Industrial metals: tensions in Russia and Ukraine overseas continued to push up energy prices, inflation expectations rose, concerns about overseas supply intensified, non-ferrous metals generally rose, and aluminum and nickel led the rise due to high unit energy consumption and low inventory. On March 5, the fifth session of the 13th National People’s Congress in 2022 was held. The government work report released three groups of data in 2022, which released strong signals of steady growth: GDP growth rate of 5.5%, budget deficit rate of 2.8% and special debt line of 3.65 trillion. Steady growth policy or promote industrial metal demand. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) , Yunnan Tin Co.Ltd(000960) , etc.
Copper: inflation expectations have increased, and the high volatility of copper prices has continued
Shanghai copper closed at 72890 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 3.11%. On the macro level, under the geopolitical disturbance, energy prices rose sharply. The main contract of Brent crude oil futures was $120 / barrel, with an increase of more than 10% during the week, raising market inflation expectations. Powell’s speech was neutral and inclined to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to support copper prices. On the supply and demand side of the industry, according to SMM, Russia’s refined copper output accounts for 4% of the world, while the price difference between inside and outside the week widened. On Friday, the spot import loss exceeded 3000 yuan / ton, resulting in no interest in imports, no significant improvement in terminal consumption, and the situation of strong external and weak internal copper prices may remain high and volatile.
Aluminum: the profit of electrolytic aluminum is expanded, and attention is paid to the inflection point of China’s de warehousing
Shanghai aluminum closed at 23570 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 4.71%. Superimposed on the decline of alumina price, the profit of electrolytic aluminum (purchased domestic alumina and online power) rose to 4116 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 17%. Under the current macro geopolitical crisis, the expectation of resumption of overseas electrolytic aluminum production failed, and energy prices further supported overseas aluminum prices. The import window of electrolytic aluminum continues to close, and China’s electrolytic aluminum gap depends on China’s resumption of production. On the consumer side, according to SMM, the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises continues to rise, the export profit of processed materials continues to expand, and the export profit per ton of sector, strip and profile exceeds US $1000 / ton. In terms of inventory, according to SMM, China’s social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 21000 tons to 1.12 million tons weekly, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.8%; China’s social inventory of aluminum bars fell by 19000 tons to 240000 tons weekly, and the inventory was the same as that of the same period last year. With the large-scale increase of power grid investment and the stable growth of automobile consumption, the downstream consumption is expected to accelerate the recovery, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots may enter the destocking cycle in mid March.
Tin: supply and demand resonance, tin price shock finishing
Shanghai tin closed at 342330 yuan / ton, a weekly increase of 1.92%. The short-term supply side pays attention to the inflow due to the opening of the import window in the early stage, but in the medium term, the production of Chinese smelters is still restricted by the tight supply of minerals caused by the repeated epidemic in Myanmar. The demand side recovered slowly, and the high level squeezed the downstream profits, resulting in the downstream purchase intention is not radical. With the support of stable growth expectation in the medium and long term, the prospect of photovoltaic installation is optimistic and is expected to support the demand for tin. In terms of inventory, the total inventory of LME and SHFE this week was 5238t tons, with a slight increase of 47 tons on a weekly basis.
Zinc: the expectation of overseas resumption of production failed, the zinc price rose, and the downstream remained on the sidelines
Shanghai zinc closed at 25870 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 4.67%. The Fed’s neutral statement made the market focus on geopolitical conflicts. Geopolitical conflicts continued, European natural gas prices rose again, pushing up the cost of overseas zinc production, and the expectation of overseas resumption of production failed. According to SMM, Shanghai zinc made up for the rise this week, but downstream consumption generally refused to adopt, and the spot discount underwater transaction is still light. According to SMM, as of Friday, the total inventory of zinc ingots in SMM seven places was 284200 tons, an increase of 700 tons compared with Monday and 7800 tons compared with last Friday. Focus on the impact of infrastructure demand on zinc consumption under the steady growth policy.
Energy metals: according to Byd Company Limited(002594) Co., Ltd., the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles from January to February was 181451, with a year-on-year increase of 494.28%. The sales volume was excellent despite the pressure of the supply chain. At the same time, during the two sessions, many representatives offered suggestions on the development of new energy vehicle industry and supported the stable and sustainable growth of terminal demand. It is suggested to be followed by the following: followingthe following of the following: followingthe following of the following: followingthe following of the \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\, Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) , China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) , etc.
