The computer sector lost the market and continued to fluctuate. The computer sector has experienced three cycles of ups and downs in the past 15 years. As of December 20, the computer (Shenwan) index fell by 1.22%, 4.69 percentage points lower than the Shanghai index. The sector fell in the first and third quarters and rose in the second and fourth quarters, with an overall shock.
Boom track and theme plate performed well, and the growth of second and third tier targets was better. Throughout the year, on the one hand, the prosperity track targets such as electric power, military industry, industry and intelligent driving performed well. On the other hand, the theme directions such as yuancosmos, Hongmeng and digital currency performed in turn. The shock digestion and valuation of the leading targets. On the whole, the computer sector still showed the trend of increasing industry concentration and gathering to the leading companies. In terms of performance, the industry revenue in the first three quarters increased by 21.17% year-on-year, 16.09 percentage points higher than that in the same period of 20 years, but the overall profit decreased slightly.
Computer core logic: technological change + policy promotion. As a typical upstream industry, the computer industry, The main downstream demand sources are g-end (government) and b-end (large and medium-sized enterprises), while the informatization needs of g-end and b-end are affected by technological change and policy promotion. Therefore, the continuous growth logic of the computer industry in the past 15 years is: on the one hand, the policy accelerates the improvement of localization rate and informatization rate, and on the other hand, the change of technology industry leads to new business model and market demand.
Investment logic: for 22 years, we think we can layout from the following three dimensions and focus on tracking two changes.
1. Continue to layout downstream prosperous tracks, such as electric it, intelligent driving, aiot, military it, etc. the subject of prosperous tracks has continued to rise in the past two years, with a large increase. Most of the subject valuations have been at a high level and overdrawn for a long future growth. Therefore, for the layout of prosperous tracks in the past 22 years, attention should be paid to the sustainability of industry prosperity and new catalysts, Choose the right time to intervene.
2. On the left, there are sectors with reversed demand in 22 years, especially the network security and medical insurance it sectors with policy catalysis. The adjustment time of the above sectors is long, and the valuation of the sector is at the bottom of history. Once the demand recovers and the growth recovers in 22 years, it is expected to obtain the benefits of performance growth and valuation recovery at the same time.
3. Leading white horse targets with increasingly reasonable layout and valuation, such as Hundsun Technologies Inc(600570) , Yonyou Network Technology Co.Ltd(600588) , Kingdee International, Mingyuan cloud, Sangfor Technologies Inc(300454) , Glodon Company Limited(002410) , Beijing Kingsoft Office Software Inc(688111) , etc. The growth of leading white horse is relatively stable, and there have been many adjustments since this year, mainly due to the excessive increase and high valuation in the first half of 19 and 20 years. Since the beginning of this year, the general adjustment of Baima target has been 20% - 30%, and the performance has increased by 20% - 30%. The overall digestion of the valuation has exceeded 40%. The valuation has gradually become reasonable. Considering that the valuation will switch to 23 years after the second half of next year, the attraction of relevant companies will further appear. Therefore, it has a certain configuration value at present, and the configuration value will be higher and higher.
4. Pay attention to the two possible changes in the information creation and industrial software sectors. Once the relevant changes occur, they may drive the reversal of the relevant sectors and even the whole computer sector.
5. Other targets: Iflytek Co.Ltd(002230) , Beijing Supermap Software Co.Ltd(300036) , Beijing E-Hualu Information Technology Co.Ltd(300212) , Xiamen Meiya Pico Information Co.Ltd(300188) , Arcsoft Corporation Limited(688088) , Shenzhen Jieshun Science And Technology Industry Co.Ltd(002609) , etc.
Core recommendations: Longshine Technology Group Co.Ltd(300682) , Thunder Software Technology Co.Ltd(300496) , Quectel Wireless Solutions Co.Ltd(603236) , Hundsun Technologies Inc(600570) , Yonyou Network Technology Co.Ltd(600588) , Kingdee International, Glodon Company Limited(002410) , Sangfor Technologies Inc(300454) , Beijing Kingsoft Office Software Inc(688111) , 360 Security Technology Inc(601360) , Topsec Technologies Group Inc(002212) , China Reform Health Management And Services Group Co.Ltd(000503) , B-Soft Co.Ltd(300451) , Qi An Xin Technology Group Inc(688561) , Iflytek Co.Ltd(002230) , Beijing Supermap Software Co.Ltd(300036) , etc.
Risk warning: 5g progress is lower than expected; The business process of industrial Internet and Internet of vehicles is less than expected; Macroeconomic downturn, investment less than expected; The policy effect is less than expected.
