Weekly observation: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine intensifies the fluctuation of global food prices, and the planting and breeding targets are recommended
Ukraine and Russia are important suppliers of major Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) supplies in the world, and play a key role in providing Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) supplies to neighboring countries. In terms of wheat, the total wheat production of Russia and Ukraine exceeds 10% of the global total, ranking first and fifth respectively. In terms of corn, the United States is the main producer and exporter of corn in the world, followed by Brazil and Argentina, followed by Ukraine. In terms of barley, Russia and Ukraine are the most important barley producing areas outside the EU. As an important grain importer to China, Ukraine has the highest proportion of corn and barley exported to China.
In the short term, the conflict between the two countries has directly affected the promotion rhythm of spring sowing. In terms of spring sowing time window, wheat rye dormancy in the four planting areas of Ukraine is coming to an end, tillering is imminent, and barley and oats in the southeast and South are in the key sowing period. In the long run, energy price fluctuations will push up the price of agricultural inputs again. Natural gas is an important raw material for the production of nitrogen fertilizer such as ammonia and urea. Russia and Belarus are the main suppliers of energy and chemical fertilizer raw materials, which have been seriously affected by sanctions, which will increase the pressure on farming costs in 2022 and beyond.
Zhou’s view: the reversal of pig cycle is imminent, and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices continue to rise
In 2022, the pig cycle is about to reverse, and the layout of production capacity is in the period of de industrialization. Recommend Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , which has the leading breeding cost; Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , with accelerated recovery of production indicators and reduced costs; Cycle reversal drives Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , with excellent performance flexibility; Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , which has the advantages of breeding cost and capital; Relevant beneficial object Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) . The safety margin of the dynamic insurance sector appears, and the industry space may usher in accelerated capacity expansion. It is recommended that China’s leading enterprise of animal subunit vaccine Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) .
Feed sales will continue to benefit from the high stock of pigs and poultry. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading feed enterprise Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) .
The risk of global food security increased, and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices continued to rise. Affected by the recent conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) supply and trade stability have been negatively affected. It is suggested to focus on the A-share high-quality grain standard Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) . The company’s main business is rice and wheat planting, seed production and sales, rice, grain and oil processing and product sales.
Market performance this week (2.28-3.4): Agriculture outperformed the market by 3.6 percentage points
This week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.11% and the agricultural index rose 3.49%, outperforming the market by 3.6 percentage points. In terms of sub sectors, seeds led the rise, with an increase of 6.07%. In terms of individual stocks, gains were led by Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products Co.Ltd(002840) (+ 16.21%), Hainan Shennong Technology Co.Ltd(300189) (+ 15.19%) and Wanxiang Doneed Co.Ltd(600371) (+ 14.93%).
Price tracking this week (2.28-3.4): the prices of pigs, prawns, corn and sugar rose month on month this week
Pig breeding: according to the monitoring of Boya Hexun, on March 4, 2022, the average price of three yuan pigs abroad was 12.36 yuan / kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan / kg compared with the fifth ring last week; The average price of piglets was 23.96 yuan / kg, up 0.01 yuan / kg compared with the fifth ring last week; The average price of white striped meat was 16.15 yuan / kg, the same as last Friday. The price ratio of pig feed today was 3.36:1, unchanged from last Friday. The average daily profit is – 480.3 yuan / month, based on the data of self breeding head + 1.4 yuan; The average profit of purchased piglets was -153.33 yuan / head, with a month on month ratio of -7.48 yuan / head.
White feather broiler: according to wind data, the average price of chicken seedlings this week was 0.94/feather, with a month on month ratio of – 16.81%; The average price of wool chicken was 7.36 yuan / kg, a month on month increase of – 2.00%; The breeding profit of hairy chicken was -1.44 yuan / feather, compared with -0.53 yuan / feather.
Risk tip: the macro economy is down and the consumption remains depressed; Uncertainty of animal diseases in winter, etc.
