Resumption of historical crude oil and bulk commodity prices: the settlement price of Brent crude oil NYMEX futures broke through the $100 / barrel mark for the third time in seven years, more than on February 28. Before 2022, the international crude oil price broke through the $100 / barrel mark twice at the end of February 2008 and January 2011 respectively, and the oil price remained at a high level above $100 / barrel in the following months or years. Looking back on the two sharp increases in oil prices in history, OPEC’s restrictions on crude oil production occurred in 2008 and 2011. At the same time, geopolitical conflicts related to oil producing countries have also occurred. The conflict between Iran and Israel in 2008, the outbreak of the Libyan war in 2011, the subsequent rise of local forces in Libya and the intervention of some western countries continued to destabilize the regional situation.
We further sorted out the price levels and fluctuations of relevant representative bulk chemicals during the period when the crude oil price was above US $100 / barrel in history. In the first stage of the historical high oil price (from February 28 to September 28, 2008), nearly 60% of the product prices of the relevant bulk commodities we sorted out have reached the highest level in history (more than 99% quantile). The more upstream products are, the higher the correlation between the price and the fluctuation of crude oil price is. Especially for refined oil and naphtha, the correlation between the price fluctuation and crude oil price (i.e. correlation coefficient) is more than 95%. At the same time, even if the relevant products are not the direct or indirect products of crude oil (such as natural gas, ethane, etc.), they also have a certain price correlation due to the mutual transmission between industrial chains. In the second stage of historical high oil prices (from January 31, 2011 to September 8, 2014), the price fluctuation range of relevant chemicals other than refined oil and naphtha has significantly expanded, and the fluctuation correlation between the price of relevant chemicals and the price of crude oil has significantly weakened. The main reason is that due to the long time span of this stage, although the oil price continues to be at a high level, the price of subdivided chemicals is affected by other aspects such as the relationship between supply and demand, which increases the fluctuation range of the price of related chemicals. However, from the perspective of average price level, the average price of most chemicals during this period is at an all-time high level (more than 70% of the historical quantile).
Weekly rise and fall of sectors: in the past five trading days, the sectors of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rose and fell. This week, the Shanghai stock index fell 0.11%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.93%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 1.68% and the gem index fell 3.75%. CITIC basic chemical fell 3.2%, ranking 27th in all sectors. In the past five trading days, most of the sub sectors of the chemical industry showed a downward trend. The top five sub sectors were viscose (+ 5.2%), inorganic salt (+ 3.6%), soda (+ 3.5%), nitrogen fertilizer (+ 2.1%) and chlor alkali (+ 1.4%). The last five sub sectors of the rise and fall range are carbon fiber (- 11.4%), lithium chemicals (- 10.0%), tires (- 6.4%), other chemicals (- 5.2%) and membrane materials (- 4.7%).
Investment suggestions: (1) the upstream oil and gas sector is suggested to pay attention to Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) , CNOOC, Enn Natural Gas Co.Ltd(600803) and other oil service targets. (2) White horse, the leader of undervalued chemical industry: it is suggested to pay attention to ① three chemical white horses: Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) ; ② Private refining and chemical fiber sector: Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) ; ③ Light hydrocarbon cracking sector: Satellite chemistry, Oriental Energy Co.Ltd(002221) ; ④ Coal to olefin: Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) . (3) Plate: sector sector of new material sector: suggestions and concerns: sector sector sector: sector sector of sector: sector of sector: sector of sector: sector of sector: sector of sector: the following concerns: ① semiconductor materials: the Crystal Clear Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300655) \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\; ② Wind power materials: carbon fiber, polyether amine, matrix resin, interlayer materials, structural adhesive and other related enterprises; ③ Lithium battery materials: electrolyte, lithium battery diaphragm, phosphorus chemical industry, fluorine chemical industry and other related enterprises; ④ Photovoltaic materials: upstream silicon materials, EVA, soda ash and other related enterprises; ⑤ OLED industry chain: Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) , Xi’An Manareco New Materials Co.Ltd(688550) , Jilin Oled Material Tech Co.Ltd(688378) , Puyang Huicheng Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300481) . (4) Traditional cycle sector: it is suggested to pay attention to relevant targets in the fields of pesticides, coal chemical industry, urea, dyes, vitamins, chlor alkali, etc.
Risk analysis: the risk of rapid decline and high oil price; Downstream demand is less than expected risk
