Industry perspective
Lithium: the strongest metal, with a sustained high boom in the next two years. According to the prediction of Guojin new energy group, the output of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in 22 years will be 5 million and the global output of new energy vehicles will be 10 million; The 20-year lithium production cycle has bottomed out, the mine has resumed production for at least 2-3 years, and the new mine has been put into operation for at least 3-5 years. The supply increment is limited in the short term. The 22-year supply increment is 170000 tons and the demand increment is 220000 tons. It is judged that the 22-year average price is more than 200000 / ton. As the most fundamental metal variety, it is more difficult to invest in 22 years. The sector has entered the performance cashing period, and it is recommended to select high-quality targets. The lithium salt production capacity and resources represented by Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) have been fully distributed, with high resource matching and growth targets.
Nickel: the pattern changes under dual supply and demand, and the integration realizes the logic of cost reduction. It is estimated that the overall global nickel supply will be surplus in 21-25 years. In the short term, nickel for stainless steel is still the mainstream, nickel for new energy vehicle batteries has entered a rapid growth stage, superimposed with the structural shortage of nickel sulfate supply, and the nickel price is expected to rebound. In the medium and long term, the differentiation of nickel sulfate supply sources for batteries will become a key factor in the subsequent nickel price trend. After the Qingshan pyrotechnics project was put into operation, the process chain between stainless steel and battery was opened, and the ferronickel production capacity was effectively released. In the follow-up, we will mainly track the cost differences between various technical routes and optimize the subject matter of integrated layout.
Rare earth: the reconstruction of supply-demand relationship is expected to go out of an independent trend. It is estimated that the global supply shortage of praseodymium and neodymium oxide will be 2000 tons, 9000 tons and 17000 tons respectively in 21-23 years. The rapid development of global new energy vehicles, wind power and other fields has driven the increase of demand for Nd-Fe-B permanent magnet. China’s supply is controlled by indicators. The construction cycle of overseas new projects is long, and it is difficult to increase in the short term of 2-3 years. A round of value revaluation was completed in 21 years, and the market recognition was gradually improved. However, this round of rare earth is still driven by the logic of energy metals, and its trend rhythm is basically consistent with that of lithium plate. The supply of rare earths is more rigid. In the follow-up, we need to wait to break away from the trend of lithium plate, and its own logic will bring excess returns.
New materials: superalloy & Powder Metallurgy & soft magnetic. 1) At present, the annual demand for superalloys is about 30000 tons. In the future, with the expansion of downstream application fields and import substitution, the annual demand will gradually increase, and the annual compound growth rate is expected to be 6% – 7%. Watch the faucet Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) . 2) China’s space for powder metallurgy high-speed steel is at least 15000-20000 tons, and China’s output is only about 300 tons. The industry space is large, so it is optimistic about China’s only Tiangong international. 3) The soft magnetic new energy field provides the largest demand increment and the potential target is Sinomag Technology Co.Ltd(300835) .
Aluminum: supply elasticity decreases and tight balance continues. It is estimated that there will be a shortage of 230000 tons / 110000 tons / 10000 tons of electrolytic aluminum in China in 21-23 years, and the supply and demand will maintain a tight balance. Electrolytic aluminum is relatively sensitive to cost, so the scale and the whole industrial chain help to reduce the overall cost, except that the power cost should be considered. The cost of thermal power aluminum is greatly affected by coal price, and hydropower aluminum benefits more and has a stronger cost advantage under the background of “carbon neutralization”. At the same time, aluminum processing benefited from the increased growth rate of downstream new energy demand, and paid attention to the opportunity to improve the valuation of aluminum processing stocks.
Copper: both supply and demand are booming, and the prosperity is rising in the medium term. The copper price fluctuates at a high level in the short term and moves upward in the medium and long term. Traditional demand is steadily improving, and the demand for infrastructure and household appliances is expected to pick up. Photovoltaic, wind power and new energy vehicles drive the demand for copper, and the new demand is expected to reach 2.55 million tons in 21-23 years. The new capacity on the supply side is vigorous. It is estimated that the new capacity of major copper mines in the world will be about 685000 tons in 22 years and about 990000 tons in 23 years.
Iron and steel: supply and demand are under pressure, and the profit and price are slightly lower year-on-year. It is expected that supply and demand will both decline in 22 years, with demand decreasing by 1.7% and supply decreasing by 2.1%. Infrastructure demand is expected to pick up and real estate demand remains depressed. The output reduction continues under the dual control of energy consumption. It is expected that the crude steel output in 22 years is expected to continue to decline by 20 million tons year-on-year. Iron ore showed a trend of rising and falling in 21 years. It is expected that supply will exceed demand in 22 years, and the annual average price will drop to $110, continuing to contribute cost dividends. Grasp the opportunity brought by the disturbance of steel supply; At the same time, we should pay attention to the opportunities of subdivided faucets, including Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) of stainless steel integration and Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) of special steel faucets.
Risk statement
Downstream demand is lower than expected; The cost of upstream raw materials continues to increase; Macroeconomic growth slowed significantly.
