In 2021, the transformation of human life by the Internet will continue. Under the guidance of Internet giants and the rendering of media products, "metaverse" has become a common hot word in social public opinion and capital market. Its vision is generally believed to bring the next media migration faced by internet life.
More "immersive" users are the necessary transition to the vision of "meta universe", and sufficient user time is the premise of immersive feeling. Therefore, the creative ability of social entertainment applications with diverse scenes and rich connotation to users' time is its "super ability", which also makes the capital yearning for the "meta universe" choose social entertainment as the preferred track for the future. The number of mobile network users has peaked again, and the high-quality development of the Internet industry continues to focus on the mining of the value of existing users. The improvement of users' digital life deepens their fetters with mobile devices, and the number and duration of use maintain an increasing trend. The breakthrough of hardware technology is the key to realizing the "immersive" experience. With the joint promotion of the concept of metauniverse and the breakthrough of VR equipment sales, China's Internet capital's R & D and investment in VR has entered a new peak. The importance of content products in immersion experience can not be ignored: worldview setting and interaction design are the sources of immersion.
In 2021, we see that "openness" has become the theme of the regulation of the Internet industry, and that individual creative talents and creative enthusiasm have been more comprehensively guaranteed and supported. "Open world" is not only the self requirement of content products for quality and innovation, but also the application of Internet concept. Human yearning for freedom, equality and sharing runs through the development history of the Internet economy. However, with the growth of Internet giant capital and the rise of platform economy, monopoly and closure caused by vicious competition are common. In China, the Anti-monopoly Act issued at the end of last year has been interpreted in detail at the policy level. The state Anti-monopoly Bureau has been officially established, and Baidu, Alibaba, JD, Tencent and didi have been filed for investigation and punishment. "One out of two", user information abuse and link shielding have become the focus of the regulatory authorities.
Game: the prospect of meta universe is attractive, and the prosperity of national tourism depends on innovation. As a mature business form with huge user scale, games are not only the practice base of meta universe related technologies, but also a fertile soil suitable for the growth of meta universe platform and content products. Stimulated by the prospect of meta universe, the global game industry will enter the peak of technology and format innovation. For the Chinese game industry, the saturation of Chinese market competition has accelerated the improvement of industry concentration. The requirements of sub era games for creative planning, engine technology, cross platform operation, social experience and distribution marketing have made a qualitative leap. The development of overseas markets has also entered a deep-water period, and the cultivation of low maturity markets is imminent. Looking back on the past, the rise of national tourism depends on the solid research and transportation foundation and talent reserve of China's game industry. In the future, the prosperity and strength of domestic games also need to be in line with the world's advanced level in engine technology and planning innovation, so as to maintain the steady growth of the industry scale.
Long video: the shortage of supply highlights the value of copyright owners and benefits the leading targets of content. The lack of content supply has become a general consensus in the film and television industry. In recent years, due to the positive actions of the regulatory authorities in strengthening content audit and controlling industrial chaos, the drama production institutions and projects that do not meet the development of the industry have been cleaned up, and the drama production capacity has been significantly reduced, resulting in the imbalance between supply and demand of drama content. The contraction of industry capacity and the contradiction between content supply and demand will benefit the leading enterprises in the drama production industry, and the optimization of copyright protection environment is expected to gain enterprise performance in the long term.
Advertising marketing: the growth rate of consumption is under pressure, and we continue to be optimistic about ladder media and online Red advertising. Compared with the growth rate of more than 30% of the Internet advertising market in 2016-2019, the growth rate of the Internet advertising market has slowed significantly since 2020, and the performance of the head company has declined due to weak consumption and traffic shortage. The improvement of the epidemic situation activates outdoor advertising, and the digital transformation of ladder media welcomes the marketing needs of new consumer brands. Effect advertising continues to be favored, and online Red marketing embraces the new consumption era.
Print publishing: the retail market has not recovered before the epidemic, and the profits of online marketing channels are under pressure. Compared with the same period in 2019, the overall retail market is still in a downturn. In the post epidemic era, the consumption habits of readers have been accelerated, and more people have turned to online store channels, making the recovery of physical bookstores face great difficulties. The proportion of children's books decreased, and theme publishing led the market growth. The discount rate of short video e-commerce channels is reduced, and the discount for children is as low as 3.3%.
Looking back on 2021, the market heat of the media sector has seen the dawn from the downturn. The overall trend of the A-share media sector is "V". The valuation of the sector rebounded to the bottom in the third quarter and soared at the end of the year. The valuation of the sector has not yet come out of the downturn. In 2021, the median P / E ratio of CITIC media index fell from 38.96 times at the beginning of the year to 23.19 times on September 29, and then repaired all the way to 31.68 times at the end of the year (December 15).
Recommended targets for attention: Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) (a high-quality R & D brand with profound technical genes and diversified track layout), G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) (independent mainstream operators and leisure track focus on long-term research and operation), heart company (the content value of the game community is highlighted, and the self-developed new products are expected to develop), Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) (the advantages of content are highlighted, optimistic about the forward-looking layout of Pan entertainment), Zhejiang Huace Film And Tv Co.Ltd(300133) (the leader of Chinese opera deeply cultivates the content ecology and is optimistic about the prospect of business expansion), Focus Media Information Technology Co.Ltd(002027) (riding the east wind of the new consumption track, the ladder media giant ship is determined to sail far), Inmyshow Digital Technology (Group) Co.Ltd(600556) (riding the wind and leading the popular economy).
Risk tips: macro environmental risk (national economic growth status, changes in residents' disposable income, prosperity of consumer market, etc.); regulatory policy risk (distribution of edition numbers of publications such as games, books and periodicals, audio-visual products, film and television project audit system, advertising market governance, changes in tax preferential policies, changes in content copyright policies, etc.); project promotion risk (change of shooting site; damage of shooting equipment; unexpected adjusted cost of actors; unexpected cost of R & D or operation technology, cancellation of the project due to changes in market demand, etc.); content infringement risk (the creative team intentionally or unintentionally infringes the existing copyright in the title, plot, image, shooting method, etc. of the content product).
