New regulations on automobile carbon emission in the United States: on December 20, United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued the latest version of vehicle emission regulations, which will take effect and be finalized within 60 days. The version requires that the average carbon emission of all vehicles sold in the United States will be reduced to 161g / mile in 2026, and will be reduced by 9.8%, 5.1%, 6.6% and 10.3% respectively from 2023 to 2026. Compared with the August version, it will remain unchanged from 2023 to 2024, and will be tightened by 1.7% and 7.2% respectively from 2025 to 2026. Compared with the trump government version in 2020 , 16.7%, 16.8%, 18.2% and 22.8% respectively from 2023 to 2026.
Tracking of battery installed capacity of new energy vehicles: the installed capacity of power batteries continued to rise in November, and the installed capacity of Sanyuan and iron lithium increased month on month; In mid November, the installed capacity of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicle battery was 20.8gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 96.2% and a month on month increase of 35.1%. From January to November 2021, the cumulative installed capacity of power battery in this year reached 128.3gwh, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 153.1%. Among them, the installed capacity of ternary battery this month was 9.2gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 57.7% and a month-on-month increase of 32.5%. The cumulative installed capacity in 2021 was 63.3gwh, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 92.5%. The installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery in this month was 11.6gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 145.3% and a month-on-month increase of 37.2%. The cumulative installed capacity in 2021 was 64.8gwh, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 270.3%. In the installed capacity of batteries in November, ternary batteries accounted for 44%, -1pct; Iron lithium battery accounts for 56%, + 1PCT. According to the installed capacity data in November, the installed capacity of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile battery ternary and iron lithium continued to rise in the same cycle, and the proportion of lithium iron phosphate battery exceeded ternary and maintained a slight increase in the same cycle.
Suggestion: the recent continuous rise in the price of lithium carbonate has caused the market to worry about the downstream demand. The recent market fluctuation of the new energy vehicle industry chain has intensified. On the one hand, the expansion of the new energy vehicle industry chain is still in the early stage, and the cost reduction brought by the release of new capacity and process improvement in the whole industry in the future has not been fully reflected. On the other hand, the current downstream demand still shows a high boom, China Automobile Association predicts that the sales volume of electric vehicles will reach 5 million next year, a year-on-year increase of 47%. Recently, the upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain have frequently signed cooperation agreements / purchase agreements. Under the background of continuous large-scale shipment of new energy vehicles and power batteries from downstream customers and rapid release of energy storage demand, the demand for guarantee and supply from downstream customers has increased, which is also a symbol of the high prosperity of the midstream battery material link in the future. We will continue to pay attention to the midstream link with good competition pattern, Optimistic about leading companies with cost advantages and performance advantages: 1) lithium battery manufacturers: the cost is expected to be transmitted to downstream host plants, and the inflection point of profit expectation is emerging; 2) Lithium copper foil race track: the supply gap is the most deterministic. From the fourth quarter of 2021 to 2022, the processing fee of lithium copper foil will continue to rise, the supply gap will expand, and the leading enterprises will increase both volume and price; 3) Diaphragm track with good competition pattern and profitability: the gross profit margin of the head diaphragm enterprise has remained above 40% in recent three years. The head enterprise has full production and sales. Under the rigid production expansion cycle, the leader gives priority to the growth of the demand market. With the advancement of the overseas electrification process, the proportion of overseas customers of the enterprise is increased, which is expected to further improve the profitability; 4) Cathode & precursor: the growth rate of production and sales is considerable, the demand space for lithium iron phosphate is open in the future, the trend of high nickel of ternary cathode is clear, and leading enterprises actively expand production to seize the market share of high-end precursors; 5) Electrolyte race track: with the expansion of electrolyte production, the market is worried about its periodicity. The head company benefits from long-term association orders, the impact of price disturbance will be stabilized next year, and the cost and profit advantages will be further highlighted by adding new lithium salt business; 6) Lithium battery equipment: during the high-speed growth period of the 14th five year plan, the power battery started the second production expansion tide, superimposed with the rapid growth of overseas demand, the main lithium battery manufacturers accelerated their layout in Europe, and China’s leading lithium battery equipment enterprises will obtain new demand growth points
Risk statement
The production and sales of new energy vehicles are less than expected, and the policy is less than expected; New orders or delivery lower than expected; Risks of technology renewal; Risk of intensified market competition; Supply chain shortage risk, etc.
