Since 2021, the industry index has risen 46.1%, ranking second in the growth list of all 30 industries of CITIC. In 2021q1-3, the whole industry realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 106.05 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 41.7%, ranking 14th among all industries. The industry is changing from “pure policy” drive to “policy + market” dual drive. The proportion of wind power and photovoltaic in total power generation and the proportion of new energy vehicles in total vehicle sales have exceeded 10%. Photovoltaic and lithium batteries have formed a “domestic demand + export” composite market. New growth points such as energy storage, pumped storage and BIPV are emerging. We believe that the fundamentals of the industry continue to be optimized, It will ensure that the industry will continue to maintain a high boom in 2022.
We are optimistic that driven by the double carbon goal, the industry demand has high certainty, and some leading companies in subdivided fields can continuously improve their competitiveness and have higher investment value by virtue of technological progress, product upgrading and large-scale expansion. Investment suggestions and key recommended companies in each sub industry are as follows:
Lithium battery: grasp the profit recovery and boom link. The rise in raw material prices caused by the imbalance between supply and demand in the industrial chain in 2021 has come to an end, and the recovery of profits in the middle reaches of 2022 will be the main trend. It is recommended to focus on the negative leading Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) due to the tight graphitization capacity, the diaphragm leading Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) whose supply tends to be tight due to the supply of diaphragm equipment, and the battery leading Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) whose pattern is good and whose profitability is expected to recover.
Photovoltaic: circuit with the highest layout flexibility. The price game of the industrial chain is coming to an end, and the policy continues to exceed expectations. In 2022, China’s installed capacity will increase by 50% year-on-year +, and centralized will become the main increment. It is recommended to focus on cell faucet Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) , high-efficiency module leader Risen Energy Co.Ltd(300118) , photovoltaic glass faucet Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , photovoltaic silver paste faucet Wuxi Dk Electronic Materials Co.Ltd(300842) .
Wind power: focus on the leader of large-scale trend. The large-scale wind turbine has greatly accelerated the cost reduction of the industry. The onshore wind power has been parity and the offshore wind power has been close to parity. Among all links, the offshore wind power industry chain and parts have the most investment value. It is recommended to focus on offshore fan faucet Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , submarine cable faucet Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , and fan blade faucet Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) .
Energy storage: grasp the link with the highest value. 2021 is the first year of the energy storage policy, opening the development stage of the industry from 1 to ∞, and the implementation of application end projects in 2022 will be the main trend. Lithium battery and PCs account for 60% and 20% of the total cost, with the largest market space. It is recommended to focus on PCs faucets Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) , and household energy storage faucets Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) .
Hydrogen energy: focus on leading enterprises of hydrogen energy. It is a green secondary energy connecting new energy and terminal, which is deeply decarbonized in industry, construction and transportation. It is recommended to focus on the fuel cell leader Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) , the whole industry chain layout Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) , the hydrogen storage bottle leader Zhangjiagang Furui Special Equipment Co.Ltd(300228) , the fuel cell core tester Hefei Kewell Power System Co.Ltd(688551) , and the compressor leader Shanghai Hanbell Precise Machinery Co.Ltd(002158) .
Nuclear power: focus on green power operators and core suppliers. In the 14th Five Year Plan period, it has been re established as the main energy source. 6-8 units will be started every year, the independent fourth generation high temperature gas cooled reactor will be completed, and the independent third generation “Hualong No. 1” batch construction will improve the development space. It is recommended to focus on green power operators China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) , equipment suppliers Anhui Yingliu Electromechanical Co.Ltd(603308) , Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) .
Power grid investment: layout of new power system industrial chain. The new power system has become a rigid demand, and the demand for intelligent integration terminals, flexible transmission, peak shaving and frequency modulation units has been boosted. It is recommended to focus on power grid intelligence leader Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) , power transmission and distribution equipment leader China Xd Electric Co.Ltd(601179) , smart meter and photovoltaic development leader Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) , and cable accessories leader Chang Lan Electric Technology Co.Ltd(002879) .
Risk statement
Lithium battery safety events; Price fluctuation of raw materials; Overseas policy changes affect exports; The policy implementation of energy storage and hydrogen energy industry is less than expected; The progress of electric energy substitution is less than expected; The epidemic situation is repeated.
