Industry core view:
2021.12. 20-2021.12. 24: the new power industry rose by – 7.37% this week, and the CSI 300 rose by – 0.67% in the same period, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.7pct. It ranks 31st among Shenwan’s 31 industry sectors.
Key investment points:
New energy vehicles: according to the traffic compulsory insurance data, the number of domestic new energy passenger vehicles insured in November was 381700, up 31.3% month on month, including 308000 pure electric vehicles, up 29.8% month on month. Hongguang mini, modely and Byd Company Limited(002594) Han EV accounted for the top three in sales. Entering the traditional peak season at the end of the year, the sales of new energy vehicles continued to increase, and the industry boom continued. It is recommended to focus on Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (300750), Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) (300073), and Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) (603659).
New energy power generation: according to the notice on the list of the first batch of large-scale wind power and photovoltaic base construction projects focusing on deserts, Gobi and desert areas issued by the national energy administration, the project involves 19 provinces with a total scale of 97.05gw. The promotion of Fengguang large base ensures the lower limit of installed capacity of centralized power stations in the next two years, and the demand for new energy is highly uncertain. In terms of photovoltaic, according to pvinfolink data, the price of photovoltaic industry chain has dropped significantly in the past two weeks. Compared with the beginning of the month, the silicon material has dropped by 12%, 182 silicon wafer has dropped by 8%, 210 silicon wafer has dropped by 12%, cell wafer price has dropped by 6% and module price has dropped by 3%. After the price reduction, demand is expected to recover. It is recommended to focus on Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) (601012), Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) (600438), Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) (002459), Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) (601865), and Beijing Jingyuntong Technology Co.Ltd(601908) (601908). In terms of wind power, the bidding price of wind turbines rebounded this week. According to the statistics of the international energy network, the average bid winning price of wind turbines this week was 2410 yuan / kW, an increase of 12.61% over the same period last month. After the bidding price of wind turbines rebounded, the profitability of the industrial chain is expected to improve. It is recommended that Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) (002202), Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) (601615) and Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) (688186).
Hydrogen energy: on December 21, the development and Reform Commission of Hebei Province issued the publicity list of 2021 power source network load storage integration and multi energy complementarity pilot projects in Hebei Province. 11 pilot projects have been publicized, of which 6 include hydrogen production links, with a total hydrogen production capacity of 39000 Nm3 / h. The largest hydrogen production project is the agricultural, animal husbandry, light, wind and water storage multi energy complementary smart energy demonstration project of national power investment Fengning green energy energy Co., Ltd., with a hydrogen production capacity of 20000 Nm3 / h. We suggest to pay more attention to the development of hydrogen energy storage plate next year. It is recommended to focus on Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) (688339), Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) (000338), and Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) (000723).
Electrical equipment: on December 26, the Nanchang Changsha 1000 kV high voltage AC project of the state grid was completed and put into operation. Two 1000 kV substations were built, with a new 12 million KVA substation capacity and a line length of 2 × 341 km, with a total investment of 10.2 billion yuan, which will increase the power supply capacity of Hunan and Jiangxi power grids by more than 3.5 million KW. The power grid investment picked up significantly during the 14th Five Year Plan period. It is suggested to pay attention to the primary and secondary main equipment suppliers of the power grid.
Risk factors: the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; Safety risks of new energy vehicles; Affected by the epidemic, the opening of photovoltaic market was less than expected; Price fluctuation risk of raw materials; The approval and commencement of offshore wind power are not as expected; The wind power project has been approved, and the grid connection is not as expected; The growth of PV installed capacity was lower than expected; Power grid investment is less than expected.
