fell by 20%, with strong demand in North America; Dr. Martens: sales are strong, and the price of each pair of shoes will rise by £ 10; Tencent reduced its holdings of JD shares with shares instead of interest.
Risk statement
Second outbreak of the epidemic; Fluctuation risk of raw materials; Systemic risk.
