Zhou's view: the expected low point, pay attention to the changes in the growth environment
(1) new energy vehicles: from the perspective of terminal sales, short-term price increases and data off-season may lead to expected lows; From the sales volume announced in February, Chinese models have been adjusted month on month, among which Byd Company Limited(002594) performs better; However, since the price of Byd Company Limited(002594) was raised on February 1, the subsequent sales volume needs to be observed. From the perspective of upstream price, the price of lithium carbonate continues to break through upward, and its negative feedback impact has penetrated from low-end demand to medium and high-end demand; With the marginal increase of the supply side in March and April, the tension is expected to be alleviated. At present, it will be the stage with the largest contradiction between supply and demand. We believe that the growth environment of the industry will improve marginally in the next one or two months, and we should pay attention to investment opportunities in three directions: (a) core growth: invest according to the level of barriers (battery, lithium resources, diaphragm, negative electrode, etc.), Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) and other companies will benefit; (b) Post cycle: companies such as Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) and others benefit from flexible investment according to the growth rate, such as energy storage, power exchange and other sectors; (c) New technology: invest according to the rate of penetration improvement, such as 4680, Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) and other companies benefit.
(2) photovoltaic: the government work report puts forward that we should adhere to the principle of building first and then breaking down, and make an overall plan to promote the low-carbon transformation of energy; Promote the planning and construction of large-scale wind and solar power bases and their supporting regulatory power sources, and improve the consumption capacity of the power grid for renewable energy power generation. The policy has laid the foundation for the long-term and vigorous development of photovoltaic, but the power grid, supporting power supply and basic energy guarantee still need to be accelerated. In the short term, the upstream supply side will be gradually released, and the growth environment will be straightened out; The breakthrough of new technology is accelerated, and n-type battery and granular silicon are the core; In the inverter industry, the localization and speed-up of core parts is an important focus. We are mainly optimistic about three directions: (a) terminal links such as global leading components with good competition pattern, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) and other benefits; (b) Innovation at the industrial end (n-type battery, granular silicon, localization of parts, etc.) benefits Jingke energy, poly GCL energy, Shenzhen Hopewind Electric Co.Ltd(603063) etc. (c) Power station and other post cycle links, Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) , Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , etc.
(3) wind power: the wind and scenery base project continues to be implemented, and the long-term growth expectation is improved; The price reduction of industrial chain products has formed a good positive demand feedback, and the bidding price has reached the relative bottom range; The real parity upward cycle will be started in 2022, and the industry valuation system is expected to be reshaped. Companies like Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) , Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) and others will benefit from long-term bullish on offshore wind power + large-scale + core parts.
Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) : the product / customer structure is optimized, and the volume and profit are expected to rise continuously
Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) released the annual report for 2021. In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 283 million, with a year-on-year increase of 133.49%, of which the net profit deducted was RMB 296 million, with a year-on-year increase of 235.00%. The gross profit margin of the company was 37.80%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.16pct, mainly benefiting from the large demand for power batteries and the orderly release of investment and construction capacity.
Sector and company tracking
New energy vehicle industry: after the beginning of the year, the price of lithium manganate continued to rise, and continued to break through historical highs
New energy vehicle company: Byd Company Limited(002594) company released the production and sales express in February 2022
Photovoltaic industry level: Shandong Province issued the typical design scheme of low voltage distributed photovoltaic metering and acquisition
Photovoltaic company level: Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) company publicly issues convertible corporate bonds
At the level of wind energy industry: Huaneng opened 20 wind power projects, 3111.5mw, and 13 complete machine manufacturers competed
At the level of wind energy companies: Shanghai Taisheng Wind Power Equipment Co.Ltd(300129) passed a number of proposals
Risk warning: the development of new technologies exceeds expectations, the demand is lower than expectations, and the competition in the new energy market is intensified