Lithium: high nickel demand boosted, lithium hydroxide added
Lithium prices rose steadily this week. Battery grade lithium carbonate was 495000 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 6.7%, and battery grade lithium hydroxide was 453500 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 9.1%. On the supply side, the lithium hydroxide manufacturer has not completely completed the maintenance, and the supply is still at a low level. On the demand side, due to the rapid increase of lithium price, the high nickel order moved forward to a certain extent, and the purchase demand of high nickel manufacturers for lithium hydroxide increased. In the medium term, the supply of mineral resources is relatively rigid, the downstream demand of new energy may continue to increase, and the price of lithium still has the power of action.
Cobalt: the price of raw materials is at a high level, supporting the upward trend of cobalt salt
This week, the price of electrolytic cobalt in China was 553500 yuan / ton, a weekly increase of 0.2%, and cobalt sulfate was 118500 yuan / ton, a weekly increase of 1.9%. At present, the inventory of electrolytic cobalt products and raw materials in China is low, the demand for overseas electric cobalt alloy rebounds, driving the price, the instability of shipping schedule, and the declaration of dangerous chemicals increases the transportation cost of raw materials, supporting the high price of cobalt intermediates. The demand of downstream digital terminal and power terminal increased steadily, increased procurement, and the price of cobalt salt increased steadily.
Nickel: the geopolitical crisis deepened, and the nickel price hit another ten-year high
Shanghai nickel closed at 187190 yuan / ton, a weekly increase of 7.3%. Nickel prices hit another 10-year high this week. Affected by the deepening geopolitical crisis, foreign countries have concerns about the supply of pure nickel. At the same time, China’s disk has weakened due to concerns that Russian nickel will be sanctioned and flow into China, and the internal and external price difference has widened again. According to SMM, the current spot supply of pure nickel and ferronickel is tight. In terms of nickel ore, it is difficult to increase the supply of nickel ore in the Philippines before the rainy season. On the demand side, the inventory of some ferronickel plants is low. In terms of nickel sulfate, the US dollar pricing system of raw materials has expanded the range of import losses, and the cost has increased significantly. Due to the poor economy of nickel bean autolysis, some small factories have said to suspend the purchase of nickel beans, and the market crystal purchase demand has increased. It is expected that the cost will continue to rise, pushing up the market price.
Precious metals: geo crisis led inflation expectations deepened and gold prices rose significantly
COMEX gold closed at $1974.9 an ounce this week, up 4.62% from last week. COMEX silver futures closed at $25.885 an ounce, up 7.87% from last week. Powell once again confirmed that the Fed is expected to start a series of interest rate hikes this month to curb the worst inflation in decades, and said it is appropriate to continue raising interest rates this year. Initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States fell by 18000 last week to 215000, the lowest level since the beginning of this year. As of the week of February 19, 1.476 million people continued to apply for unemployment benefits, which was basically the same as the previous value. The weekly Russia Ukraine talks did not achieve phased results. The sanctions against Russia exceeded the general expectations of the market. The situation continued to ferment, which made the risk aversion reach the extreme for a time. The risk aversion of the market rekindled and the economic data with good overall performance of the United States during the period supported the price of precious metals.
Rare earth: the supply and demand side is tight, and the price of rare earth remains stable as a whole
This week, the supply of raw ore and waste materials in the upstream was still tight. In the first quarter, the replenishment of magnetic material enterprises was basically completed, and the procurement demand in the downstream decreased. There is a game between upstream and downstream, the mainstream price of rare earth is stable as a whole, and the market is in a strong wait-and-see mood. According to SMM, the mainstream transaction price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide Market is weak and stable. This week, the mainstream transaction price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide market fluctuates slightly at the price level of 1.09-1.11 million yuan / ton. According to Baichuan information, neodymium iron boron enterprises have stable production, with most long-term cooperative orders, and the demand is still there. After a period of downstream consumption, it is expected that there will still be replenishment demand. In addition, the demand for downstream magnetic materials increased steadily, which supported the price of rare earth. It is suggested to pay attention to: China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) , Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) etc.
Risk tips:
Metal prices fluctuated sharply, the demand for new energy fell sharply, and the macroeconomic performance was lower than expected
