Key investment points
Investment strategy: this week, the overall coal price continues to rise, and the import upside down phenomenon is more serious. The impact of the Russian Ukrainian issue on the international energy market has gradually become prominent. In 2021, Russia exported 223 million tons of coal (accounting for about 16% – 17% of the global share), mainly to China, Japan, South Korea, the Netherlands, Ukraine and other countries. Many countries are considering shifting coal imports to Australia, Indonesia and other countries, further exacerbating the tense situation of international coal supply, It has pushed up the international coal price, even exceeding the high point in 2021, constantly breaking the record high, forming support for China’s coal price, and the industry as a whole will maintain a high boom. In terms of individual stock recommendation, companies with a high proportion of long-term association have more stable performance growth, companies with a high proportion of coal in the market have more attractive valuation, and companies with large advantages of coal types or logic of output growth have strong competitiveness α In addition, coal stocks that actively layout energy transformation will also get the opportunity to improve their valuation. Thermal coal stocks are suggested to pay attention to: Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited(600188) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , power investment energy, Beijing Haohua Energy Resource Co.Ltd(601101) . Metallurgical coal stocks are suggested to pay attention to: Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Jizhong Energy Resources Co.Ltd(000937) , Shanxi Coking Co.Ltd(600740) . Anthracite recommended attention: Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) . Coke stocks are suggested to pay attention to: Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) , Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , China Xuyang group, Kailuan Energy Chemical Co.Ltd(600997) , Shaanxi Heimao Coking Co.Ltd(601015) .
Summary and Prospect of thermal coal: the demand is hot, and the international coal price continues to rise. This week, the market is still running strongly. In terms of supply, the shipment of main producing areas is good and the transportation is active. Affected by the price limit and the supervision of the long-term association, the guaranteed supply coal mines are not sold abroad, the supply of goods is tight, there is a large-scale queue at the pit mouth, and the downstream demand is strong, so it is difficult to improve the port inventory; The impact of the Winter Olympic Games, the Paralympic Games and the two sessions has always existed, and the supply is still tight.
In terms of import, affected by the war between Russia and Ukraine, Russia’s export business is blocked, the international energy supply situation is tight, the international acceptance of high prices is improved, and the international demand turns to Indonesia, Australia and other countries, resulting in tight supply of coal in Indonesia, sharp rise in quotation and serious upside down of imported coal. It is expected that the price of imported coal will still rise in the near future. In terms of demand, the inventory of downstream power plants is low and the demand for replenishment is strong; Non electric power enterprises have resumed work, the pace of replenishment has accelerated, and the demand continues to release. China’s two sessions are about to be held. The management of environmental protection and production safety will be stricter, the supply will remain tight, and the coal price may continue to be strong. In the follow-up, we still need to pay attention to the demand for replenishment and the impact of Russia Ukraine issues on the international coal market.
Summary and Prospect of coking coal: the demand improves and the coal price continues to rise. As of March 4, the price of Shanxi produced main coke coal depot in Jingtang Port has increased by 2930 yuan / ton (including tax), and the prices of all kinds of coal have increased. In terms of supply, recently, the coal mines have resumed work one after another. There is an increase in the supply side, the utilization of production capacity has improved, more coal mines have shipped smoothly, and the overall inventory still shows a downward trend. Due to the shortage of resources and the difficulty of replenishing the inventory, some coke enterprises have passively reduced the inventory. In terms of importing Mongolian coal, Ganqi Maodu port passed Customs on the 4th of this week, with an average of 143 vehicles per day (week on week + 51 vehicles), and the customs clearance volume rebounded, but there are still few tradable resources, and the quotation continues to rise. In terms of demand, the profits of coke enterprises have rebounded, the procurement is still active, traders are also active in taking goods, and there are many pre-sale orders for some coal mines, and the market supply is still tight. Then continue to pay attention to the production and downstream demand of coke enterprises.
Summary and Prospect of coke: the second round of rising and landing, and there is still upward momentum in the future. As of March 4, the price of secondary metallurgical coke in Tangshan was 3200 yuan / ton, and the second round of price increase fell to the ground. In terms of supply, although the profits of coke enterprises have rebounded month on month, there is still some interference in the production area environmental protection and production restriction during the two sessions. The start-up of enterprises in some regions fell slightly, and the supply side is still tight. In terms of demand, the downstream steel mills continued to resume production, the start-up of blast furnace and the output of molten iron increased significantly, and the demand for steel mills rose steadily, supporting the strong demand for steel mills to replenish storage, but the coke resources were tight, and the inventory of steel mills continued to decline. On the whole, with the support of demand, coke prices are still rising.
Port: coal prices were flat, while port power stocks were flat. (1) As of March 4, the price of 5500 kcal Shanxi thermal coal was 940 yuan / ton, unchanged on a week-on-week basis. (2) As of March 1, the price of power coal in Newcastle was US $265.94/ton, up 7.1% week on week. (3) As of March 4, the transfer in volume of Qinhuangdao port railway was 570000 tons, with an increase of 100000 tons compared with the week on month. The coal port throughput of Qinhuangdao port was 560000 tons, an increase of 95000 tons on a weekly basis. (4) As of March 4, the inventory of Qinhuangdao port was 4.95 million tons, an increase of 45000 tons on a weekly basis. The coal inventory in the Yangtze River Estuary was 2.91 million tons, with a decrease of 70000 tons on a weekly basis
Coking coal: the price of coking coal in China has risen, and the inventory of coking plants has increased month on month. (1) As of March 4, the price increase (including tax) of the main coking coal depot produced in Shanxi of Jingtang Port was 2930 yuan / ton, up 100% on a weekly basis. (2) As of March 4, the price of hard coking coal in Fengjing mine was US $529.00/ton, up 10.15% on a weekly basis; The price of low volatile injection coal was $280 / ton, up 5.66% on a weekly basis. (3) As of March 4, the total inventory of coking coal of China’s independent coking plants (100) was 11.543 million tons, with an increase of 47000 tons on a weekly basis, 16.0 days of available coking coal and a decrease of 0.30 days on a weekly basis.
Coke: the price rose month on month, and the operating rate of coking plant increased. (1) As of March 4, the price of secondary metallurgical coke in Tangshan was 3200 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan on a weekly basis. (2) The coke oven productivity of China’s independent coking plants (100) was 74.80%, and the cycle to cycle ratio increased by 2.10%; (3) As of March 4, the national blast furnace operating rate was 45.99%, with a decrease of 0.42% on a weekly basis. (4) As of March 4, the coke inventory of China’s sample steel plants (110) was 7.3317 million tons, with a decrease of 244900 tons on a weekly basis; As of March 4, the total coke inventory of three types of coking enterprises (production capacity 1 million tons; production capacity 1-2 million tons; production capacity 2 million tons) was 624000 tons, with a decrease of 319000 tons on a weekly basis.
Review of industry highlights: (1) the national development and Reform Commission has deployed and arranged the supervision of medium and long-term coal contracts in 2022; (2) the verification of coal storage capacity of coal production enterprises has been carried out, and the later role will be further highlighted; (3) the situation in Russia has driven the rise of market risk aversion, Indonesian power coal prices soared (4) national coal consumption increased by 4.6% in 2021 (5) five coal mining projects have been approved this year
Risk warning: the economic growth rate is lower than expected; Excessive policy regulation; Renewable energy substitution, etc; Risk of coal import impact.
