Summary of this issue:
Zhou’s view: the main line of steady growth continues to recommend the home sector. On the basis of continuing the positioning of “housing without speculation”, the 2022 government work report supports the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, stabilize land prices, house prices and expectations, and promote the virtuous cycle and healthy development of the real estate industry due to urban policies. On March 4, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and the central bank issued the notice on strengthening financial services for new citizens, which pointed out that they should support the healthy development of the housing rental market and meet the housing needs of new citizens. With the promotion of the steady growth policy, it is suggested to pay attention to the valuation repair of the household sector in the post real estate cycle, and to Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) , Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) , Minhua holdings. 2) The demand for papermaking improved & the cost promoted the smooth implementation of the price increase. With the recent slight improvement of China’s demand and the increase of overseas export orders, and the continuous high cost of wood pulp and energy prices, the price of culture and double offset paper began to rise recently. It is suggested to pay attention to Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) . 3) It is suggested to pay attention to Shenzhen Yuto Packaging Technology Co.Ltd(002831) , Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) . 4) It is suggested that families should pay attention to Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) , Jialian technology.
The light industry manufacturing sector outperformed the market this week (2022.2.28-3.4). This week, the light industry manufacturing industry index rose 0.1%, and the CSI 300 index fell 1.7%. The overall performance outperformed the market. In the light industry manufacturing segment, the paper industry index is + 3.9%, the household goods industry index is – 0.5%, the entertainment goods industry index is – 1.2%, and the packaging and printing industry index is – 1.8%.
Home furnishing: the Spring Festival affected the fluctuation of home furnishing online sales in February, and the cost remained high this week. From the performance of Amoy platform, the growth rate of Amoy platform fluctuated in the main household sub industries affected by the Spring Festival in February. The sales of Amoy platform in sofa industry maintained a high growth in February, with a year-on-year increase of + 90.3% in February 2022. The sales of Amoy platform in mattress industry continued to decline in February, with a year-on-year decrease of – 36.5% in February 2022. The price of raw materials and sea freight continued to be high. In February, CCFI: the sea freight of the US west route was + 92.5% year-on-year and + 1.5% month on month. In February, the TDI price was + 29% year on year and + 8.9% month on month, and the MDI price was – 4.0% year on year and + 6.8% month on month.
Papermaking: white cardboard rose this week, and the prices of double offset paper, coated paper and box board corrugated paper were stable. The past week as of March 5, 2022: the price of double adhesive tape, Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited(000488) 6800 yuan / ton (unchanged), Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) 6700 yuan / ton (unchanged); Price of white cardboard, Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited(000488) 6410 yuan / ton (up 200 yuan / ton), Shandong Bohui Paper Industry Co.Ltd(600966) 6520 yuan / ton (up 200 yuan / ton); Coated paper price, Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited(000488) 6600 yuan / ton (unchanged), Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) 6500 yuan / ton (unchanged). The price of box board corrugated paper is 4490 yuan / ton for Dongguan Jiulong Dilong corrugated paper (unchanged), and 4830 yuan / ton for kraft board paper (unchanged).
Packaging and printing: tinsector and aluminum prices rose slightly this week. As of March 5, 2022, this week’s tinsector Tianjin Furen spcc0 The price of 18 900 tinsector coil was 8150 yuan / ton (up 200 yuan / ton), the price of domestic A0 aluminum ingot was 23340 yuan / ton (up 630 yuan / ton), and the price of metal packaging raw materials increased slightly.
Household personal consumption: the growth rate of online sales of stationery and personal care picked up month on month in February. From the performance of Amoy platform, among the main sub industries of personal care, the sales of household paper industry in February 2022 was + 33.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 48.9pct higher than that in January. The sales volume of scouring platform in sanitary napkin industry and trousers industry improved month on month in February, with a year-on-year growth rate of + 36.6% and + 35.1% respectively, and a month on month growth rate of + 52.0pct and + 46.5pct respectively; In the diaper industry, the sales volume of Amoy platform in February was – 7.4% year-on-year, with a month on month growth rate of + 27.4pct; The online sales of stationery industry in February were + 2.8% year-on-year.
Risk factors: the risk of decline in real estate sales and the risk of sharp rise in raw material costs.
