Key points:
The valuation of the new energy vehicle sector is high, but the performance of listed companies is growing rapidly, and the overvalued value can be digested
New energy vehicle stocks fell sharply in December 2021 and January 2022, mainly due to the rapid rise in the early stage, the fear of heights in the market and the impact of year-end / pre holiday liquidity. Since February 2022, the shares of new energy vehicles have stabilized and rebounded, especially with the disclosure of annual reports, the varieties with high growth performance have performed well. As of February 28, 2022, Wande new energy vehicle index rose by 41.9% in the past year, but the valuation (PE, TTM) decreased by 18.1% to 62.2 times, and the valuation decreased significantly, mainly due to the company’s profitability. We believe that the sales volume of new energy vehicles will grow rapidly in 2021, the boom of the industrial chain will soar, the performance of relevant listed companies should be expected, and the overvalued value can be digested. The current time point is approaching the intensive disclosure period of annual reports / first quarterly reports of listed companies. With the release of 2021 annual reports of relevant listed companies, the high performance growth can be realized, and the valuation of new energy vehicles is expected to further explore.
The output guidance of Yabao in 2022 is lower than the market expectation, and the shortage of lithium supply may not be alleviated in the short term
Yabao released its 2021 annual report. In 2021, Yabao’s lithium salt output was 88000 tons, and in 2022, the lithium salt output guideline was 10 Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) 4000 tons (+ 20-30%), corresponding to the lithium salt increment of 180 Lingyi Itech (Guangdong) Company(002600) 0 tons. Yabao has three lithium salt plants put into operation in 2022 and the resumption of production of wodgina spodumene mine, which is considered to be one of the main forces of lithium supply increment in 2022. However, the output guidance given by Yabao in 2022 is lower than the market expectation, reflecting the slow ramp up of production capacity and the shortage of lithium supply, which may not be alleviated in the short term.
The list of installed capacity of global power batteries was released, and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) has a solid leading position and a dominant company; To get rid of the second period of dependence on new forces
2 / 7 sneresearch, a South Korean Market Research Institute, released the list of global power battery installed capacity in 2021. The top ten are Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , LG new energy, Panasonic, Byd Company Limited(002594) , skon, Samsung SDI, China Innovation airlines, Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , vision power and honeycomb energy Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) once again dominated the list, and compared with LG new energy, it has a solid leading position and one dominant company; Skon’s development is radical and has surpassed Samsung SDI to rank fifth; Panasonic and vision AESC grew slowly. 2 / 24 Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) Automobile Battery Co., Ltd. received a total capital increase of 2.43 billion yuan from 19 enterprises. Among them, Jiangsu chehejia Automobile Co., Ltd., an affiliated enterprise of ideal automobile, led the investment of 400 million yuan. Weilan new energy, which specializes in solid-state batteries with the background of the Institute of physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, was introduced by Weilai automobile, and then Xiaopeng automobile was introduced into Zhongchuang Chuang hang. Taking into account the investment of Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) automobile batteries led by the ideal automobile related enterprise this time, the new forces of automobile manufacturing with growing wings have sought power battery suppliers other than Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) in order to get rid of dependence.
Investment advice
With the realization of high performance growth, the situation of overestimation of new energy vehicle sector has eased, so it is recommended to pay attention. In each segment, lithium companies benefit from the soaring price of lithium under the contradiction between supply and demand, and the performance flexibility is very large; China lithium battery materials Co., Ltd. is very important and difficult to replace in the global new energy vehicle supply chain. It can enjoy the high growth of new energy vehicle market outside China, and with the in-depth interpretation of the market, the market is digging deeper and deeper; Traditional automobile enterprises are value valleys. Over the years, the market has almost ignored traditional fuel automobile enterprises and actively transformed new energy vehicles. In the long run, there are opportunities for value revaluation. Maintain the “overweight” rating of the industry.
Risk tips
The new energy vehicle industry is greatly affected by the policy and the boom fluctuates violently; Industry competition intensifies.
