Core view: in the government work report, the GDP target for 2022 is set at about 5.5%, reaching the upper limit of social expectations. The expression of fiscal expenditure, investment and consumption strengthens the expectation of stable market growth, and gives guidance to the uncertainty of the current market on economic growth. Although it takes “hard work to achieve”, the result is likely to be better. Good for market preference and non bank sector. When the market of securities companies is expected to be loose, it often leads to a debate on whether the market of securities companies should continue to be loose or not, but even before January. We have repeatedly mentioned in previous weekly reports that the current economic environment is still in the stage of transmission from wide currency to wide credit. The “money shortage” was corrected by the “superposition of three phases” at the end of 2008 and the second half of 2014, the interest rate and reserve requirement were comprehensively reduced, the financing difficulties and credit expansion of small and medium-sized enterprises at the end of 2018, and the “rumors of mixed banking and securities industry” driven the fermentation of the market after social finance exceeded expectations in April 2020, They are all the products of economic stimulus. Combined with the current national demand for steady growth, we firmly recommend the layout of the brokerage sector on the left. The main line follows the two in-depth industry reports we released before, one is wealth management and the other is “shadow shares” of public funds; At the same time, although it is difficult for life insurance premiums to perform under the condition of high base last year and no obvious improvement in agent quality improvement, the expectation of economic stabilization and upward interest rate in the future will form support for valuation. At the same time, the premium of P & C insurance appeared an upward inflection point one and a half years after the reform of vehicle insurance premium, and the head company is expected to usher in performance improvement by controlling the comprehensive cost rate.
Suggestions: Dongcai, Guangfa, great wall, Zheshang, China property insurance, CPIC, etc.
Market review: the main index fell this week, and the Shanghai composite index reported 344765 points, 0.11%; Shenzhen stock index reported 1302046 points, -2.93%; The CSI 300 index reported 449643, -1.68%; Gem 274864, – 3.75%; The China Securities composite bond (net price) index was at 99.75, – 18bp. The average daily turnover of A-Shares in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 966531 billion yuan, a month on month ratio of – 8.84%, and the average daily turnover rate was 1.32%, a month on month ratio of – 11.44bp; The balance of the two financial institutions was 173265 billion yuan, down – 3.65% from last week. As of March 4, 2022, the scale of equity + hybrid funds was 8.67 trillion yuan, a month on month increase of + 0.23%. This week, the scale of newly issued equity funds was 2.962 billion yuan, a month on month increase of + 47.58%. In terms of individual stocks, securities companies: Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) + 2.61%, Chinalin Securities Co.Ltd(002945) + 2.08%, Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) + 1.41%; Insurance: New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) + 2.61%, China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) -0.86%, China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) -1.05%; Diversified Finance: Luxin Venture Capital Group Co.Ltd(600783) + 8.82%, Kunwu Jiuding Investment Holdings Co.Ltd(600053) + 7.47%, Cnpc Capital Company Limited(000617) + 7.23%.
View of the securities industry: the issuance of new funds will not change the sustainable development trend of wealth management. Under the comprehensive registration system, grasp the main investment opportunities of investment banks. Since the beginning of 2022, the growth expectation of wealth management business has decreased due to the cold of new funds. In fact, although the scale of new funds has declined year-on-year, the total scale of public funds has increased by 3.74% compared with the end of 2022 and 16.32% compared with the same period last year. The management fee income based on AUM has maintained a continuous growth trend. After a significant adjustment of wealth management characteristic securities companies, Cost performance is gradually emerging. In terms of investment main line of investment banking business, head securities companies have advantages in talent reserve, research ability, asset pricing ability and sales ability, and the market share of registration system is concentrated to the head. The comprehensive registration system is coming, which will bring performance increment to the head securities companies with stronger comprehensive strength. It is suggested to pay attention to: Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) , China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) , Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) , Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) , etc. In the context of the great development of wealth management, the wealth management line suggests paying attention to the core targets benefiting from the expansion of the wealth management market: 1 China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) , which has obvious advantages in products and investment advisers and promotes the large-scale development of high-end wealth management; 2. Benefiting from the wealth of residents entering the market through institutions, excellent products and investment advisory services + high proportion of asset management income + Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) , etc. with high contribution of participating / holding public funds; 3. The company attaches great importance to its strategy and has obvious characteristics of private placement and consignment sales, which is expected to achieve Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) .
Under the steady growth target, loose liquidity is worth looking forward to, and together with the steady growth of bond business performance and the improvement of asset quality, it forms the driving force of sector rise. From the performance of listed securities companies that have disclosed the performance express, the growth rate of net profit attributable to parent companies of more than 70% of securities companies is more than 20%, and half of them is more than 30%. Among them, China stock market news is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the mother of a net profit of 4.8225 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year growth of 66.90 percent expected in 2021, among which China stock market news is expected to achieve a net profit of 4.8225 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 66.90% year-on-year growth of 66.90 percent year-on-year growth of 66.90%, among which China stock market news is expected to top among the top among the top among the top among the top among China’stock market market news, among which the growth of China stock market ”s stock market news news, among the top among the top among the country’s stock market news news, among which the growth in the growth of China’s stock market market”s top among the top among the top among the top among the top among the top growth in terms in terms in terms in terms of the growth in terms of the growth in terms of the net profit growth of China ” ”net profits from the year to return to return to 7% year-on-year growth Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) net profit increased by more than 50%. In addition, Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) , Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) and other four securities companies had net profit of more than 30%. In 2021, the performance of securities business grew steadily under the high base of 2020. It is expected that the net profit growth of most listed securities companies will exceed 30%, laying a solid foundation for the rise of the sector. The two sessions set the tone for steady growth, with gpd5 The growth target of about 5% is higher than the general expectation, the reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates is worth looking forward to, and loose liquidity will become the catalyst for the rise of the sector. The current valuation of securities companies is PB1 55 times, the valuation still does not match the performance and asset quality, which is 2.5 times away from PB2 61x valuation center still has a large space, so it is recommended to actively layout.
