Under the background of global core shortage, the electronics sector has walked out of a good market in 2021. From the beginning of the year to December 24, the electronics (CITIC) index rose 16.11%, with the largest increase in the range of 38.52%; in the same period, the CSI 300 fell 5.56%, and the electronics sector outperformed the market by 21.67pct.
A large number of funds poured into the hard science and technology track, and the rotation of semiconductor multi plate has become a hot spot of investment. Affected by the "double reduction" and other policies, the investment enthusiasm in education, entertainment and other sectors has decreased, and the fund's over allocation of electronics has reached the highest in recent five years. From the beginning of the year to December 24, the largest increases in semiconductor equipment, discrete devices, other electronic components, semiconductor materials and integrated circuits were 183.44%, 130.29%, 113.40%, 95.02% and 67.17% respectively.
The core shortage is expected to be alleviated in 2022, and downstream shipments and innovation are the driving factors of the electronics market. With the release of new capacity of OEM and IDM manufacturers, the tight supply of some chips is expected to be alleviated. The driving factors of the electronic sector will return from the lack of core and rising prices to the downstream demand explosion and innovation. The downstream terminals driving the performance of the electronics sector are turning from smartphones to new energy vehicles and photovoltaic wind power, energy storage and other new energy power generation and energy storage equipment. In addition, the innovative development of hard technology in 2022 will continue to provide new investment opportunities for the electronics sector.
The investment logic of the electronic sector in 2022 can be carried out along two ideas. (1) Look for investment opportunities from the outbreak of downstream industries, such as new energy electronics such as automotive electronics and solar energy storage. (2) look for investment opportunities from new concepts, new technologies and new trends, such as "meta universe" And mobile phone manufacturers' self-developed chips, folding screens and 800V voltage platform upgrading of electric vehicles. In addition, according to the historical performance of the market, with the opening of the comprehensive registration system and the establishment of the Beijing stock exchange, the electronic sector is expected to benefit in depth.
In the era of energy reform, new energy electronics take advantage of the trend. With the continuous promotion of the "double carbon" goal, the demand for new energy electronics such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaic wind power energy storage will continue to grow, driving the rapid development of power devices based on IGBT, vehicle specification semiconductors based on MCU, storage and CMOS sensors, and core materials of inductive components based on alloy soft magnetic particle core.
New investment opportunities are bred in new concepts, new technologies and new trends. The explosion of the concept of "meta universe" has driven the rapid iterative development of the VR / AR equipment industry chain. Under the epidemic, the number of home, office and leisure scenes has increased, strengthening the urgent demand for meta universe. Mobile phone manufacturers' self-developed chips and vigorously developing folding screens may become a new round of investment opportunities in the industrial chain. In terms of automotive electronics, the 800V high voltage upgrade of electric vehicles will accelerate the penetration of third-generation semiconductors such as SiC.
The establishment of the Beijing stock exchange + comprehensive registration system has attracted attention to small and medium-sized stocks and new secondary stocks. Beijing stock exchange will attract a large number of Companies in the early stage of the life cycle for listing and financing, and put the investment opportunities in the secondary market in front. The 2021 central economic work conference first proposed the comprehensive registration system, which is expected to become the focus of the capital market in 2022, and the technology companies represented by electronics will usher in good news.
Investment suggestions:
From the perspective of industry, it is recommended to pay attention to two directions: first, new energy electronics; Second, hard science and technology innovation. See the text for specific subject matter. From a market perspective, it is recommended to pay attention to the market value of small and medium-sized new shares and secondary new shares.
Risk tips: terminal demand is less than expected, localization import is less than expected, meta universe landing is less than expected, new technology development is less than expected, etc.
