Core recommendation
Key points of basic chemical industry
Core assets ( Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) ); The titanium dioxide ( Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 002is the date of the 3535\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\) etc.
Key points of petrochemical industry
OPEC + joint production reduction forms the bottom support of oil price, but we still need to pay attention to the impact of non OPEC production (Canadian heavy oil, Brazil and Central Asia), global macroeconomic downside risk and further fermentation of trade risk on oil price. ; Pay attention to Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) .
Weekly industry update
This week, the price index of chemical products rose, the oil price of core raw materials rose, LPG gas rose, LNG gas fell, and the coal price was flat; The prices of C4, aromatics, chemical fiber, chemical fertilizer and polyurethane increased. This week, China’s chemical price index CCPI + 3.2%; The price of core raw materials is oil distribution + 20.6%, imported LPG + 7.2%, domestic LNG – 18.8%, and bituminous coal is the same.
On the raw material side, the prices of C4 and aromatics products increased; On the product side, the prices of some chemical fiber, chemical fertilizer and polyurethane products rose, while the prices of some pesticide and rubber products fell.
Oil prices rose sharply this week, the situation in Ukraine was more anxious than expected, and concerns about supply interruption intensified.
This week, the settlement price of oil distribution rose from 97.9 to 118.1 US dollars / barrel (up 20.6%), and the settlement price of American oil rose from 91.6 to 115.7 US dollars / barrel (up 26.3%); The US commercial crude oil inventory was 413 million barrels (Mom – 0.6%), and the number of US crude oil wells was 519 (Mom – 0.6%).
On the supply side, according to Longzhong information, the current market has intensified concerns that the situation in Russia and Ukraine may lead to supply interruption, supporting the sharp rise in oil prices. Before the situation in Ukraine is completely eased, whether the Iranian issue can be implemented in advance is also an important variable. On the demand side, according to Longzhong information, the impact of the epidemic on oil prices can be basically ignored. In the short term, buyers of Russian crude oil may be cautious. Recently, the purchase of new orders of Russian crude oil by Shandong independent refinery has been basically suspended and on the sidelines, but the rigid demand for crude oil in various countries is still stable. In terms of policy, according to Longzhong information, the Fed may raise interest rates in mid and late March, and its impact on the US dollar may be limited in the short term. Geopolitically, according to Longzhong information, the situation in Ukraine is still the focus. In addition, the Iranian issue also deserves attention.
Natural gas price tracking:
Price tracking: European and American natural gas futures generally rose this week, with NBP + 83.33%, TTF + 82.91%, HH + 3.03% and AECO + 0.27%. In terms of spot, North America and Europe were mixed, with HH spot chain ratio of – 2.90%; Canada AECO spot chain – 24.78%, Europe TTF spot chain + 53.25%. In terms of price difference, the average spot arrival price of LNG in Northeast Asia was 10456 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 28.17%, the average sales price of terminal was 8695 yuan / ton, and the price difference was + 172 yuan / ton (+ 2.02%). Inventory tracking: according to EIA data, as of February 25, the US natural gas inventory was 1643 billion cubic feet, with a month on month ratio of – 139 billion cubic feet (month on month ratio of – 7.80%, year-on-year ratio of – 11.60%), lower than the five-year average. According to the data of the European Natural Gas Infrastructure Association, as of February 25, the European natural gas inventory was 1119.9 billion cubic feet, a month on month increase of – 67.6 billion cubic feet (a month on month increase of – 5.69%, a year-on-year increase of – 20.85%). China’s price: this week, China’s LNG fell due to demand side constraints. As of March 3, the average price of LNG in main producing areas was 7698 yuan / ton, down from – 4.61% last week; The prices of consumer places went down simultaneously. As of March 3, the average price of major LNG consumer places was about 8560 yuan / ton, down – 3.67% from last week. The quotation of LNG terminal is 8818 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 0.28%.
View update of key chemicals:
Price rise and fall of chemicals:
The important products with the highest price increase this week are photovoltaic grade trichlorosilane + 35%, ammonium chloride + 19%, ammonium sulfate + 18%, toluene + 11%, polyether (soft foam polyether + 10%, case polyether (220 / 210) + 10%, high resilience polyether (330n) + 9%), phthalic anhydride + 10%, methanol + 10%, tetrachloroethylene + 8%, dimethylcyclosiloxane (DMC) + 7%, xylene + 7%, phosphorus trichloride + 7%, MTBE + 6%, metal silicon (421) + 6%. The important products with the highest price decline this week are caustic soda – 9%, acetic acid – 8%, CIS polybutadiene rubber – 7%, glufosinate – 7%, acetonitrile – 6%, PVC paste resin – 6%.
