Our investment strategy for the household appliance industry in 2022 is: clear the clouds and see the end of the day. Sometimes, the willow is dark and the flowers are bright and the spring is coming. Firmly optimistic about raw materials and real estate, the subdivision leader accelerated the breakthrough under the background of marginal easing.
Short term disturbance: mainly real estate, the price rise of raw materials and export concerns are gradually digested. (1) Real estate: the high growth rate of real estate sales in 2021 has significantly suppressed the valuation of household appliances, especially kitchen electricity. We expect that the delivery area of commercial housing in China is expected to maintain a rapid growth in 2022, driving the improvement of kitchen electricity demand. At the same time, the margin of China's real estate policy has eased recently. It is expected that the improvement of real estate sales next year will drive the valuation of the plate. (2) Raw materials: in 2021, the cost of raw materials will be high. In the face of the impact of raw material price rise, household appliance enterprises will improve the average price of products by optimizing product portfolio and adjusting marketing strategy. The inflection point of raw material price growth in the near future is downward, and they are optimistic about the "scissors gap" of subsequent profits. (3) Export: since 2021, the shipping capacity has been tight, and the shipping cost has been rising. Combined with the slight fluctuation of RMB exchange rate in the first half of the year, it has put some pressure on household appliance enterprises with a large proportion of export business. China's export container freight rate composite index has dropped since late October, but due to the overseas epidemic, it is difficult to alleviate the shipping pressure. Looking forward to next year, shipping and exchange rate will continue After the improvement of phased negative factors, home appliance enterprises, especially high-end leaders, are expected to usher in a profit recovery.
Long term thinking: product driven to the era of channel king. (1) Space: China's home appliance market has gradually entered a mature period, in which the overall growth of large household appliances has slowed down, but emerging small household appliances still maintain a good development trend, superimposed with the continuous improvement of rural household electricity ownership and the release of renewal demand. At the same time, considering the rise of average product price caused by the upgrading of product structure, China's home appliance market is expected to rise in both volume and price in the future, and the market space is still large. (2) Pattern: the market pattern of China's traditional household appliances such as air ice washing and range hood is stable; while the capacity expansion of emerging kitchen power industries such as dishwashers and integrated stoves is accelerated, it is expected to reshape the pattern; the medium and long-term demand in the field of small household appliances is sufficient, among which, single products such as floor sweepers, integrated sweepers and trailers and intelligent projectors still have large growth space under low penetration and continuous new product iteration Driven by innovation, small household appliance enterprises that occupy the minds of consumers are expected to break through; In the field of lighting, companies with strong channel coverage are expected to achieve rapid development and further increase the market share. (3) Channel: we believe that the competition in the home appliance industry will be driven by products and move towards the era of channel being king. China's unique e-commerce development environment and the rise of consumers in Z era provide an important basis for consumption upgrading. How to make products "faster, more accurate and better" Reaching consumers will become the core key to open the gap between enterprises. We are firmly optimistic about taking the lead in the layout of the omni-channel marketing system, actively breaking the original growth boundary and exploring the growth prospects of home appliance enterprises with front traffic entrance.
Investment strategy: clear the clouds and see the sun, and select the leader. We believe that the pressure of raw material price rise and the expected pressure of real estate sales faced by the household appliance industry show a marginal easing trend, and the sector is expected to usher in a double rise in profit and valuation. Combined with the current valuation, we first promote the kitchen electricity sector, followed by the white electricity sector and small household appliances sector. The leaders of the subdivided track are expected to accelerate the breakthrough, among which Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) , Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) , Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co.Ltd(300911) are recommended for the kitchen and electricity sector; Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) , Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) are recommended for white power sector; Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) , Joyoung Co.Ltd(002242) , Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co.Ltd(002705) , Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) , Kingclean Electric Co.Ltd(603355) , Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) are recommended for small household appliances; In addition, actively pay attention to Gongniu Group Co.Ltd(603195) and Opple Lighting Co.Ltd(603515) of lighting electrical standards with deep channel cultivation barriers.
Risk warning: the price of raw materials fluctuates greatly; Risk of terminal demand slump; Exchange rate fluctuation risk.
