1、 This week’s review and topic:
This week, Shenwan pharmaceutical index rose 0.53%, ranking 10th in the whole industry, outperforming Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index and gem index. In this week’s special topic, we conducted an in-depth re analysis on the performance of traditional Chinese medicine and believed that the market of traditional Chinese medicine will gradually differentiate after the general rise. It is still recommended to pay attention to the targets of the three elements of “undervalued value”, “marginal positive change” and “price increase” in the medium and short term.
2、 Recent resumption:
The overall index performance of medicine this week is warmer than that of last week, mainly reflected in the two-level differentiation between “traditional Chinese medicine plate” and “CXO plate”: first, the traditional Chinese medicine plate has “relatively undervalued value”, “good chip structure” and “policy environment encouragement” “Marginal positive change (price increase, incentive)” And other factors have become the beneficial direction of the seesaw effect of funds within the pharmaceutical sector and even at the industry level. Second, CXO, the final consensus plate of medicine, made a sharp correction without changes in fundamental logic, which means that the periodic collapse of core asset values has come to an end and the market style has become more balanced. Third, some “epidemic theme” targets continue to perform strongly, such as Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) , Fujian Cosunter Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300436) , Staidson(Beijing) Biopharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(300204) , etc. In the same sentence, the grand view has not changed. Medicine has entered the long-term configuration range, and the bottom is patient and upward. In the first half of 2022, the bottom-up stock selection strategy relying on the track rather than the track should be the main tone.
3、 Plate view:
1. Thinking from the perspective of several years: if pharmaceutical investment has paid more attention to “selecting the head company of the main track and enjoying valuation expansion” in the past 3-4 years, it should pay more attention to “individual stock cost performance under valuation digestion” this year. Although they are structural opportunities, their expressions are different. Facing the short-term weakness of medicine, we have stretched our eyes. What is the essence of the long-term growth of the pharmaceutical industry? It is the long-term pull of just demand for medicine and the long-term pull of health consumption upgrading, and the current demand satisfaction and penetration rate are very low, which is the most long-term logic of medicine. However, because of people’s concerns about the reform policy of the payment end, people seem to ignore this essence. The payment end policy will not be the long-term logic restriction of a rigid industry, which is at most a medium-term and short-term interference item. In the medium and long term, we are optimistic. GDP growth is in the downward stage, the economic structure continues to adjust, and China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) industry is in the early stage of growth, there is a reverse scissors gap, and the comparative advantage is strengthened. With the release of the population data of Qipu, China’s population structure is undergoing great changes. In the future, the development logic of many industries driven by the huge demographic dividend will face great changes. The market will pay more and more attention to and look for industries with comparative advantages of incremental attributes, Medicine is the industry with long logical cycle and strong certainty (aging intensifies the expansion of just needed medicine and the upgrading of health consumption intensifies the penetration of consumer medicine). In the future, the allocation of funds for consumer medicine will strengthen the allocation of medicine from the medium and long-term dimensions, resulting in the improvement of the overall water level of medicine, which is optimistic for a long time. The long-term 4 + X strategic thinking remains unchanged: the upgrading of medical science and technology, the upgrading of medical consumption, the upgrading of medical manufacturing, the upgrading of medical model, etc 。
2. In the short and medium term: the main tone of medicine this year is to digest the valuation. The apparent reason is that it is not dominant compared with other industry sectors and the expected interference brought by the policy. Under its influence, it is difficult for medicine this year to be as powerful as in previous years. In the direction of short-term allocation, on the basis of avoiding poor policy expectations, bottom-up stock selection is the best policy. One direction is to select low-level assets. The three elements of clean chips, low valuation and changes are indispensable, and the consideration of fundamental factors can be relatively weakened. The other direction is to select “specialization and innovation”. For core assets, the last consistency segment CXO and the last consistency target Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) of medicine have been significantly adjusted without any change in the fundamental logic recently. We think it is already the characteristic of the bottom of core assets of medicine. From the perspective of long-term dimension, we can gradually begin to configure the core assets of “transaction clearing and relative valuation clearing”, Select core assets with relatively cheap valuation in 2023, but investors need to weigh “time cost” and “expected rate of return” to trade time for space.
3. Configuration idea:
Manufacturing upgrade: (1) biomedical upstream ( Tofflon Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(300171) , Truking Technology Limited(300358) , Zhejiangtailin Bioengineering Co.Ltd(300813) , Focused Photonics (Hangzhou) Inc(300203) ) (2) differentiated cdmo ( Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Pharmaron Beijing Co.Ltd(300759) , Pharmablock Sciences (Nanjing) Inc(300725) , Shanghai Medicilon Inc(688202) ) (3) API systematic upgrade ( Zhejiang Starry Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603520) ) (4) injection export ( Nanjing King-Friend Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603707) , Hainan Poly Pharm.Co.Ltd(300630) ) (5) other specialized and special new ( Novogene Co.Ltd(688315) ).
Innovation Upgrading: (1) CGT ( Zhejiangtailin Bioengineering Co.Ltd(300813) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Northland) (2) platform innovation recovery ( Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) ) (3) innovation internationalization ( Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) ) (4) nuclear medicine ( Yantai Dongcheng Biochemicals Co.Ltd(002675) ).
Consumption upgrading: (1) brand traditional Chinese medicine: Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600976) , Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , Henan Lingrui Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600285) , Hubei Jumpcan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600566) . (2) vaccine: Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) , Chengdu Olymvax Biopharmaceuticals Inc(688319) ; (3) medical services: Ningbo Sanxing Medical Electric Co.Ltd(601567) , Xi’An International Medical Investment Company Limited(000516) , Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) , Inkon Life Technology Co.Ltd(300143) , Guizhou Xinbang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002390) ; (4) ophthalmology: Shenyang Xingqi Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300573) , Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology Co.Ltd(688366) ;
Continuous repair of core assets: Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) , Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) .
Other long-term tracking and promising targets are: Novogene Co.Ltd(688315) {{ Novogene Co.Ltd(688315) { Novogene Co.Ltd(688315) {{{605186186} Pacific Shuanglin Bio-Pharmacy Co.Ltd(000403) Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) {000538 8} {{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{0008166} {{{{{{605186186186186186} {{{{{605186186186186} {{605186186186186} {{605186186186186} {{{{{{000403403403403403}} { Pacific Shuanglin Bio-Pharmacy Co.Ltd(000403) {{{00003030303403403403}} {{{{0000300003030303030303030303038}}} {{{{{{{{0000024242422}}}}}, Lepu Medical Technology (Beijing) Co.Ltd(300003) Jointown Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600998) , Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co.Ltd(603939) , Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) , Dashenlin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(603233) , Yixintang Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002727) , Joincare Pharmaceutical Group Industry Co.Ltd(600380) , Guangzhou Jet Bio-Filtration Co.Ltd(688026) , Shanghai Kindly Enterprises Development Group Co.Ltd(603987) , etc.
Risk tips: 1) negative policies continue to exceed expectations; 2) The growth rate of the industry is lower than expected; 3) There may be errors in assumptions or calculations.