Price rise and fall of upstream chemicals of new energy:
Chemicals related to photovoltaic industry chain: industrial silicon + 6%, trichlorosilane + 35%, soda ash (light and heavy), vinyl acetate + 1% and EVA (photovoltaic grade). Chemicals related to the lithium battery industry chain: phosphate rock (30%) is the same, phosphoric acid + 4%, lithium carbonate (industrial grade + 5%, battery grade + 5%), iron phosphate is the same, industrial monoammonium phosphate (73%) is the same, lithium hexafluorophosphate – 7%, etc.
Industrial silicon supported the cost, and downstream photovoltaic superimposed silicone recovered, pushing up the price of trichlorosilane. This week, the average market price of trichlorosilane increased by 20.7% to 17500 yuan / ton, and the photovoltaic grade trichlorosilane increased by 35.1% to 25000 yuan / ton. On the cost side, the price of metallic silicon rose this week, forming a strong cost support for trichlorosilane; On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the development of China’s photovoltaic industry continues to pick up recently, and the demand of China’s polysilicon and silicon wafer industry continues to increase. In addition, China’s silicone and silicone rubber market has fully recovered recently. Driven by this, the vapor phase silica market is also booming, and the demand for trichlorosilane is good; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the current operating level of trichlorosilane enterprises is acceptable.
The trend of compound fertilizer is upward, the international demand is warmer, and the price of ammonium sulfate is rising.
Ammonium sulfate (Linyi, Shandong) rose 17.9% to 1250 yuan / ton this week. On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, China’s compound fertilizer market has been raised locally. With the improvement of industrial and agricultural demand, the demand for spring ploughing has been advancing slowly. In addition, there are signs of recovery in the response of international demand, forming a favorable situation; On the supply side, according to Yingfu, during the two sessions and the Paralympic Games, the trend of environmental protection has been tightened, forming a positive trend.
The cost support was strong, the demand improved for a short time in February, and the price of polyether products rose.
The price of polyether products rose this week. Soft foam polyether (East China) rose 10.1% to 13100 yuan / ton, case polyether (220 / 210, East China) rose 10.1% to 14200 yuan / ton, and high rebound polyether (330n, East China) rose 9.2% to 14200 yuan / ton. On the cost side, propylene oxide (East China) rose 5.3% to 12000 yuan / ton this week. In addition, the soaring price of crude oil formed cost support; On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, polyether orders are in a weak position recently, but the stabilization of cyclopropane price leads to a short-term improvement in polyether orders at the end of February, and the follow-up volume of new orders is obvious, forming a favorable situation; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, polyether domestic and foreign trade ships began to circulate, and the plant also has a relatively stable production scheduling, and the supply of some large factories will increase in March.
In the traditional peak season in March, the supply of goods in the market was in short supply, and the price of silicone DMC rose. Methylcyclosiloxane (DMC) (East China) rose 7.1% to 37500 yuan / ton on Tuesday. On the cost side, the price of metal silicon rose this week, forming a strong cost support for silicone; On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the demand for resumption of production in the downstream has increased recently. March is the traditional peak season of silicone, and the demand for silicone rubber and silicone oil in the downstream is rising. In terms of foreign trade, with the gradual recovery of overseas economy, the demand for silicone export is relatively strong in the near future; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the orders of silicone monomer enterprises have been scheduled to the end of March. Due to the current low inventory, most of them have closed their sectors and stopped receiving new orders, and the supply of goods in the market is in short supply.
Some downstream enterprises are put into operation, and the supply in some regions is reduced, supporting the price of industrial silicon.
Metal silicon (421, Yunnan) rose 6.1% to 23500 yuan / ton this week. On the demand side, according to the prosperity recovery of Baichuan Yingfu, downstream silicone and polysilicon, some enterprises have increased production capacity and put into operation, forming a favorable situation; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the start-up of enterprises in Xinjiang is temporarily stable. Due to environmental protection inspection, individual enterprises reduce the load production and reduce the supply, which is good. The start-up of chemical grade metal silicon production enterprises in Southwest China is basically stable and the output is stable.
Risk warning: the price of raw materials fluctuates, and the downstream demand is less than expected.
