Core view
The origin of agricultural investment: inflation is α， Looking back on history, it is found that under the background of strong inflation, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sector often has obvious excess returns. We believe that there is still some room for China's core CPI to repair in 2022, which will drive the CPI to rise quarter by quarter, and the agricultural sector may show a strong trend of shock due to inflation.
Planting chain: under the background of tight supply and demand, we are optimistic about corn, soybean (soybean meal), wheat and sugar next year. Benefiting from the promotion of food security and seed industry, genetically modified corn may be the first to land in 2022, and the corn seed industry is expected to usher in strong capacity expansion. It is suggested to pay attention to the leaders of high-quality seed industry.
Recommendation: [ Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) ] many transgenic traits have been approved, with obvious first mover advantage. The company's transgenic maize varieties dbn9858, dbn9936 and dbn9501 have obtained safety certificates, and the number is the largest among peers. If the transgenic commercial seed production is implemented in the third quarter of next year, it is expected to take the lead in benefiting; [ Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) ] Rice and corn seeds are the leaders, with outstanding advantages of traditional varieties and rich reserves of transgenic technology in joint-stock companies; [ Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) ] corn seed is the leader. The company's delivery in the new sales season is good. Under the corn market next year, the performance is expected to reach a new high and fully digest the existing valuation.
Pig breeding: the short-term production capacity shows a trend of de industrialization. Based on the absolute inflection point of the number of fertile sows in June this year, the maximum supply of pigs should appear in April and may next year, corresponding to the second bottom of pig prices. The average market value of listed pig enterprises has fallen to the historical bottom. It is suggested to grasp the investment opportunities on the left side of the plate; The long-term benefits are concentrated on a large scale, and there are still overtaking opportunities for the capacity expansion of listed pig enterprises.
Recommendation: [ Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) ] the cost improvement continues to be realized, and the production capacity reserve of sows is rich to support the growth of marketing; [ New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) ] the efficiency of breeding sows continues to improve, there is a large room for cost reduction, and the capital reserve is sufficient to support the capacity expansion in cold winter. The current valuation can provide a high margin of safety; [ Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) ] self breeding has created core cost advantages, steadily expanding production capacity and firmly taking the leading position; [ Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) ] the cost control industry is leading, and the growth can be expected. We will work together with feed, animal protection, slaughtering and food processing to layout the whole industrial chain. Secondly, it is suggested to pay attention to the cost improvement and cashing degree of [ Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) ] [ Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) ] [ Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) ] [ Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) ] and other enterprises and the changes of breeding sows.
Meat and poultry: the upstream supply pressure of white feather chicken is still large, and the industrial chain is deeply losing or forcing the upstream to reduce production capacity. Pay attention to the regulation rhythm of production capacity of chicken farms. The long-term extension of industrial chain is expected to bring valuation remodeling. It is recommended that [ Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) ] layout the whole industrial chain of white feather chicken, the downstream meat processing business develops rapidly and steadily improves the profitability. Secondly, recommend the elastic target [ Shandong Minhe Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(002234) ] [ Shandong Yisheng Livestock & Poultry Breeding Co.Ltd(002458) ] of the main chicken seedling sales business in the upstream of the industrial chain.
The upstream production capacity of yellow feather chicken has shrunk significantly. It is expected to continue to pick up in 2022 and grasp the growth dividend of chilled products for a long time. Recommend [ Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) ] the absolute leader of Chinese yellow feather chicken market); [ Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) ] rapid expansion of production capacity and leading cost control industry; [ Hunan Xiangjia Animal Husbandry Company Limited(002982) ] yellow feather chicken is the leading ice fresh product, and the increase of sales volume of ice fresh products drives the improvement of profitability.
Vaccine: the short-term pig price has dragged down the prosperity of the industry, and the investment value of the sector has been realized; The long-term benefit of large-scale breeding drives the increase of market seedling penetration, and there is still incremental space in the pig seedling plate.
Recommendation: [ China Animal Husbandry Industry Co.Ltd(600195) ] the market of foot-and-mouth disease seedlings is growing rapidly, chemical drugs benefit from prohibition and resistance, and environmental protection policies are outstanding; [ Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) ] R & D investment continues to increase, with abundant reserves of advantageous products; [ Jinyu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(600201) ] the market of foot-and-mouth disease is leading, and new products support long-term growth.
Risk statement
The sales volume of enterprises is less than expected;
Large scale outbreak of animal diseases;
Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) the price fluctuates greatly;
Covid-19 epidemic situation is repeated;
Impact of natural disasters.
