Pay attention to the double arbitrage logic of kerosene price comparison and coal price difference between the East and the West. Affected by geopolitics, international oil and gas prices continue to rise. At the same time, China still strictly controls the hyped coal price, and the cost advantage of coal chemical industry is obvious. China’s eastern and western resource endowments are different. The complete cost of self-produced coal in Xinjiang is close to 100 yuan / ton, and the outsourcing cost is less than 400 yuan / ton. At present, the spot price of purchased coal in the eastern region exceeds 1000 yuan / ton, and the cost difference between eastern and western coal chemical enterprises is obvious. It is suggested to pay attention to the enterprises with resource advantages in the west, especially those with their own coal, power plants and high power consumption chemicals, Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) , Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) , Xinjiang Zhongtai Chenical Co.Ltd(002092) , Xinjiang Tianye Co.Ltd(600075) , Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) , etc.
Repricing resources is a directional choice. Take 2020 as the starting point of the first year. Looking forward to the next 5-10 years, we need to make a directional judgment: the advantages of the resource side will be highlighted and amplified. With the combined restrictions of carbon neutralization, dual control of energy consumption and various supply side control measures of production capacity indicators, we will see that some enterprises with leading resource endowment layout, especially local state-owned enterprises, will show stronger competitive advantages in traditional industries such as coal chemical industry, salt chemical industry and phosphorus chemical industry, or industries with gradually resource attribute of industrial silicon and calcium carbide. The state-owned enterprises relying on better resource endowment are also expected to glow with stronger vitality in the gradual deepening of the reform of state-owned enterprises in recent years.
The above views were put forward by our team in the second half of the year, and we put forward the above views again at this time, which combines the consideration of the market and the international situation: 1) last year, the market mainly interpreted price elasticity, and the process of resource repricing showed that the profit center of relevant products rose, which is more applicable after the product price and stock price have been repaired and calm for 3-4 months. 2) The chaos of the international situation has exacerbated the upward trend of resource products represented by oil and gas, and the market consensus on inflation has been strengthened.
In terms of investment suggestions, we divide traditional chemical cycle companies into two categories, focusing on upstream resource-based companies and midstream processing companies. In H1 of 2022, we believe that the profits of the industry will be more inclined to the upstream, so we recommend resource advantage companies, including 1) agrochemical resource products companies represented by phosphate fertilizer and potassium fertilizer, Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) , Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) , Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) , etc; 2) Integrated companies in high power consumption industries represented by calcium carbide, caustic soda, BDO, industrial silicon and yellow phosphorus, Xinjiang Zhongtai Chenical Co.Ltd(002092) , Xinjiang Tianye Co.Ltd(600075) , Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) , Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , etc; 3) Companies enjoying low-cost resource arbitrage in the West and companies with their own power plants, Xinjiang Zhongtai Chenical Co.Ltd(002092) , Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) , Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) , Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) , etc.
Phosphorus chemical industry has returned to the cost performance range. 1) Due to the supply of key raw materials, Bayer glyphosate production line is expected to be repaired for about three months, which is expected to raise the price of glyphosate. 2) The price of phosphate fertilizer is still very strong in the off-season, and we are expected to see the price rise again when the peak spring farming season comes. 3) The international price of chemical fertilizer caused by the ban on the export of chemical fertilizer has a large price difference with that in China. The market expects that the state may liberalize the export restrictions of chemical fertilizer after spring ploughing, which will prolong the boom sustainability of agrochemical industry. After three months of adjustment, phosphorus chemical industry has returned to the range of cost performance. We strongly recommend that you pay attention to the companies of phosphorus chemical industry, Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) , Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) , etc.
Risk warning: safety accidents affect the commencement; Rapid iteration of technical route; Changes in environmental protection policies.
