Review: 2021 is a downward year for policy concerns and epidemic desensitization. The pharmaceutical policy has guided all previous changes in the industry and runs through the whole process of pharmaceutical development. In recent years, the main tone of the pharmaceutical policy is to reduce prices and control fees. 2020-2021 is a year of continuous deepening of national and local joint mining of medicine. In particular, 2021 is the year with the highest frequency of national and local centralized mining over the years, and the policy pressure is stronger than in the past years. Covid-19 performance increment is a double-edged sword, which thickens the current performance in the short term, but the high growth brought by the long-term benefit of the epidemic is difficult to sustain. The performance growth of some companies related to the demand for anti epidemic next year may face the pressure of high base this year. Under the dual pressure of policy concerns and epidemic desensitization, the pharmaceutical industry did not perform well this year. Pharmaceutical biology fell 6.93%, 4 percentage points lower than Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, ranking 22nd in all 28 SW primary industries.
Prediction: Several Issues to be paid attention to next year. First, adapt to the new normal of centralized procurement, but the total demand for medicine will continue to grow, and the centralized procurement policy will tend to be moderate next year; Second, the differentiation may be more obvious, and the imbalance between cold and hot plates intensifies; Third, covid-19 has obvious influenza characteristics in the future, and the varieties related to specific drugs deserve attention.
Investment strategy of the pharmaceutical industry in 2022: centralized procurement, extensive generalization and normalization of industry differentiation. Next year, we are optimistic about the subdivided industries such as biological products, innovative drug industry chain, non pharmaceutical devices, pharmacies and upstream raw and auxiliary packaging materials.
Biological products: during the 14th Five Year Plan period, the plasma station plans were issued, and the scale bottleneck of the blood products industry may be lifted, with the temple of heaven and Boya being the first; The vaccine industry is squeezed by covid-19 vaccination this year, and the traditional vaccination is affected. The probability will return to normal next year. At the same time, the epidemic situation has educated the importance of national vaccination. Relevant companies will have major products on the market next year, but we should pay attention to the impact of the decline in covid-19 vaccine performance.
Innovative pharmaceutical industry chain (innovative pharmaceutical enterprises and CXO): there is no change in the policy to encourage pharmaceutical machinery innovation, there is a strong demand for drug R & D, and the investment and financing market continues to be hot; Chinese CXO enterprises demonstrate international competitiveness and continue to expand production. The general logic of the industry has not changed. It is suggested to weaken the valuation factors and strategically allocate the CXO industry for a long time.
Cost effective choice: medical devices, chain pharmacies. The equipment focuses on ophthalmology and rehabilitation equipment. The prosperity of Ophthalmology track is high, and the leader of corneal shaping lens is concerned. China's rehabilitation industry is backward, benefiting from the aging population. It is a rising sunrise industry. Focus on Xiangyumedicalco.Ltd(688626) and so on. Upstream raw and auxiliary packaging materials: China's R & D investment in life sciences continues to grow rapidly. It is expected that the CAGR will be 15.3% from 2015 to 2024, which is much higher than that of the world in the same period; Research investment is also second only to the United States and Europe, accounting for about 8.3% in the world. The epidemic situation fully shows the development prospect and toughness of China's scientific research reagents, especially biological reagent enterprises. Jiankai technology, Acrobiosystems Co.Ltd(301080) , Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) , Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass Co.Ltd(600529) are preferred.
Risk tip: centralized purchase and other pharmaceutical policies are too strict, and some industries have valuation callback risk and system risk.
