Demand gradually recovered, and the two sessions once again emphasized steady growth
Steel prices stabilized and rebounded this week. Rebar rose nearly 150 yuan a week, while other varieties such as hot coil and medium and heavy sector also rose in an all-round way. Recently, the steel price fluctuates greatly. After three months of continuous rise, the futures price is close to the level. With the arrival of the peak season, it is necessary to observe the fulfillment of real demand, and the short-term capital sentiment fluctuates greatly. At present, it is in the early stage of demand recovery. Although the demand performance last week was poor, there was a large amount this week. The apparent consumption of rebar increased by 670000 tons on a weekly basis, corresponding to the national average trading volume of construction steel of 174600 tons, reaching the level of the same period in previous years. At the same time, the recent conflict between Russia and Ukraine has driven the prices of nonferrous metals and energy commodities to rise further. At the time of the gradual release of demand, industrial optimism has driven the black price to rebound sharply. The latest report on the work of the two sessions shows that the annual GDP growth target in 2022 is about 5.5%. Although the deficit ratio has been reduced, the intensity of fiscal expenditure is ensured through cross-year adjustment. “Only the funds transferred from the central government to the general budget reach 1.267 trillion yuan. This amount of funds is equivalent to increasing the deficit ratio by one percentage point”. With the gradual implementation of future policies, The improvement in marginal demand for steel brought about by the rebound in credit is relatively certain. In terms of segments, the focus is on the opportunities of water pipe industry, mainly benefiting from Zhejiang Kingland Pipeline And Technologies Co.Ltd(002443) , Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) and other iron ore benefiting from Hbis Resources Co.Ltd(000923) .
The trend of ore price is strong, and the coke price is expected to be strong
(1) iron ore: the iron ore inventory in port 45 this week was 158545200 tons, down 320500 tons month on month; The global shipment of iron ore was 29.716 million tons, up 3.722 million tons on a weekly basis. Among them, the delivery volume of iron ore in Australia was 15.123 million tons, with a decrease of 605000 tons on a weekly basis; Brazil’s iron ore shipment volume was 5.008 million tons, an increase of 1.253 million tons on a weekly basis. At the same time, the molten iron output of 247 steel mills reached 2.198 million tons this week, with a week-on-week increase of 109000 tons. With the gradual relaxation of production restriction, the output of molten iron has accelerated and rebounded recently, and the capacity utilization rate of steel plant has rebounded to 63.19%. This week, the apparent demand also recovered rapidly, the trading volume of construction steel gradually rebounded, and the ore price rebounded strongly. Although the iron ore is under the key control of the national development and Reform Commission, the probability of continuous recovery of molten iron production in the later stage is high, and the ore price may be strong; (2) Coke: the second round of increase in coke has been implemented, and the profit has been repaired, but the center is still low. With the accelerated recovery of hot metal production and the resumption of steel production, the short-term coke price is expected to be strong.
Plate key data tracking
Demand continued to pick up: this week (2.28-3.4), the average trading volume of construction steel in China was 174600 tons, up 62400 tons on a weekly basis. According to the calculation of Mysteel data, the apparent consumption of deformed steel bars was 2.555 million tons, with a week on month increase of 666000 tons; The apparent consumption of hot rolled coil was 3.29 million tons, with a week on month increase of 111000 tons;
Supply continued to pick up: the national blast furnace operating rate (247) was 74.72%, with a weekly increase of 1.28 PCT; The capacity utilization rate of Tangshan steel plant was 63.19%, and the week on month ratio increased by 9.02pct. The national weekly output of the five varieties totaled 9.56 million tons, up 311000 tons month on month;
Profit performance fell: this week (2.28-3.4), the gross profit per ton of rebar was 271 yuan, down 132 yuan month on month; The gross profit per ton of hot rolled sector was 305 yuan, down 28 yuan month on month; The gross profit per ton of cold rolled sheet was 40 yuan, down 174 yuan month on month; The gross profit per ton of medium and heavy sector was 136 yuan, down 157 yuan month on month.
Risk tip: terminal demand has fallen sharply, and the environmental protection production restriction policy is less than expected.
