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Zhou viewpoint: continue to be optimistic about independent rise + electric intelligence + motorcycle
Great changes have taken place in automotive intelligent and electric vehicles, reshaping the industrial order and looking forward to the golden decade of the automotive industry. The 2022 government work report proposes to continue to support the consumption of new energy vehicles, policy + supply two wheel drive, and the penetration of new energy vehicles is expected to accelerate. In January, the performance of passenger car insurance was relatively bright, and the prosperity of terminal demand was high. Core portfolio of this month [ Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) , Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co.Ltd(603129) ]].
Passenger cars: the Automobile Association of China estimates that the automobile sales volume will reach 1.666 million in February 2022, with a month on month ratio of – 34.2%; The cumulative sales volume from January to February is expected to be 4.196 million, a year-on-year increase of + 5.7%. According to the China Automobile Association, in January 2022, the wholesale of narrow passenger cars was 2.156 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 6.3% and a month on month increase of – 9.4%; In January, 2.174 million narrow passenger cars were insured, with a year-on-year increase of – 4.1% and a month on month increase of – 0.6%. At present, the margin of raw materials has increased, which has disturbed the profit margin of the downstream and midstream of vehicles in the short term. However, driven by new energy + export, the terminal demand is still strongly supported. Some auto enterprises have also gradually started price adjustment and discount tightening, and the cost increase is appropriately transmitted to the terminal. We are firmly optimistic about the independent rise and realize the improvement of brand and market share through reform. We recommend [Geely Automobile h, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) ] and the beneficiary [Xiaopeng automobile h, ideal automobile H]. We are firmly optimistic about the independent rise and realize the improvement of brand and market share through reform. We recommend [Geely Automobile h, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) ] and the beneficiary [Xiaopeng automobile h, ideal automobile H].
Parts: Electric Intelligence reshapes the industrial order, rapid performance growth + new fixed-point catalysis, and firmly look at many parts. Intellectualization will be the core theme of this year. Intelligent driving and intelligent cockpit will accelerate together, and we are optimistic about the accelerated penetration of acoustics + chassis by wire + domain controller; Electrification accelerates the development of lightweight, Tesla leads the integrated die casting, and improves the industry concentration while increasing the industry expansion. It is recommended to select the target from the customer dimension (new forces and other industrial chains) + product dimension (incremental parts), and the two-dimensional resonance is the best.
1. Customer dimension:
Compared with the traditional fuel vehicle, the iteration speed of the new force model is faster, the verification cycle of the supply chain is shortened, and the supply chain tends to be flattened. The accelerated growth of sales volume drives the performance growth curve of the industrial chain company to become steeper. It is recommended that [ Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) ] with greater flexibility and [ Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Shinry Technologies Co.Ltd(300745) ].
2. Product dimension:
The transformation of intelligent electric will reshape the brand power and product power. All vehicle enterprises are increasing intelligent electric configuration and expect to achieve brand improvement: preferred acoustics – [ Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) ], chassis by wire – [ Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ], domain controller – [ Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) ], ceiling glass – [ Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) ], integrated die casting – [ Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) ] Smart seat – [ Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) , Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) ], interior – [ Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) ], platform – [ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) ].
1) electrification increment: three power [ Byd Company Limited(002594) , Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) ], the beneficiary object [ Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (covered by the new power group), Shinry Technologies Co.Ltd(300745) ]; New energy heat management [ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) ], beneficiary [ Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) ]; Lightweight [ Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ], benefiting from [ Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co.Ltd(002824) ].
2) intelligent increment: automatic driving [ Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) ], the beneficiary [Nextel]; Intelligent cockpit [ Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) , Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) , Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) ] ( Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Fuyao are jointly covered with computer group and building materials group respectively). Motorcycles: according to the data of China Automobile Association, in January, China sold 25500 medium and large displacement motorcycles, with a year-on-year increase of + 32.3% and a month on month increase of – 24.2%. Medium and large displacement motorcycles represent the direction of consumption upgrading, with huge market potential. The share will be concentrated in independent and joint venture brands with outstanding brand strength, leading powertrain technology and perfect channel layout. Recommend [ Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co.Ltd(603129) , Zhejiang Qianjiang Motorcycle Co.Ltd(000913) ].
This week’s market: poor overall performance, led by parts
This week, the A-share auto sector fell 4.44% (weighted average of current market value, the same below), ranking 28th in shenwanzi industry, weaker than Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (down 0.99%). Among the segments, auto services, trucks, buses, other transportation equipment, auto services, passenger cars and parts decreased by 0.43%, 0.98%, 3.17%, 3.78%, 4.68% and 4.77% respectively.
Data this week: Wholesale and retail sales increased year-on-year, and raw materials increased slightly
Wholesale and retail sales increased year-on-year and gradually recovered after the festival. In the fourth week of February, the average daily wholesale volume was 88000, up + 37% year on year and – 28% month on month; In the fourth week of February, the average daily retail sales volume was 80000, with a year-on-year increase of + 31% and a month on month decrease of – 22%. Raw materials rose slightly this week. The average prices of cold-rolled sheet, aluminum, natural rubber and copper this week were + 0%, + 2.7%, – 2.4% and + 2.5% respectively.
Risk tips
Chip supply shortage; Fluctuations in raw material costs; Sales recovery was less than expected.
