The slight correction of sales volume in February did not change the high growth trend of the whole year, and was optimistic about the marginal improvement of the growth environment in the future
According to the data of several Chinese auto companies that have announced their sales volume at present, the slight correction of sales volume in February is mainly affected by two factors: (1) in the off-season of the Spring Festival, cars are not sold for a week (the sales volume of oil vehicles is corrected simultaneously); (2) Most electric vehicle manufacturers raised prices around February, leading to some purchases in advance. We believe that short-term fluctuations will not change the high growth trend of the whole year, and the recent continuous rise in oil prices will further promote consumers to choose new energy vehicles. After March, the upstream is loose, and the sales volume is expected to be repaired. It is estimated that the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) passenger cars will be more than 5.5 million in 2022, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger cars is expected to reach more than 25%. On the whole, Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) cars are expected to exceed 6 million. The industry is increasingly driven by high-quality products, and the relevant supply chains will fully benefit. We believe that the upward cycle investment of electric vehicles has entered the third stage, and we attach importance to investment opportunities in three directions: (a) core growth: the leader with high barriers and links, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , and other front-line leaders benefit; (b) Post cycle: energy storage, hydrogen energy, charging and changing electricity, etc. Gcl Energy Technology Co.Ltd(002015) and other companies benefit; (c) New technologies: flat wire, 4680 battery, etc. Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) and other companies benefit.
Byd Company Limited(002594) and ideal car sales are not weak in the off-season
in Byd Company Limited(002594) february, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 87473 (year-on-year + 764.10%, month on month - 5.87%), including 44300 DMI (month on month - 4.81%) and 43173 pure electric vehicles (month on month - 6.93%) Byd Company Limited(002594) February is mainly the order volume before delivery. Based on the company's price adjustment from February 1, the recent backlog of orders is in January. At present, the company has abundant orders on hand. It is expected that the company will continue to maintain full sales and full production in March and April (the monthly output is about 100000 vehicles). After May, the company's factories in Zhengzhou and Hefei will successively contribute new production capacity, and the sales volume is expected to break through again.
The delivery volume of ideal cars in February was 8414 (year-on-year + 265.83, month on month - 31.42%), which was the best among the new forces of car making. It is mainly based on the price rise of pure electric vehicles, which leads to the advance of order volume / sales volume. Therefore, the data of Xiaopeng, Zero run and Hezhong in January are bright, but the sales volume is affected after the price rise in February. The ideal vehicle price is stable, and it is expected to deliver 3 Shenzhen Sed Industry Co.Ltd(000032) 000 vehicles in the first quarter of 2022. Ideal car will officially release ideal L9 at Beijing auto show in 2022. The estimated price is 4 Shenzhen Fountain Corporation(000005) 00000 yuan. The core selling points are: (1) atmospheric size (wheelbase 3100mm, car length 5200mm); (2) Increase the program, the total mileage exceeds 800km, and the mileage is worry free; (3) Excellent hardware, second-generation intelligent cockpit, five screen linkage, etc. L9 is expected to become the next popular luxury model.
The sales volume / delivery volume of other key auto enterprises in February: 6225 Xiaopeng cars (YoY + 180.03%, Mom - 51.83%), 6131 Weilai cars (YoY + 9.91%, Mom - 36.48%), 3435 zero running cars (YoY + 774.05%, Mom - 57.51%), 7117 Hezhong cars (yoy + 255.49%, Mom - 35.35%), and 8526 SAIC new energy (YoY 25.85%, Mom - 40.85%).
Under the background of the Russian Ukrainian war, the global oil price soared, and the operating cost advantage of new energy vehicles became prominent
With the escalation of the situation in Ukraine, the international oil price soared. On March 3, the price of Brent crude oil exceeded US $119 / barrel (the highest level in seven years). China also continued to raise the oil price. The price of No. 92 gasoline exceeded 8 yuan / L, up 14.51% from 7.03 yuan / L (the price on December 18, 2021). Taking the same class B vehicle as an example, the 100 kilometer driving cost of an oil vehicle is 64 yuan (8 liters / 100km), and the 100 kilometer driving cost of an electric vehicle is 7-15 yuan (15kwh / 100km), that is, the driving cost of an electric vehicle at the same distance is less than 1 / 4 of that of an oil vehicle. The rise in oil prices will affect consumers' demand for new cars to a certain extent, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to continue to increase rapidly.
Risk warning: the development of new technologies exceeds expectations, the demand is lower than expectations, and the competition in the new energy market is intensified