View of the insurance industry: Recently, the proposals of the two sessions have repeatedly mentioned the construction of the third pillar pension system. The main proposals involved are to cancel the restriction of 6% extension of individual tax on pension insurance, appropriately increase the amount of tax extension, simplify the process of making individual insurance commercial pension insurance expenditure the most special deduction items, and encourage banks and insurance institutions to develop pension savings deposits, pension financial management Pension insurance and other pension financial products. At the same time, it is also reported that the relevant rules of the personal pension system are expected to be released, including the establishment of personal pension accounts with tax incentives and personal pension bank accounts. At present, the industry has prepared the corresponding system and completed several rounds of tests. We believe that the key to the development of super long-term pension insurance is to convert the savings of 100 trillion yuan into long-term pension insurance. At present, the construction of the pension system is progressing steadily and is in the construction stage of the account system in the first stage (20212024). 2025 will usher in a period of tax preferential development. Assuming that 10% of savings deposits are converted to the third pillar pension products, and the proportion of pension insurance in the third pillar is 10%, it is expected to bring an increase of 1 trillion premium.
The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission released the premium data for January. Based on the influence of the base, the original premium income of life insurance in January was under pressure. The original premium income of life insurance in a single month was 838.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 4.9%, of which the premium income of life insurance business was 704.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 5.8% (previous value + 3.6%), and the original premium scale of health insurance was 121.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 0.5% (previous value + 3.8%). In terms of property insurance, the growth rate of auto insurance continued to pick up in January, driving the growth rate of property insurance to pick up. In January, the original premium scale of property insurance was 140.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10% (the former value was – 2.2%), of which the growth rate of automobile insurance premium was + 11.74%, the growth rate picked up month by month, and the growth rate of non automobile insurance was + 12.89% (the former value was + 10.56%) year-on-year. Subject to the impact that the life insurance reform is still in a painful period, the increase of team capacity is less than the decline of manpower, and the continuous mismatch between supply and demand, the inflection point at the liability end is still difficult to appear in the short term. At present, the repair of insurance valuation still depends on the performance of the asset side. Formulation of government work report 2022 GDP 5 The target of 5% still maintains a high growth in the high base, indicating that steady growth is still a hard requirement, and various policies are expected to continue to increase. With the gradual implementation of broad credit, the long-term interest rate is expected to rise, driving the valuation repair of insurance stocks. With the growth rate of social finance reaching a new high in January and the steady growth driving the economy to continue to improve, the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds has rebounded slightly to 2.8% (as of March 4), which may continue to rise in the future. In addition, the adverse impact of real estate investment on insurance companies has been fully reflected, the resolution of real estate chain risk has been gradually promoted, and real estate financing has been continuously relaxed, and the real estate risk is controllable. In terms of equity, insurance stocks tend to underestimate the value of individual stocks with high dividends, which is in line with the style of this year’s equity market and is expected to achieve better investment returns. At present, the positions and valuations of insurance stock institutions are at historical lows. The current share prices of Guoshou, Ping An, Taibao and Xinhua 2022epev are 0.60x, 0.56x, 0.46x and 0.41x respectively. It is suggested to pay attention to AIA led by high-quality agents, as well as Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) and China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) , which are more thoroughly reformed in life insurance.
Liquidity view: in terms of volume, the central bank’s net withdrawal from the open market this week was 430 billion yuan, of which 380 billion yuan was invested in reverse repurchase and 810 billion yuan was withdrawn. 380 billion yuan of reverse repo will expire next week. In terms of price, the short-term capital interest rate fell this week. The weighted average inter-bank offered rate decreased by 30bp to 1.98%, and the inter-bank pledged repo rate decreased by 35bp to 1.96%. Down to r001007%, down to r011007%, down to r012007%. Shibor’s overnight interest rate fell 33bp to 1.90%. Interbank certificates of deposit issue interest rates vary. The yield of one-year treasury bonds rose 4bp to 2.11%, the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds rose 3bp to 2.83%, and the term spread narrowed 1bp to 0.72%. The government work report shows that steady growth will continue to work, the implementation of prudent monetary policy will be strengthened, and the fiscal force will be more active. In the future, the credit easing is expected to gradually take effect, superimposed with the intensification of global inflation caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the long-end interest rate is expected to usher in an upward trend.
Diversified financial perspective: focus on the trust and financial holding sectors that benefit from stimulating economic policies.
Risk factors: the deterioration of covid-19 epidemic, the decline of China’s economy beyond expectations, the decline of long-term interest rate beyond expectations, the success of the start is less than expected, the tightening of financial regulatory policies, the risk of spread loss caused by low interest rate, the pressure of agent shedding, lower than expected insurance sales, the uncertainty of the impact of capital market fluctuations on performance, etc.
