Event overview:
The geopolitical uncertainty caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led European countries to adjust their defense policies and increase defense investment. After World War II, Germany has always adhered to a more conservative defense line, but recently announced that it would increase its defense expenditure / GDP to more than 2% required by NATO and allocate 100 billion euros of special funds at one time. French President macron also promised to increase defense spending. Sweden, Finland, Switzerland, Austria and other countries that have remained neutral for a long time have also significantly changed their defense positions. At present, European countries have strengthened their military dependence on the United States, and Germany has invested more military spending to compete with Russia. Europe may face a new round of arms race. At the same time, some US allies are also strengthening their military expansion preparations. For example, Japan and Australia have also significantly increased defense spending in recent years. Australia even plans to increase military spending by 40% within a decade.
Analysis and judgment:
The ratio of military expenditure to GDP tends to increase
During the cold war, the ratio of military expenditure / GDP of the former Soviet Union once reached more than 15%, and the ratio of military expenditure / GDP of the United States also remained between 5-10%. According to SIPRI statistics, the global defense expenditure in 2020 was about US $1.98 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, accounting for 2.4% of the global GDP.
In 2022, China's defense budget was 145045 billion yuan, an increase of 7.1% over last year, an increase of 0.3 percentage points over last year. China's current military expenditure / GDP ratio is about 1.3%, lower than the world average. In terms of total expenditure, as the world's second-largest economy, China's defense expenditure is less than one-third of that of the United States. There is still a big gap between China's national defense expenditure and the guarantee demand for safeguarding national sovereignty, security and development interests, the guarantee demand for fulfilling the international responsibilities and obligations of major countries, and the guarantee demand for its own construction and development. The situation of preparing for a strong military is urgent. In response to the changes in the geopolitical environment, there is an urgent need for high-tech weapons and equipment.
The world may usher in a climax of military science and technology research and development
1. Missiles: in this Russian Ukrainian conflict, "stinger", "javelin" and Iskander missiles showed great power. Precision guided weapons have become the main means of attack and defense in modern war. According to statistics, in the past local wars, the duration of the war was inversely proportional to the investment of precision guided weapons.
In terms of cruise missiles, the United States and Russia continue to promote the upgrading of active sea-based and air-based cruise missiles, including "Tomahawk" and "caliber"; France has realized the service of naval cruise missiles and jointly promoted the conceptual design of future cruise / anti-ship weapons with Britain; India has completed all flight tests of fearless cruise missiles; Japan began to develop cruise missiles similar to the Tomahawk missile of the United States. In addition, many military powers began to actively develop hypersonic weapons. The "dagger", "pioneer" and "zircon" hypersonic missiles developed by Russia in recent years have attracted much attention.
In the future highly information-based battlefield, precision strike will become the key way to win. Countries are bound to increase spending on missiles and ammunition, further increase missile range, continuously improve navigation, guidance and damage performance, and hypersonic missile models will continue to enter service.
2. Military aircraft: in modern war, air control has become the key factor to determine the outcome of the war. Combat aircraft can not only directly bomb targets, but also provide cover and support for ground forces and logistics lines. Without generation difference, the number of aviation equipment is one of the advantages of war. According to the statistics of world air force 2022, the total number of various military aircraft in the United States in 2021 was 13246, 4173 in Russia and 3285 in China; India, South Korea and Japan ranked fourth to sixth respectively.
In recent years, the capacity system of China's aviation industry has been continuously improved, realizing the leap from three generations to four generations, from mechanization to informatization, from land-based to sea-based, from small and medium-sized to large-scale, and from tracking development to independent innovation. It should be noted that the overall technology of U.S. fighters is leading. Among them, the number of the most advanced fifth generation aircraft F22 and F35 accounts for about 17%. There is still a big gap in China.
3. UAV: unmanned combat is the inevitable trend of future war. UAV has the characteristics of no casualties, strong concealment, convenient use, low cost and flexible performance. It can carry out battlefield reconnaissance, electronic jamming, military attack, communication relay, logistics support and other functions.
China's military UAV research started early and has a high technical level. It has formed a relatively perfect combat system and a relatively mature product series. According to the prospective industry research institute, China is the second largest exporter of UAVs after the United States, and "pterosaur", "Xianglong" and "Rainbow" have been affirmed by many countries. It can be predicted that UAVs will play a greater role in the battlefield in the future, and the development of unmanned technology and unmanned combat concept will also become a part of the arms race.
US military stocks "slow bull" market benefits from the arms race
In the 20 years since "9 / 11", the main military stocks in the United States have stepped out of the rising "slow bull" market. There are two main reasons behind it: 1) the huge market driven by China's arms demand and overseas military trade. With the advancement of the US military expansion strategy, the instability of the international geopolitical pattern has increased. On the one hand, US military expenditure continued to grow; On the other hand, the demand for US military equipment in the international market is rising. According to SIPRI statistics, since 2000, US military equipment exports have shown a steady growth trend, accounting for 37% of the world in 20162020 (15% higher than that in 20112015), accounting for an absolute dominant position. In 2020, the total amount of US arms sales to foreign countries will reach 175 billion US dollars. 2) The integration of American military industry into the field of civil industry has increased more consumption attributes. The United States actively encourages private enterprises to participate in military projects, promotes the two-way transfer of military and civilian technologies and resources, and promotes the benign interaction between national defense construction and economic development.
In recent years, China's military enterprises have greatly improved in technology and have entered the world's advanced ranks. According to a survey conducted by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, China's foreign arms sales reached US $66.8 billion in 2020, accounting for 13% of the global market share. It is no longer dominated by light weapons and cheap products, and the proportion of high-tech weapons and equipment has increased. At the same time, China is accelerating the in-depth development of military civilian integration and building an integrated national strategic system and capacity.
Risk tips
Uncertainty of the international situation; The progress of equipment development and batch production was less than expected.
