Annual long-term cooperative pricing Landing & domestic and foreign spot prices rose sharply, and the two sessions grew steadily, catalyzing the market
This week, the price of thermal coal in China and abroad continued to strengthen: the spot price in QinGang, China increased sharply, and the quotation of individual ports exceeded 1300 yuan; International energy prices rose sharply. Affected by the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the prices of coal, oil and gas all hit a new high in recent years this week. This week, China’s supply and demand fundamentals are mainly tight. Although the weather is warmer and the demand for civil power is weaker, the demand for industrial power and non electric coal continues to release, the efforts to replenish storage in the downstream are not reduced, and the high overseas coal prices also catalyze the shift of import demand to domestic trade. Basically, the coal price is strongly supported. In the later stage, the weather is gradually warming, and the civil power has entered the traditional off-season. However, considering the current overall rise in international energy prices and the steady growth policy driving the demand for infrastructure construction, we believe that the coal price may still operate stably at a high level in the off-season. In addition, we also need to pay attention to the dynamic regulation of supply side policies in the later stage. This week, the national development and Reform Commission made it clear that the annual benchmark price of the long-term association in 2022 was 675 yuan / ton, slightly higher than the previously inferred 670 yuan. At the same time, the executive price of the long-term association was officially released in March, which was 720 yuan, only 5 yuan lower than that in February, with little marginal impact on the market. The further improvement of the interval mechanism also provides a policy basis for the stability of the high coal price, and the predictability of the performance of gaochangxie coal enterprises is further improved. For the spot coal price, the price ceiling is expected to weaken, and the coal price is upward or still flexible. In the case of non extreme rise, the upper limit of 900 yuan port coal price may be broken, and the elasticity of spot coal price is expected to be revised. The short-term investment logic of the coal sector mainly focuses on the main line of “stable growth”: the government work report of the two sessions mentioned that infrastructure investment should be carried out in advance to benefit the coal coke steel industry chain, and the price of coking coal is not directly controlled by policies, which is still obviously flexible; The long-term investment logic has three main lines: high long-term cooperation and high dividend (stable performance and reduced capital expenditure, supporting high dividend yield), asset injection (new mineral resources are increasingly scarce, and asset injection will become the main way of capacity growth), energy transformation (using the high cash flow of the main industry to layout the transformation of new energy and new materials in the context of double carbon, so as to open up the future growth space). Near the performance release, the high performance of coal enterprises will be realized in succession. We believe that the current coal sector has high allocation value and are optimistic about the market of the sector. Objects benefiting from steady performance and high dividend: Yankuang energy, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) ; Objects expected to benefit from growth: Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) transformation target beneficiaries: Power Investment energy, Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) , Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , China Xuyang group (H shares); Object of benefit from debt restructuring: Wintime Energy Co.Ltd(600157) .
Coal power industry chain: this week, the price of power coal is running strongly, and the rise of international coal price catalyzes the demand for domestic trade coal
This week (from February 28 to March 4, 2022), the price of thermal coal operated strongly. The fundamentals of supply and demand this week are mainly tight: in terms of demand, with the rise of temperature this week, the civil power load has declined, but the industrial power still remains resilient, and the demand for replenishment of power plants has not decreased. At the same time, the increase in the operating rate of enterprises such as cement and chemical industry has driven the release of the demand for non electric coal. As the market supply and transportation capacity are dominated by the baochangxie, the non electric coal market is relatively tight. The sharp rise in international coal prices has prompted the import demand to shift to domestic trade coal, further stimulating the demand of the Chinese market. The inventory of QinGang port is still running at a low level, forming a strong support for the coal price, and there are still quotations of more than 1000 yuan in the port market; According to the news of the national production Reform Commission, the daily supply has rebounded to a peak of more than 12 million tons in the last quarter, and the daily supply has been stable. The overall supply and demand of fundamentals are strong, the supply is slightly tight, and the coal price support is strong.
Coal coke steel industry chain: Double coke rose this week, and coking coal reappeared the tight supply pattern
Coke: the coke price was raised by 200 yuan again this week. In terms of demand, with the rapid resumption of production of downstream steel enterprises, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills has increased significantly, and the efforts to replenish storage have increased; On the supply side, driven by demand and stimulated by the relaxation of production restrictions, the operating rate of coke enterprises maintained growth this week. The increase in demand and the increase in the cost of raw coal support the upward trend of coke price. Coking coal: coking coal prices continued to rise sharply this week, mainly driven by the accelerated recovery of downstream demand. The operating rates of coke steel enterprises are significantly higher, and the demand for replenishment continues to strengthen. Overall, the supply of coking coal has been tightened again. Considering that the resumption of coke steel production will still accelerate after the end of the heating season in March, and the regulation of stable macroeconomic growth is expected to drive the infrastructure and maintain the stability of real estate, the demand of coal, coke and steel industry chain in the later stage continues to release, which is relatively optimistic, and the price of coking coal may be higher.
Risk tip: downside risk of economic growth, mismatch risk of supply and demand, accelerated substitution risk of renewable energy
