2022 will be a new starting point for reshaping the pattern of the automobile industry.
The automobile industry is undergoing the fourth great change. 1) The "first half" of the reform is electrification: the penetration of new energy vehicles is accelerated, and the global penetration is expected to exceed 7% in 2021; From January to September in 2021, the market shares of Germany and the United States were 25.7%, 18.4% and 16.6% respectively, and China emerged. 2) The "second half" of the reform is intelligent: intelligent driving is gradually approaching. Taking China as an example, in the first half of 2021, the carrying rate of new intelligent cockpit vehicles in China reached 13.9%, an increase of 4.5pct year-on-year; It is estimated that the penetration rate of L2 ADAS in China will be about 18% in 2021, entering a period of rapid popularization.
In 2022, smart cars are expected to enter a growth period and usher in pattern reconstruction. It is estimated that in 2022, the global penetration rate of new energy vehicles will exceed 10%, and the penetration rate of L2 ADAS will exceed 20%. Intelligent vehicles are expected to enter the growth period, the technology will be gradually finalized, the entry barriers will be improved, and the competition pattern will be gradually clear. 1) Capability change: the core elements of smart car competition are transferred from manufacturing and supply chain management to software. Traditional OEMs with successful creation of new forces and software capabilities will gradually win. Chinese and American OEMs are leading in the core technology and talent level of electrification and intelligence, and the probability of winning is higher. 2) From the perspective of industrial foundation, market scale, consumer demand insight and core technology, the world automobile industry center is expected to transfer to China.
Investment prospect of automobile industry in 2022: the balance is inclined to automobile parts, and the intelligent automobile industry chain is expected to usher in a wave of performance release.
1) Auto parts: Tesla cycle and independent rise dual wheel drive, and the balance tilts towards the parts. Tesla's technology is globally leading and on the eve of volume explosion. The shipment is expected to double in 2022, driving the first wave of volume of domestic parts; The trend of independent rise is clear, and it is expected to refuel domestic parts in the air. It is estimated that the revenue CAGR of parts companies will exceed 20% from 2021 to 2025, and the growth rate of small and medium-sized enterprises is expected to be faster; PE hub, a global parts giant, has 15 times the growth rate (1% - 2%) in the past decade; domestic parts have high growth and are expected to open the valuation space. Investment suggestions: Tesla industrial chain pays attention to Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , and lightweight pays attention to Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) .
2) Smart car: high end hardware loading speeds up, and the smart car industry chain is expected to usher in a wave of performance release. High end intelligent hardware, such as high-power chips and lidar, is expected to be loaded and mass produced in 2022, promoting the penetration of intelligent driving into L2 +. It is estimated that the market scale of China's passenger car ADAS will be 104.8 billion yuan in 2025, and the CAGR will be 26.9% from 2021 to 2025; Investment suggestion: the smart car industry chain is expected to usher in a wave of performance release in 2022. It is recommended to pay attention to Foryou Corporation(002906) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) .
3) Passenger cars: the revaluation tour may have ended, and the profit factor is expected to return to the dominant position. With Tesla's stable scale profit, after the valuation was switched from PS to PE, the journey of vehicle value revaluation came to an end; In the later stage, the trend of the plate mainly depends on the profitability of the industry. Investment suggestion: it is suggested to pay attention to Geely Automobile, which is currently at the bottom right of the product cycle and is expected to release its performance next year.
Risk tips: 1) the rise of independent brands is less than expected; 2) Tesla's volume is lower than expected; 3) The supply side improvement of chip and raw material prices is less than expected; 4) The downstream demand for automobiles was lower than expected.
