Industrial metals: Russia Ukraine conflict intensifies the disturbance to the supply of industrial products
Aluminum: overseas supply disturbance continues, and China’s accumulation rate slows down
Overseas, with the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the energy crisis continued to ferment, and aluminum prices continued to rise. In China, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum this week was 1.12 million tons, an increase of 21000 tons on a weekly basis, and the accumulation rate slowed down. Although electrolytic aluminum production enterprises are actively resuming production, the supply increment is still small, while the operating rate of downstream enterprises continues to rise slightly, providing strong support for demand. The main beneficiaries include Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.Ltd(002532) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) , Sunstone Development Co.Ltd(603612) , etc.
Copper: continue to trade inflation expectations, but China’s demand recovery is slow. In the short term, it may maintain the external strength and internal weakness. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continued to ferment this week. The European energy shock combined with the sharp rise of crude oil strengthened inflation expectations and pushed up copper prices, which rose sharply during the week. However, China’s demand has not improved significantly, the internal and external disk is seriously upside down, there is a significant loss in imports, and the short-term copper price may maintain the pattern of strong external and weak internal. If the margin of China’s terminal demand picks up, Shanghai copper may deposit a large amount to make up for the rise. The main beneficiaries include Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.Ltd(000630) , etc.
Energy metals: the prosperity of the industry continues to rise, and the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent
Lithium: the supply shortage is difficult to alleviate, and the price of lithium reaches a new high
Lithium salt production enterprises continued to resume production this week, but due to the shortage of raw materials of upstream lithium resources, the supply increment is still insufficient. At the same time, the seasonal production reduction at the salt lake end has not ended, and the supply of lithium salt products is in short supply. It is expected that the lithium price will be strong in the future, mainly benefiting Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , etc.
Cobalt: the tight supply and demand situation has not been alleviated, and the price may still be strong and high
In terms of cobalt, the epidemic in South Africa still affects logistics and shipping, the tight supply continues, the gap of cobalt raw materials is still large, the operating rate of electric cobalt plant is low due to the impact of raw material cost, the reluctance of manufacturers to sell is obvious, and the inventory continues to decline. However, the improvement of market demand still needs to be confirmed, and the short-term electric cobalt price may fluctuate strongly. In terms of cobalt salt, as the downstream of cobalt salt begins to improve, the overseas market performs strongly, the supply remains tight, and the cobalt salt market is expected to be strong under the condition of low inventory. The main beneficiaries include Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) , etc.
Rare earth: supply tension intensifies, and prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall
In the long run, China’s first batch of indicators for 2022 have been issued, the overall increment is limited, and the supply of Nd-Fe-B waste has also declined due to insufficient supply, cost inversion and other problems. Overseas, due to the Myanmar epidemic, the shortage of imported ore supply is also increasing, and the price of rare earth will still be strongly supported in the future. The main beneficiaries include China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) , China Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Ltd(000831) , etc.
Precious metals: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate, providing strong support for the price of precious metals
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continued to escalate this week, the two rounds of negotiations between the two sides did not make substantive progress, and the global risk aversion continued to heat up, driving the price of precious metals to rise further. On the other hand, as the impact of the Fed’s interest rate hike on gold tends to weaken, inflation trading has become the mainstream of the market and constitutes medium-term support for gold prices. The main beneficiaries include Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) , Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , etc.
Risk tips: the macro economy is less than expected, the monetary policy shrinks more than expected, the global epidemic is repeated, etc.
