Core view
Compared with last week, the turnover of new houses and second-hand houses increased this week. The number of new houses sold in 47 cities this week was 56000, up 9.7% month on month and down 12.6% year-on-year; The number of new houses sold in 18 large and medium-sized cities was 36000, up 22.6% month on month and down 13.1% year-on-year; 1、 The number of new houses sold in the second and third tier cities changed by + 20.4%, + 29.4%, - 15.0% month on month, and - 13.3%, + 5.3%, - 67.8% year-on-year respectively. The number of second-hand housing transactions in 16 cities was 13000, with a month on month increase of 2.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 33.3%; The number of second-hand housing transactions in 12 large and medium-sized cities was 12000, an increase of 5.5% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 31.3%; 1、 The number of second-hand housing transactions in the second and third tier cities increased by + 17.0%, + 1.0% and - 1.6% month on month respectively, and the year-on-year growth rates were - 37.0%, - 23.3% and - 44.6% respectively.
Compared with the previous week, the inventory of new houses has increased, and the decontamination cycle has increased compared with the previous week. The inventory of new houses in 15 cities was 1.048 million units, an increase of 6000 units month on month, and the decontamination cycle was 11.8 months, an increase of 0.1 months month on month; The inventory of new houses in 8 large and medium-sized cities was 579000 units, an increase of 8000 units month on month, and the deconvolution cycle was 8.5 months, with no significant change month on month; The inventory of new houses in the first tier cities was 276000 units, an increase of 6000 units month on month, and the deconvolution cycle was 8.1 months, with no significant change month on month. The inventory of new houses in the second tier cities was 211000 units, an increase of 10000 units month on month, the deconvolution cycle was 10.1 months, and a decrease of 0.2 months month on month. The inventory of new houses in the third tier cities was 92000 units, an increase of 1000 units month on month. The decontamination cycle was 7.1 months, an increase of 0.3 months month on month.
Compared with last week, the overall land market increased in volume and fell in price, and the land premium rate decreased. The number of all types of land traded in Baicheng was 366, with a month on month increase of 2.8% and a year-on-year decrease of 69.0%; The planned construction area of the land traded was 22.51 million square meters, a month on month decrease of 7.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 75.2%; The total land transaction price was 28.7 billion yuan, down 55.1% month on month and 85.8% year-on-year; The average floor price of land traded was 1276 yuan / m2, down 51.4% month on month and 42.8% year-on-year; The land premium rate of Baicheng was 1.57%, down 52.4% month on month and 86.2% year-on-year.
Investment advice
This week, the central bank announced that the one-year LPR was cut by 5 basis points to 3.8%; LPR over 5 years was 4.65%, which remained unchanged; LPR was lowered for the first time in 19 months, reflecting that monetary policy is strengthening countercyclical regulation in time to stabilize market expectations; However, the LPR over 5 years remains unchanged, so the impact of this LPR reduction on the real estate is limited. At the same time, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission jointly issued a notice, which clearly pointed out that "support high-quality real estate enterprises to register and issue debt financing instruments in the inter-bank market and raise funds for mergers and acquisitions of risk disposal projects of key real estate enterprises". The central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission encourage high-quality enterprises to increase the collection and acquisition of real estate projects, and increase the support for bond financing, which is conducive to resolving risks, promoting the orderly liquidation of the industry and accelerating the integration of the industry. This week, the heat of the three batches of centralized local auction in Hangzhou rebounded significantly. On the premise that the upper limit of the premium rate was reduced to 10%, the overall premium rate of local auction increased from 2.7% of the second batch to 7%; 68.6% of the plots reached the ceiling price and entered the lottery link. Through the optimization and adjustment of rules, Hangzhou has made a good balance between stabilizing the land price and stabilizing the participation of real estate enterprises, which provides a reference for the subsequent centralized land auction cities.
From the perspective of sector investment, we believe that the end of this year and the beginning of next year may be a better investment time point. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the opportunities of the real estate sector. We suggest to pay attention to: 1) development sectors: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Longhu group and China Resources Land. 2) Property sector: Country Garden service, Xuhui Yongsheng service, China Resources Vientiane life, xinchengyue service and Baolong business.
Risk statement
Real estate regulation continues to upgrade; Sales fell more than expected; Financing continued to tighten.
