The steady growth policy continued last week. The interest rate was cut at the beginning of the week, and the LPR was reduced by 5bp in one year; According to media reports, the management supports and encourages mergers and acquisitions of real estate enterprises to improve the liquidity of real estate enterprises; On Friday, the central bank held the fourth quarter regular meeting of the monetary policy committee, which mentioned enhancing the “foresight, accuracy and autonomy” of monetary policy, giving full play to the dual functions of “aggregate and structure” and “adding” structural policy. We believe that the policy of stabilizing real estate may gradually take effect, and the follow-up policies of stabilizing growth and further easing can still be expected.
Since this year, the expected fluctuation has been more high-frequency, and the expected difference should not be captured. It is suggested to pay attention to policy and economic trends. At the beginning of the year, under the catalysis of the policy of wide credit and stable growth, especially the policy of stabilizing real estate, the market of the banking sector can be expected. With the sustained development of the steady growth policy, the economic data bottomed out and may improve marginally, which is also the driving force of the follow-up stock price.
In terms of individual stocks, under the long-term main line of structural reform, operation and management ability may be the core of stock selection. We recommend: Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , and suggest paying attention to Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , etc.
Bank: last week, the A-share banking sector fell by 0.76%, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.67% in the same period, and the A-share banking sector lagged behind the CSI 300 index by 0.08 percentage points. According to the Shenwan industry classification standard, the rise and fall of the banking sector ranked 19 / 29, with more downward adjustments than last week. There are great differences in the adjustment of A-share banking sector, The top gainers were Jiangsu Zijin Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601860) (+ 5.33%), Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) (+ 3.28%), China Citic Bank Corporation Limited(601998) (+ 1.77%), and the top gainers were Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) (- 2.88%), Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) (- 2.10%), Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) (- 1.99%). The H-share sector mostly adjusted upward, and the top gainers were China Minsheng Banking Corp.Ltd(600016) (+ 2.73%), Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China Limited(601398) (+ 2.10%), Bank Of Chongqing Co.Ltd(601963) (+ 1.64%). Among the H-shares, only Harbin Bank (- 1.25%) and China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) (- 1.60%) downward adjustment.
Industry news review: (1) the monetary policy committee of the central bank held a regular meeting in the fourth quarter of 2021: improve the market-oriented interest rate formation and transmission mechanism, optimize the central bank’s policy interest rate system, safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers, better meet the reasonable housing needs of home buyers, and build an institutional mechanism for finance to effectively support the real economy. (2) the central bank announced that the one-year LPR was 3.8% (down 5bp from November), LPR over 5 years was 4.65% (unchanged from November). (3) The central bank announced the operation of the financial market in November: in November, the bond market issued a total of 6.34 trillion yuan, including 0.67 trillion yuan of Chinese bonds, 0.68 trillion yuan of local government bonds, 1.01 trillion yuan of financial bonds, 1.42 trillion yuan of corporate credit and 2.39 trillion yuan of interbank certificates of deposit; in November, the interbank money market traded 1.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.1% and a month-on-month increase of 50.3%; in November, the interbank bond market traded 22.3 trillion yuan of cash bonds , with a daily average of 1.01 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 49.9% and a month on month increase of 19.2%. (4) The central bank, together with the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, issued the notice on doing a good job in M & a financial services for risk disposal projects of key real estate enterprises, encouraged M & A of high-quality projects of real estate enterprises in danger, and increased bond financing support. (5) The central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission organized meetings of major banks: promote banks to actively and steadily promote M & a loan business, and do not blindly withdraw and cut off loans for large real estate enterprises with risks and difficulties.
Market review: (1) capital: this week, the central bank’s open market operation remained stable. The reverse repo investment was 100 billion, the reverse repo maturity was 50 billion, and the 7 / 14 day interest rate remained 2.20% / 2.35%. The 1-day / 7-day / 14-day interbank offered rate decreased by 1bp / 2bp / 1bp to 1.89% / 2.28% / 3.23% respectively. The yield of 1-year / 10-year Treasury bonds increased by 2bp / decreased by 3bp to 2.34% / 2.82%. (2) Financial management: the average annual yield of financial products (Wande) this week decreased 1bp to 1.37% compared with last week. The average annualized yield of Internet financial products on the 7th of this week was 2.14%, up 1bp from last week. (3) Interbank: last week, the interest rate of AAA + interbank certificates of deposit increased by 20bp / 10bp / 2bp to 2.68% / 2.59% / 2.61% respectively in one month / three months / six months. The balance of interbank certificates of deposit at the end of November was 13.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 693.1 billion yuan compared with the end of October.
Risk tip: the deterioration of asset quality caused by economic downturn exceeded expectations.
