Industry core view:
Last week (December 20-december 24, 2021), the Shenwan machinery and equipment industry index rose by – 2.2%, the CSI 300 index rose by – 0.7%, and the machinery industry lost 1.5pct compared with the CSI 300 index. 12 of Shenwan’s 31 primary industries rose, and the machinery and equipment industry ranked 25th, with the overall performance in the lower reaches.
Photovoltaic equipment: 97.05gw of the first batch of large-scale scenery base projects, Mai HJT equipment was included in the list of major energy and technology equipment items of the first Energy Bureau. The official account of the first batch of large-scale wind power and photovoltaic base construction projects focused on desert, Gobi and desert areas issued by the national energy board and the national development and Reform Commission, involving 19 provinces, has a total scale of 97.05GW. According to the public number, Mai has launched a Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) The innovative technology of battery screen printing – full opening Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) battery steel plate printing technology is expected to save about 20% silver paste. The technology has the following advantages: 1) process advantages: the height width ratio of gate wire is more than 50%, 26 microns wide and 13-14 microns high; In the future, the opening of steel plate can be further reduced and the line width can be controlled to 20 microns; Compatible with 210mm silicon wafer size, the number of grid lines can be doubled compared with screen printing, which further improves the efficiency of hjt battery. 2) Cost advantage: the printing height is uniform, and the silver paste can be saved by about 20% under the condition of manufacturing batteries with the same efficiency; The overall cost is close to the cost of the existing screen, without additional material costs; The transformation cost is low, which can be realized only by small-scale transformation on the existing printing equipment. It is recommended to pay attention to the equipment update requirements brought by the battery technology change.
Lithium battery equipment: in November, the production and marketing of electric vehicles in China reached a new record, with a penetration rate of 17.8%. According to the data of China Automobile Association, the production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in mid November were 457000 and 450000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3 times and 1.2 times respectively. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to set a new record, with a penetration rate of 17.8% in November. From January to November 2021, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery output was 188.1gwh, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 184.1%; China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) the installed capacity of battery is 128.3gwh, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 153.1%. According to the statistics of starting point lithium battery, 25 enterprises including Ningde, Byd Company Limited(002594) , China Innovation airlines and Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) have a total planned capacity of 1894gwh. In addition, overseas lithium battery manufacturers are expected to accelerate their production expansion next year. It is suggested to pay attention to the lithium battery equipment enterprises that are the leaders of integrated lithium battery equipment and benefit from overseas expansion.
Semiconductor equipment: the global semiconductor equipment market demand remains strong, and the global core shortage is expected to continue until the first half of 22 years. In November, North American semiconductor equipment manufacturers shipped us $3.93 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 50.6%, the highest in history. In November 2021, China imported 332975 sets of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, with an import amount of US $3.27 billion. From January to November, the quantity and amount of imported semiconductor manufacturing equipment increased by 652.7% and 33.5% respectively year-on-year. Semi expects the global sales of semiconductor equipment to exceed US $100 billion this year and US $114 billion in 22 years. It takes a long time for semiconductor equipment to be imported into customers, which generally takes one to two years. It is recommended to pay attention to the replacement of domestic semiconductor equipment that has made technological breakthroughs, such as cleaning and etching.
Construction machinery: in November, the market of excavators outside China continued to differentiate, and the total sales volume decreased by 36.6% year-on-year. According to the statistics of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, 20444 excavators were sold in November 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 36.6%; Including 14014 sets in China, a year-on-year decrease of 51.4%; 6430 sets were exported, a year-on-year increase of 89%. From January to November 2021, 318746 excavators were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 7.66%; Including 258934 sets in China, a year-on-year decrease of 2.49%; 59812 sets were exported, with a year-on-year increase of 95.9%.
Risk factors: the investment in fixed assets is less than expected, the industrialization of heterojunction is less than expected, the issuance of special bonds is less than expected, and the industry competition intensifies the risk.
