1. Credit extension is divided into four stages
① four stages: according to the different credit environment and economic development status, the wide credit cycle can be divided into monetary easing (loose monetary environment), the initial stage of wide credit (wide credit and economic pressure), the middle stage of wide credit (loose credit and good economy), and the later stage of wide credit (tight credit and good economy).
② historical recovery: Taking the growth rate of social finance as the indicator to measure the credit environment and the growth rate of medium and long-term financing of enterprises as the indicator to measure the state of economic development, there have been four wide credit cycles since 2011, namely, November 2011 to November 2013, November 2014 to October 2017, July 2018 to December 2019 and March 2020 to June 2021.
2. Infrastructure real estate is the core driver
After reviewing the four rounds of wide credit cycle since 2011, we found the following common characteristics: ① in terms of driving factors, the core driving factors of wide credit focus on infrastructure and real estate. In addition to 20182019, the core drivers of the other three rounds of wide credit are infrastructure and real estate investment. In 20182019, infrastructure has become the main driver due to the policy guidance of “no speculation in housing and housing”. ② In terms of market performance, bank stocks have both absolute and relative returns. In the four wide credit cycles of 20122013, 20152017, 20182019 and 20202021, the bank index achieved absolute returns of 22.2%, 60.1%, 29.7% and 20.2% respectively, and achieved relative returns except for the wide credit cycle of 20202021. In terms of different credit extension stages, in the two stages of monetary easing and medium-term credit extension, the probability of bank index has both absolute and relative returns.
3. At present, it is in the early stage of credit easing
① current situation: at present, it is in the early stage of credit easing. The growth rate of social finance saw an upward inflection point in November 2021, but there was no obvious inflection point in the growth rate of medium and long-term financing of enterprises, indicating that the credit environment is loose, but the downward pressure of the economy is large. The economic state is the main factor affecting the current wide credit. We need to pay attention to the strength of infrastructure investment and the recovery of real estate investment.
② looking forward to the future: it is estimated that the annual social financing increment in 2022 will be 33.2 trillion, corresponding to a year-on-year increase of about 1.8 trillion; The balance increased by 10.6% year-on-year, a slight increase of 0.3pc compared with 2021. The credit increment is expected to be 21 trillion yuan, with the growth rate down 0.7pc to 10.9%. In February, the increment of social finance is expected to reach 2.0 trillion, with an increase of about 257.1 billion year-on-year. The corresponding social finance balance increased by 10.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was flat month on month; Among them, RMB credit increased by about 1.4 trillion, and the increment was basically the same year-on-year.
4. Optimistic about investment opportunities in bank stocks
At present, similar to the early stage of credit relief in 2019, the tone of monetary policy emphasizes stabilizing leverage. Under the policy guidance of “housing, housing and non speculation”, the core driving factor of credit relief is infrastructure investment. In the 19-year wide credit cycle, the bank index rose 29.7% and achieved a relative return of 17.9%. Among them, in the early stage of credit easing, the bank index increased significantly, with a cumulative increase of 20.4%. Optimistic about the current investment opportunities in the banking sector. For individual stocks, recommendations: Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) / Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) + Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) / Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) .
5. Risk warning: macroeconomic stall and sharp outbreak of adverse
