Industry perspective
2021 is the first year of lidar, with 19 models equipped with lidar. At the Guangzhou auto show in November, many models equipped with lidar appeared one after another, among which the Great Wall mechatron became the world’s first model equipped with four lidars, the Xiaopeng G9 equipped with dual lidars, and the extreme fox alpha s Huawei version equipped with three lidars. The Zhiji L7 released in December also announced that it will be equipped with lidar in the future. According to our statistics, a total of 19 models can be equipped with lidar in 2021. The existing lidar models are generally higher than 400000 yuan, and the price of on-board front mounted lidar is generally higher than 5000 yuan. Previously, Huawei announced that the cost of lidar will be reduced to 1000 yuan in the future. We believe that with the decline of lidar price in the future, the industry penetration rate is expected to increase rapidly.
L3 level automatic driving has made a historic breakthrough and helped accelerate the penetration of lidar. In December, Germany approved Mercedes Benz’s L3 class automatic driving system. At present, Mercedes Benz’s S class and EQS two vehicles will take the lead in carrying the L3 class automatic driving system, which is expected to be delivered in the first half of next year. The two vehicles are equipped with the Valeo second generation SCALA laser radar.
Together with Byd Company Limited(002594) , Suteng juchuang will drive the rapid and large-scale development of China’s lidar industry in 2022. December Byd Company Limited(002594) reached a strategic investment agreement and strategic cooperation framework agreement with Suteng juchuang in Shenzhen. Suteng juchuang was founded in 2014 and has 600 patents by 2020. At present, it is the only enterprise in the world to realize the mass production and delivery of the second-generation intelligent solid-state lidar, and has been designated by a number of automobile enterprises, including Xiaopeng automobile, Byd Company Limited(002594) , GAC AIAN, Weima automobile, jikrypton, Zhiji and other models. It is expected to drive the rapid volume of lidar industry in 2022 in the future.
Demand side: it is estimated that the market scale will reach 50 billion yuan and CAGR will exceed 80% in 2025. Lidar is mainly used in driverless vehicles and advanced auxiliary driving in the field of vehicle. 1) Driverless taxi and unmanned logistics services can eliminate the labor cost accounting for up to 60% of the operating cost in traditional travel services, so they have a wide range of commercial value and profit space. In October 2020, baidu opened driverless taxi service in Beijing, and passengers can try Apollo for free. According to Sullivan, By 2025, the market scale of lidar in unmanned field is expected to reach USD 3.5 billion (equivalent to 23 billion yuan), the average annual compound growth rate of 2019-2025 years is 80.9%. 2. Lidar is the key sensor for L3 and above autopilot. With the gradual production of L3 vehicles, lidar will gain market volume. According to Sullivan, the market of advanced auxiliary driving lidar in 2025 is expected to reach US $4 billion 610 million. (equivalent to RMB 30 billion), with a compound growth rate of 83.7% from 2019 to 2025.
Supply side: the industry is still in the introduction period, and the pattern is uncertain. 1) Lidar players worldwide include velodyne, luminar, AEVA, ibeo, Ouster and innoviz, as well as Huawei, Dajiang, Hesai technology, Suteng juchuang, Vanjee Technology Co.Ltd(300552) and other enterprises in China. The main A-share listed company is Vanjee Technology Co.Ltd(300552) . On December 16, at the world intelligent vehicle conference held in Guangzhou, Vanjee Technology Co.Ltd(300552) released the hybrid solid-state 128 line vehicle specification lidar, and the product is positioned as medium and long-range lidar. The company has built phase II of Shunyi scientific research base, with a planned annual production capacity of 300000 units. According to the investor interaction platform, the company’s laser products will achieve a revenue of more than 100 million yuan in 2020. 2) Optical system is an important part of lidar. Chinese lidar parts suppliers include sunny optics, Ningbo Yong Xin Optics Co.Ltd(603297) , Ju Guang technology, Zhejiang Lante Optics Co.Ltd(688127) , Zhejiang Crystal-Optech Co.Ltd(002273) , Optowide Technologies Co.Ltd(688195) . Shunyu optics has the manufacturing capacity of lidar optical components and complete machine. Mechanical, rotating mirror, MEMS, flash and OPA schemes are involved. It cooperates with Magna, h, D and other lidar scheme providers. It is expected that projects will enter mass production next year. Ningbo Yong Xin Optics Co.Ltd(603297) reached 25000 orders for laser ranging lenses with quanergysystems in 2018. At present, a number of lidar lens products have been imported in cooperation with Hesai and innovation. At present, it is in the verification and import stage and has not yet formed mass production. Ju Guang Technology’s lidar launch module has signed a framework agreement of 400 million yuan with mainland Germany, and has reached cooperation intention with velodyne, luminar and other well-known lidar enterprises. The sales revenue of H1 company’s intelligent assisted driving industry will be 31 million yuan and 21 million yuan in 2020 and 2021. Zhejiang Lante Optics Co.Ltd(688127) mainly provides aspherical lens for laser radar enterprises, Zhejiang Crystal-Optech Co.Ltd(002273) mainly provides window glass for laser radar enterprises.
Investment advice
We are optimistic that under the wave of intelligent driving, the lidar industry will expand rapidly. It is suggested to pay active attention to sunny optics, Ningbo Yong Xin Optics Co.Ltd(603297) , torch technology, Zhejiang Lante Optics Co.Ltd(688127) , Vanjee Technology Co.Ltd(300552) .
Risk statement
Intelligence is less than expected, industry competition intensifies, and technology iteration risks.
