One week view: focus on industries and targets with undervalued value and expected performance improvement
Under the disturbance of factors such as the expansion of centralized mining, the impact of the epidemic and emergencies brought about by changes in international relations, the pharmaceutical sector has adjusted significantly since the beginning of the year. In the near future, with the expected stability, as well as the policy direction of the state encouraging innovation, improving the concentration of industrial chain and social medical management, the current valuation of the whole pharmaceutical sector is less than 30 times, which is significantly lower than the average level of 38 times since 2011. Therefore, we continue to suggest that we pay attention to the reasonable valuation and the rapid growth of performance in 2022q1 Industries and targets with inflection points or stable fundamentals in 2022.
One week’s point of view: the policy supports the social running of hospitals, and the tone remains unchanged. High quality private hospitals still have broad development prospects
The tone of China’s policy to support social medical services has never changed. The national positioning of social medical services has always been a supplement to public hospitals, and the medical services provided by them correspond to multi-level, differentiated and characteristic medical services. With the sinking of the public medical system and the gradual popularization of high-quality medical resources in the grass-roots level, the living space of small and medium-sized private hospitals is easy to be squeezed without the support of characteristic medical services and strong doctor resources. This squeeze is not due to the small market, but because the medical service ability can not keep up with the development requirements and can not form an effective supplement to public hospitals; However, high-quality private hospitals can keep up with the pace of high-quality development of public hospitals and form synergy with public hospitals by virtue of their core competitiveness such as brand strength, doctor team, fine management ability and differential service projects, so that they can stand on the occasion of reform and change, go hand in hand with public hospitals and meet the needs of multi-level medical services. Based on the obvious correction of the current valuation of the medical service sector, the average valuation of the sector corresponds to 42.4 times in 2022, and the corresponding peg is less than 1. At present, it remains actively recommended.
One week’s view: Pfizer covid-19 small molecule drug MPP authorization list is expected to accelerate the implementation, and is firmly optimistic about covid-19 drug industry chain
In January, MSD authorized 27 enterprises to produce covid-19 oral drug molnupiravir through MPP (Geneva pharmaceutical patent pool organization). The authorized enterprises can sell molnupiravir’s generic drugs in 105 low-income countries (excluding China). Pfizer has authorized 95 countries to produce paxlovid generic drugs through MPP organization. Considering that the population of 95 MPP member countries has exceeded half of the total global population and the market demand is large, its final authorization list is expected to accelerate the implementation. Considering the good treatment effect of paxlovid, it is expected that after the paxlovid authorization list is implemented, the Relevant generic pharmaceutical enterprises and upstream industrial chain are expected to meet great demand. China has a mature basic chemical system and the layout of the whole pharmaceutical manufacturing industry chain, with lower upstream raw material costs and more stable and sustainable supply capacity. We are firmly optimistic about the investment opportunities and long-term development of covid-19 pharmaceutical industry chain.
Recommended and beneficial objects
Recommended targets: Jinxin reproduction, Henan Lingrui Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600285) , Tasly Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600535) , Pharmablock Sciences (Nanjing) Inc(300725) , Shanghai Haoyuan Chemexpress Co.Ltd(688131) , Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) , Sino Biological Inc(301047) (the above ranking is not in order).
Beneficiary targets: health care, Chinese herbal medicine, 3 Fiyta Precision Technology Co.Ltd(000026) \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\ Yixintang Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002727) , Dashenlin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(603233) , Yunnan Jianzhijia Health-Chain Co.Ltd(605266) , Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , Xiansheng pharmaceutical, Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) , Brightgene Bio-Medical Technology Co.Ltd(688166) , Shandong Jincheng Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(300233) , Nanjing Hicin Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300584) .
Risk tip: the black swan incident and the deterioration of the epidemic situation in the industry affect production and operation.
