Industry perspective update:
Keep submits prospectus: online fitness leading platform, technology empowerment + high-quality content driven commercialization. According to the keep prospectus, the company's revenue in the first three quarters of 21 years reached 1.16 billion yuan (year-on-year + 41.3%), and its adjusted net profit in the first three quarters of 21 years was - 700 million yuan due to increased marketing investment. We believe that the competitiveness of the company is mainly reflected in the continuous iteration of content and the optimization of user experience through artificial intelligence after having the first mover advantage and accumulating a large user group, so as to build a strong brand stickiness. From the perspective of the company's realization mode, it is mainly divided into three modes: advertising, member payment and private brand products. The revenue in the first three quarters of 21 years was 140 / 3.8 / 640 million yuan respectively, and the realization path is becoming clearer and clearer.
Home furnishing: in terms of real estate, at present, the substantive relaxation policies in various regions are continuously implemented, and the government work report once again puts forward "support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, stabilize land prices, house prices and expectations, and promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry due to urban policies", We believe that if cities around the country are upgraded due to the relaxation of urban policies after the two sessions, the valuation of the overall household sector is expected to be further repaired. In this context, we believe that on the one hand, we will continue to focus on Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) , which has gradually improved its own operation and has large space for valuation repair. On the other hand, under the general trend of customization and software integration, we are still optimistic about Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , which are significantly ahead in comprehensive ability.
New type tobacco: Recently, the share price of SIMORE has been adjusted greatly. We believe that the fundamentals of the company have not changed substantially, mainly due to the expected fluctuation of the market on the company's business in China: 1) a customer of the company in China has ceramic core products not supplied by the company, and the market is worried that the share of the company will be affected in the future, However, according to the feedback from the terminal, the product power of this product is still far from that of smore; 2) China's policy is expected to be implemented soon, and market concerns appear again. In the overseas market, according to the company's feedback, the current performance is still relatively ideal. Under the background that the new director of FDA Dr. Robert M. Calif has officially taken office, PMTA certification is expected to accelerate, which is expected to drive the operation environment of head brands and manufacturers to further improve. Moreover, the company's disposable e-cigarette will significantly contribute to the growth this year, and the medical beauty atomization products are gradually promoting the marketization. On the whole, the medium and long-term growth of the company is still expected.
Papermaking: cost support + marginal improvement of supply and demand, and the recovery of fundamentals drives the valuation and repair of the sector. Under the catalysis of the marginal recovery of demand for cultural paper driven by the academic flood season, the pressure on the import side has weakened, some kinds of paper represented by white cardboard have shown their price advantages under the pressure of overseas energy & force majeure, and the export side has performed vigorously, promoting the further improvement of the supply and demand pattern. In addition, affected by the pressure on the cost supply side, the price of wood pulp is rising continuously, which supports the smooth implementation of the price increase of paper enterprises. We believe that the industry has gradually entered the recovery period from the bottom, and we are optimistic about the valuation repair market brought by the upward profit per ton of the sector.
Consumer Light Industry: since 2021h2, the traditional stationery industry has been affected by the epidemic and the double reduction policy, and the willingness of the industrial chain to prepare the warehouse + the downstream demand has been affected, resulting in a phased process of performance. With the digestion of the industrial chain inventory + the improvement trend of the dynamic sales margin catalyzed by the primary school flood season, it is optimistic that the leading stationery enterprise Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) will actively repair the growth through the adjustment of product structure strategy and channel structure, Q1 is optimistic about quarterly repair and improvement. In the medium and long term, under the Growth Logic of category expansion and structural optimization, the capacity boundary is expected to continue to expand. The new businesses kelipu and Jiumu are expected to further improve the growth quality on the basis of high growth and ensure the medium and long-term growth momentum.
Investment advice
Home furnishing: recommend Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) (Integrated Business & platform), Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) (domestic share concentration & export profit elasticity), Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) (it is improving in many aspects, and there is a large space for valuation repair).
Papermaking: it is recommended that Xianhe Co.Ltd(603733) , the impact of one-time energy cost has passed, and the price increase letters of 500 yuan / ton / time have been successively issued for key paper products in February and March. The first batch of price increases have been implemented smoothly, with high demand and capacity expansion supporting the growth logic. At present, the PE valuation is only 15x.
Risk factors
The extent and duration of the slowdown in China's consumption growth exceeded expectations; Real estate sales have been shrinking sharply for a long time; The price of raw materials rose faster and longer than expected; The exchange rate fluctuates greatly
