Core view
Operation analysis of transportation industry: the epidemic disturbance superimposed on the off-season of passenger transport. In November, the CTSI index was – 10.5% year-on-year, and the high boom logic continued in the peak season of freight logistics. November 2021: CTSI index – 10.5% year-on-year. Railway: the railway passenger flow in November was – 33.05% year-on-year. Highway: the passenger flow of Commercial Highway in November was – 43% year-on-year. Waterway: bulk freight prices continue to callback, and centralized freight rates rise further. Aviation: in November, China’s epidemic further restrained the passenger flow of civil aviation, and the high prosperity logic of the air cargo market remained unchanged. Logistics: in November, the express business volume increased by 16.5% year-on-year. New business format: in November, the online car Hailing order volume was 623 million. Under the tightening of epidemic prevention and control, the user order volume fell month on month.
As the global epidemic continues, the high prosperity expectation of cross-border logistics remains unchanged. In the long run, the cross-border e-commerce industry has broad incremental space, and the logistics demand of cross-border e-commerce has high growth. At the same time, due to the recent emergence of covid-19 mutant strain Omicron and the Civil Aviation Administration’s call to stop “changing passengers to goods”, the passenger cabin is not allowed to load non epidemic prevention goods. It is expected that the tight supply of air cargo capacity will continue in the future, and the air cargo price may maintain a high range. In this context, cross-border freight entities may continue to receive dividends. Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) (603128. SH), Eastern Air Logistics Co.Ltd(601156) (601156. SH) are recommended.
Under the new competition pattern, continue to grasp the performance repair inflection point of the first-line express. Considering that Jitu has completed the acquisition of Baishi, the competition of front-line head companies will be further cleared, and under the catalysis of the peak season effect of freight logistics in the second half of the year, the share price of short-term front-line express companies may have further upward potential. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) (002120. SZ), Zhongtong Express (2057. HK) and Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) (600233. SH).
Continue to pay attention to the medium and long-term configuration value of comprehensive logistics leaders. S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) with the promotion of the “four networks financing” strategy, it is possible to speed up and reduce the cost of time express and express products. At present, the merger of Kerry Logistics has been completed. After the end of 2021, Ezhou airport will be put into operation. At the same time, after the three-dimensional layout of logistics segments, the development effect of digital supply chain is expected to be gradually reflected, and the performance explosion is expected. Continue to recommend the medium and long-term configuration value of S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) (002352. SZ).
Continue to pay attention to the high growth logic of road freight digitization. China’s road freight market has trillions of space, but the quality and efficiency have not been fully exploited, and continue to show the attributes of low concentration and low homogeneity. In this context, the network freight track has been given the potential of rapid growth and has room for significant improvement. Continue to recommend Transfar Zhilian Co.Ltd(002010) (002010. SZ).
Risk tips: the price of air and sea transportation has fallen sharply, the cross-border logistics demand is less than expected, the risks caused by changes in the international trade situation, express price war, repeated covid-19 epidemic, the risk of decline in transportation demand, and the risk of transportation policies and regulations.
