This week’s view:
Planting industry chain: on March 1, 2022, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas issued the implementation opinions of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas on implementing the key work deployment of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council to comprehensively promote rural revitalization in 2022 (hereinafter referred to as the “opinions”), which pointed out that in 2022, Rural Revitalization should focus on “four stabilities and four suggestions”, including stabilizing grain production area and increasing production capacity, Industrial development will stabilize the foundation and improve efficiency, rural construction will stabilize the pace and improve the quality, and the steady momentum of farmers’ income will improve the momentum. We should strengthen the responsibility of grain production, planting and disaster reduction, and vigorously support and effectively restore the area of soybeans in the northeast through the implementation of important policies such as grain prevention and disaster reduction Make every effort to tackle the difficulties in oil production and expand the planting of soybeans and oil; The opinions emphasize the need to improve the level of agricultural facilities and equipment, consolidate the material foundation of agricultural modernization, strictly abide by the red line of 1.8 billion mu of cultivated land and strictly implement the priority of cultivated land utilization, strengthen the construction of high standard farmland by strengthening the transformation of medium and low yield fields, promoting the development and utilization of saline alkali land, and strengthening the protection of black land in the northeast We will strengthen the treatment of degraded and polluted cultivated land and carry out soil survey, strive to improve the fertility of cultivated land, and deeply implement the revitalization of the seed industry by accelerating the protection of germplasm resources, accelerating breeding innovation, and strengthening the supervision of the seed industry market. Rural Revitalization focuses on grain production and seed industry revitalization, which has improved the prosperity of seed industry, and listed companies related to seed industry have ushered in an important policy window. In terms of target selection, we mainly recommend Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) and Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) with obvious first mover advantage and Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) .
The perennial root of sugarcane is three years in China, but five to seven years in Brazil and Australia. This is the reason why the overall supply of sugar was relatively sufficient in the past and the price of sugar did not rise for many years, but the cycle will only be late and will not be absent. 2022 has been six years away from the high point of the previous cycle. Superimposed on the higher than expected rise of oil prices and the large release of global currencies, as well as the frequent occurrence of global extreme climate caused by sunspot movement in recent years, a new upward cycle of sugar has begun. In terms of target selection, the stable target focuses on recommending Cofco Sugar Holding Co.Ltd(600737) , the leader of China’s sugar industry, and the flexible target Nanning Sugar Industry Co.Ltd(000911) is expected to benefit fully.
In addition, we continue to recommend chemical stocks with a valuation of only 11 times Meihua Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600873) . We expect that the performance elasticity in 2022 will come from the production of new lysine capacity by the end of 2021. In the long run, the monosodium glutamate and amino acid industries are limited by the new capacity under the background of carbon neutralization, and the valuation center is expected to rise.
Pig breeding: according to the data of zhuyitong, the average price of pigs nationwide this week was 12.50 yuan / kg, an increase of 0.53% on a weekly basis. The national development and Reform Commission announced on February 28 that according to monitoring, the national average pig grain price ratio from February 21 to February 25 was 4.98:1, entering the level-1 early warning range of excessive decline determined by the “plan for improving the regulation mechanism of government pork reserves and ensuring supply and price stability in the pork market”. The national development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, will immediately start the collection and storage of the central frozen pork reserve and guide all localities to actively collect and store. According to preliminary statistics, at present, Beijing, Jiangxi, Hubei, Chongqing, Yunnan, Shaanxi, Ningxia and other places have started collection and storage, and other places will also start in the near future. The pork price is expected to rise slightly in the short-term compared with the monthly pork storage season, but it is expected to have a relatively high impact on the pork price in the short-term. In addition, Ukraine is the world’s major exporter of corn and wheat. The Russia Ukraine incident is expected to exacerbate the turmoil in the global grain market, affect China’s corn imports, or exacerbate the tight supply and demand pattern. As a raw material, the rising price of corn will promote the rise of feed price, the cost of pig breeding is still under pressure, and the trend of pig production capacity removal caused by breeding losses remains unchanged. From the current time node, the average market value of some high-quality pig breeding stocks has fallen to a historically low level, and the configuration window has been gradually opened. The choice of specific targets to choose from among among the specific targets is to be recommended in turn for the selection of specific targets, with the following to be recommended in turn: the0 Shenzhen Guohua Network Security Technology Co.Ltd(000004) 8\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\, Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) , etc. are expected to benefit fully.
Risk tips
The recovery process of pig production capacity is less than expected, the product sales is less than expected, and the commercialization process of GM is less than expected.
