Key investment points:
PCB is the mother of electronic products, and the market scale is growing steadily. As a transmission medium, PCB can realize the interconnection between electronic components and play the role of relay transmission. It is the support of electronic components. In 2019, the global PCB output value was US $61.3 billion, with an average annual compound growth rate of 2.18% from 2008 to 19, with overall steady growth. The Chinese mainland market benefited from the global PCB capacity transfer to the mainland and the growth of downstream terminal demand. In recent years, the PCB market has seen a relatively fast development trend. In the 19 year, the PCB output value of Chinese mainland reached 33 billion 507 million US dollars, and the 08-19 composite growth rate reached 7.56% annually.
Raw material cost pressure eased, and PCB enterprise 21q3 ushered in a performance inflection point. Since 2021, factors such as limited supply / strong demand / loose monetary policy have jointly promoted the rise of commodity raw material prices and affected the profitability of downstream PCB enterprises. After entering Q3, as the epidemic situation in the main copper producing countries eased, superimposed enterprises began to transfer part of the cost pressure to the downstream, the impact of raw material prices on enterprise performance was passivated, and the profitability of the sector was repaired. PCB plate 21q3 achieved a revenue of 53.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.7%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 5.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.2%. The gross profit margin of 21q3 sales of the sector was 20.9%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4pct, the net profit margin of sales was 9.6%, a year-on-year increase of 0.7pct, the profit growth began to turn positive, and the profitability improved. The sector ushered in a performance inflection point.
China's PCB products are mainly medium and low-end, and pay attention to the domestic substitution process of high-end products such as IC carrier board and high-end HDI. At present, China's PCB products are mainly medium and low-end PCBs, but have a low share in high-end PCB fields such as packaging substrate and high-order HDI, and the product structure needs to be optimized. With the PCB enterprises represented by XINGSEN and Shennan successively expanding the high-end PCB production capacity such as IC carrier board, the voice of domestic enterprises in the field of high-end PCB is expected to be improved. It is suggested to pay attention to relevant beneficiary enterprises.
Risk warning: price fluctuation of raw materials; Downstream demand is not as expected; Intensified industry competition, etc.
