Summary of this issue:
Crude oil: prices fluctuated and rose. U.S. crude oil demand increased and inventories decreased. At the same time, the Federal Reserve gave an optimistic economic outlook. Russia Ukraine relations tended to be tense, which was good for oil prices. However, the market was worried about the spread of Omicron variants. New prevention and control requirements limited economic recovery and fuel demand. International oil prices rose first and then fell. At present, the weekly average price of Brent crude oil is 73.83 (- 0.35) USD / barrel, and the weekly average price of WTI crude oil is 70.94 (- 0.30) USD / barrel.
PX: the market is mixed. On the supply side, there was no significant change in the overall supply of PX market during the week. On the demand side, PTA plants were mostly restarted during the week, and the demand for raw materials increased to a certain extent. Two sets of 6 million T / a PTA plants in Northeast China were warmed up and restarted, the load of a 3.3 million T / a PTA plant in East China was gradually increased to high level, a 2.5 million T / a PTA plant in Fujian was warmed up and restarted on December 9, and a 1.1 million T / a PTA plant in South China was overhauled on December 18, and it is planned to restart at the end of the month. The current market has also strengthened to a certain extent, and the bottom support of PX market is strong. At present, the weekly average price of pxcfr China’s main port is 825.66 (- 11.45) USD / ton, the price difference between PX and crude oil is 289.50 (- 6.07) USD / ton, the weekly average price difference between PX and naphtha is 109.46 (+ 18.66) USD / ton, and the operating rate is 70.68% (-0.51pct).
PTA: the overall market rose slightly. On the supply side, the overall supply of PTA market increased significantly with the recovery of production reduction units in the early stage. During the week, many units warmed up and restarted or increased the load. Only one 1.1 million T / a PTA unit in South China entered maintenance, and the overall start-up of the market increased. On the demand side, the downstream demand has always been weak, the overall start-up of the polyester side has been reduced, and the PTA market has gradually changed from supply and demand to small accumulation. At present, the average weekly spot price of PTA is 4624.29 (- 17.14) yuan / ton, the industry average net profit per ton is 33.28 (- 4.98) yuan / ton, the operating rate is 68.60% (+ 4.50pct), and the social circulation inventory of PTA is 20560 (+ 51000) tons.
MEG: the market price shows a downward trend. The price of crude oil fluctuated and rose, the international price of naphtha fell, the power coal market remained weak and stable, and the support of raw material end was limited. At the supply side, the import volume is small, and the East China port begins to enter the accumulation stage. China restarted the stable operation of the unit last week, and two more units resumed production this week, with an increase in output compared with last week. On the demand side, the load of the downstream polyester industry is maintained, but the inventory pressure of the polyester factory is large, the terminal industry does not improve, and the demand side continues to be weak. At present, the weekly average price of MEG spot is 4797.86 (- 143.57) yuan / ton, the inventory in East China tank farm is 683600 (+ 60000) tons, and the operating rate is 63.60% (+ 2.50pct).
Polyester filament: market shock downward. During the week, the price of filament enterprises was reduced by 200-600 yuan / ton for promotion, the focus of market transactions decreased significantly, downstream users bought on bargain hunting, the market trading atmosphere increased, and local production and marketing volume increased. However, the cash flow of some specifications of polyester filament is in a state of loss, the filament market preference is cancelled the next day, the enterprise quotation is increased, and the focus of low-end negotiation is shifted upward. At present, the weekly average price of polyester filament is poy7112 14 (+ 38.57) yuan / ton, fdy7350.00 (+ 7.14) yuan / ton and dty8592.86 (+ 14.29) yuan / ton. The industry average profit per ton is POY + 234.95 (+ 67.78) yuan / ton, FDY + 127.33 (+ 46.92) yuan / ton and DTY + 354.89 (+ 51.67) yuan / ton respectively. The inventory days of polyester filament enterprises are poy19.00 (- 2.50) days, fdy21.00 (- 2.00) days and dty25.50 (- 1.00) days respectively, with an operating rate of 80.40% （+0.80pct）。
Weaving: the market fluctuated in a narrow range. Recently, there has been a high incidence of epidemic in Zhejiang, the fatigue of terminal demand has not changed, yarn enterprises continue the cost logic, and the quotation has stabilized after falling. At present, the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 54.45% (- 1.75pct), and the grey fabric inventory is 33.50 (+ 1.00) days.
Polyester staple fiber: the market fell first and then rose. On the supply side, there was no short fiber enterprise device maintenance or restart this week, and the short fiber output in the week was higher than that in the previous week. On the demand side, the shipment of polyester staple fiber this week is general. Downstream pure polyester yarn enterprises started normally, and the new orders were in place in general. The trend of raw material end was mainly narrow and volatile, and yarn enterprises purchased more to maintain rigid demand. At present, the weekly average price of polyester staple fiber is 6905.71 (- 12.86) yuan / ton, the industry average profit per ton is 263.87 (+ 33.65) yuan / ton, the inventory days of polyester staple fiber enterprises are -1.90 (- 0.80) days, and the operating rate is 79.50% (+ 1.70pct).
Polyester bottle chip: spot supply is tight. On the supply side, there is no device change, the spot circulation in the bottle chip market is still tight, the supply of polyester bottle chip manufacturers is still tight, and their own raw material inventory is only about 1-2 days. On the demand side, some terminal beverage manufacturers mostly have sufficient goods, most of the domestic market just need replenishment, and there are few large orders. However, foreign trade orders in mainstream factories are generally connected to the first and second quarters of next year. Near the end of the year, large beverage factories begin to purchase next year’s supply. At present, the average spot price of PET bottles and chips is 7635.71 (+ 71.43) yuan / ton, the industry average net profit per ton is + 881.12 (+ 89.59) yuan / ton, and the operating rate is 80.00% (- 0.70pct).
Xinda refining and chemical index: from September 4, 2017 to December 24, 2021, Xinda refining and chemical index increased by 154.62%, the oil processing industry index decreased by – 10.51%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 27.97%.
Relevant listed companies: Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) (601233. SH), Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) (600346. SH), Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) (000703. SZ), Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) (002493. SZ), Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) (603225. SH) and Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) (000301. SZ), etc.
Risk factors: (1) the large refining and chemical plant was put into operation, and the production schedule was lower than expected. (2) the macroeconomic growth rate fell seriously, resulting in a serious depression at the polyester demand side. (3) geopolitics and El Ni ñ o phenomenon had a significant interference with oil prices. (4) unexpected major changes in the production capacity of px-pta-pet industrial chain.
