Key investment points:
Environmental protection perspective: the government work report proposes to continuously improve the ecological environment and promote green and low-carbon development
According to the government work report, China will continue to improve the ecological environment and promote green and low-carbon development in 2022. On the one hand, we should strengthen the comprehensive management of the ecological environment and fight a tough battle of pollution prevention and control; On the other hand, we will promote carbon neutralization in an orderly manner, implement the carbon summit action plan, promote the energy revolution, ensure energy supply and promote the low-carbon transformation of energy. 1) The implementation of carbon peak action has become the focus of work in the field of environment in 2022. In October 2021, the action plan for carbon peak before 2030 was officially released, and the overall deployment of carbon peak was implemented, which led the relevant parties to deploy and formulate carbon peak implementation plans in the fields of energy, industry, urban and rural construction, transportation, agriculture and rural areas. On the premise of the implementation of the plan and the launch of the national carbon emission trading market, 2022 will become the first complete year for China to promote the implementation of the specific action goal of carbon peak, and will actively promote the transformation of low-carbon energy and the energy conservation and carbon reduction of "two high" industries. 2) Comprehensive treatment of the ecological environment has been promoted in an all-round way, and attention has been paid to energy and water conservation and recycling of waste materials. Compared with the key work in the field of environmental protection in 2021, the collection and treatment of hazardous and medical wastes will no longer be emphasized in 2022, and the supporting policies in the fields of energy conservation, water saving and recycling of waste materials will be added and improved. Since the implementation of waste classification policy, the recycling of waste materials has attracted policy attention for many times. The plan also proposes to improve the recycling network of waste materials and realize the full collection of renewable resources; By 2025, the recycling capacity of nine major renewable resources, including waste iron and steel, waste copper, waste aluminum, waste lead, waste zinc, waste paper, waste plastic, waste rubber and waste glass, will reach 450 million tons, and 510 million tons by 2030. The construction of waste material recycling system is expected to accelerate and benefit companies in the field of recycling. 3) The installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic will still maintain a high growth rate. The plan proposes that by 2030, the total installed capacity of wind power and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation will reach more than 1.2 billion kw. By the end of 2021, China's installed capacity of grid connected wind power and photovoltaic power was 328 million KW and 307 million KW respectively, totaling 635 million KW. If the installed capacity target in 2030 is to be achieved, the installed capacity will need to be increased by 565 million kW in the next nine years, with a CAGR of 7.33%.
Expertise and new ideas: innovative enterprise R & D will be encouraged again, focusing on the two main investment lines of domestic substitution and "carbon neutralization"
According to the government work report, in 2022, we will strengthen the incentive for enterprise innovation, strengthen the implementation of the policy of adding and deducting R & D expenses, increase the proportion of adding and deducting scientific and technological small and medium-sized enterprises from 75% to 100%, implement tax incentives for enterprises to invest in basic research, and improve policies such as accelerated depreciation of equipment and instruments and income tax incentives for high-tech enterprises. The 2021 government work report also proposed to increase the proportion of R & D expenses plus deduction of manufacturing enterprises from 75% to 100%; This time, the expression will be changed to science and technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises, which is expected to benefit more enterprises and stimulate scientific research and innovation. Considering the strength of policy support and the urgency of demand, it is suggested to pay attention to two main investment lines: 1) domestic substitution: there is a problem of high import dependence in some "neck" areas of manufacturing industry. Under the background of trade friction, the demand for domestic substitutes such as core parts is becoming stronger and stronger. Made in China 2025 proposes that 70% of core basic parts and key basic materials will be independently guaranteed by 2025. Under the policy of encouraging the rapid growth of enterprises with core competitiveness, it is expected to accelerate the development of relevant products. 2) "Carbon neutralization": the 30 / 60 target is determined. It is expected that during the 14th Five Year Plan period, the installed scale of photovoltaic and wind power and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles are expected to accelerate, driving the rapid growth of the demand for components and equipment in the whole industry chain.
Industry rating and investment strategy: the short-term and medium-term demand of some segments of the environmental protection industry has increased, and the overall valuation of the industry is slightly higher than the average value of recent one year, which can be arranged on bargain hunting; There is an urgent need for the cultivation of "specialized, special and new" enterprises and strong policy support, which is conducive to the rapid development of enterprises in the industry. Based on this, we maintain the "recommended" rating of environmental protection & specialized, special and new industries.
Suggestions for attention this week: Pony Testing International Group Co.Ltd(300887) (buy), Gcl Energy Technology Co.Ltd(002015) , Shenzhen Yanmade Technology Inc(688312) , Guangdong Huatie Tongda High-Speed Railway Equipment Corporation(000976)
Risk warning: the progress of policy implementation is less than expected; The order growth rate of listed companies was lower than expected; Changes in tax preference system; The progress of M & A is less than expected; Repeated impact of the epidemic; Focus on the company's performance less than expected.
