Precious metals: risk aversion boosted the rebound of gold, and non-agricultural University exceeded expectations to curb the rise of gold. Gold: ① risk aversion: Russia’s military action has not slowed down. As the most effective hedging asset, gold continues to be favored by the market and continues to rebound sharply during the week. The market has ignored the impact of the Fed’s interest rate hike in March on gold prices. In the short term, gold will still benefit from the rise of risk aversion driven by geopolitical conflicts, and the high price will fluctuate upward. ② Inflation expectation: after some Russian banks were excluded from swift, Russia’s oil and gas exports were substantially restricted, and overseas inflation pressure intensified. With the sharp rise of crude oil and other commodity prices, the pace of interest rate hike in the United States is becoming more and more urgent, and the medium-term gold price is facing greater pressure. Powell said that “the Federal Reserve will stabilize prices at all costs”, supported the interest rate increase of 25bp at the FOMC meeting in March, and immediately started the table contraction after the first interest rate increase. In addition, the U.S. non farm payrolls recorded an increase of 678000 after the quarterly adjustment in February, the largest increase since July last year. The unemployment rate fell to 3.8% month on month. Continuous improvement in employment provided an economic basis for the U.S. interest rate hike, and hawkish statements also limited the rise of gold to a certain extent.
Base metals: the disturbance of overseas supply is weak in the fundamentals and strong outside, and the external market leads the general rise of industrial metals. (1) Copper: ① macroscopically, the geopolitical conflict between Ukraine and Russia has increased the uncertainty of metal market supply, which has become the core catalyst for the rise of short-term industrial metals. In February, the PMI performance of manufacturing industry in China and the United States was better than expected. The non-agricultural sector also greatly exceeded expectations on Friday night, which led to the recovery of optimism in the market economy and the rise of copper price; ② In terms of supply, at present, the copper concentrate inventory of the smelter is relatively abundant, and the spot TC processing fee of copper concentrate is rising steadily. This week, it has exceeded US $65 / ton and is close to the quotation of US $70 / ton, which reflects the gradual easing trend of the mine end as a whole. According to the news, Chile’s copper production in January 2022 hit the lowest level since 2011, with 429900 tons, a month on month decrease of 15% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.5%. The reasons may include: 1. Fluctuation of ore grade; 2. The mine may be in the process of postponement and maintenance during the epidemic; 3. The shortage of water resources also affects the production in central Chile; ③ In terms of demand & inventory, the global copper Inventory (China social Treasury (including SHFE) + bonded + LME + Comex exchange) was 627000 tons, 12000 tons more than last week. Among them, China’s total inventory increased by 19100 tons, LME inventory decreased by 5100 tons, and the global inventory accumulation rate continued to slow down. The overall bright spot of China’s downstream consumption is difficult to find. Copper prices continued to rise, curbing the production enthusiasm of power cable enterprises, and the spot copper trading market was relatively light as a whole. Under the pattern of internal weakness and external strength, the copper import loss has expanded to more than 3000 yuan / ton, and the minimum import copper premium has fallen to 0 liter. Against the background of the current Russian Ukrainian war and soaring energy prices, the US economy is expected to improve and CPI continues to rise. Market transactions ignore fundamental seasonal factors, macro optimistic expectations dominate market bull sentiment, and copper prices have room to continue to rise. (2) Aluminum: ① inventory: 17900 to 1182700 tons were removed from the stock exchange on Wednesday, including 26100 tons of LME inventory. China’s social Treasury accumulated 49500 to 1104600 tons, with a significant decline in the accumulation rate and a decrease of 50300 tons compared with the same period last year; ② Supply: electrolytic aluminum production resumed from 180000 tons to 38.34 million tons this week, and there are still 1.08 million tons of production capacity to be restored. In addition, according to IAI statistics, in January 2022, global aluminum production decreased by 4.5% year-on-year to 5.513 million tons, a month on month decrease of 1.9%, mainly due to the European energy crisis and China’s lower than expected resumption of production. Recently, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has escalated, and many countries have announced plans to impose sanctions on Russia, which may affect Russia’s export volume. In addition, Russia’s electrolytic gas project will be suspended due to the superposition of overseas aluminum production crisis and natural gas production reduction in Europe on the 2nd. In addition, as the current sharp premium of overseas aluminum leads to the closure of the import window, the recovery of China’s aluminum inventory cannot rely on the improvement of imported aluminum, and the accumulation trend may continue to weaken; ③ Demand: from February 20, some enterprises with limited production in the early stage of the eastern Olympic Games in the north have resumed production one after another, and the recovery of downstream construction has driven the increase of electrolytic aluminum demand. At the same time, in the overseas high premium market, the demand for export orders of aluminum processed products may increase significantly, and the growth of downstream orders may increase significantly. Under the environment of difficult recovery of supply outside China, continuous recovery of demand, low inventory and significant premium of overseas aluminum price, China’s aluminum price may follow up. Suggestions and concerns include the following: the ‘ China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\, Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.Ltd(002532) .
Energy metals: the price of nickel, cobalt and lithium continued to rise synchronously, and the downstream cost pressure began to appear. (1) Lithium: during the week, electric carbon rose by 22000 yuan / ton to 507400 yuan / ton, and the spot market continued to be strong; The price growth of lithium concentrate slowed down, and the profit space of electric carbon increased by 19300 yuan / ton to 272500 yuan / ton during the week. From the resource side to 2023, the upstream resource projects are basically determined. Under the trend of advanced investment in new energy and new infrastructure, the gap between supply and demand may continue to enlarge, and the resource side enterprises are expected to continue to make profits. (2) The price of nickel sulfate rose to rmb0.834 million / ton of nickel sulfate this week, up from rmb0.834 million / week. SMM news said that POSCO’s 30000 ton / year high nickel matte refining project undertaken by China ENFI was officially started, the geographical conflict pushed up the nickel price sharply, and the high profit space of nickel sulfate compared with ferronickel stimulated the accelerated investment and construction of new upstream projects; (3) Cobalt: China’s cobalt sulfate rose 3.0% to 120000 yuan / ton; MB cobalt price rose 2.61% to US $36.4/lb; The CIF quotation of cobalt intermediate products increased by 2.6% to US $32.40/lb. The price of cobalt and lithium rose rapidly at the same time, the downstream cost pressure appeared, and the procurement rhythm was affected. However, rigid demand still exists, raw material inventory continues to decline, and market transaction prices continue to rise. It is suggested to focus on the following: ‘ Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\, Xiamen Tungsten Co.Ltd(600549) , Xtc New Energy Materials(Xiamen) Co.Ltd(688778) , Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) .
Risk tips: the global economic recovery is less than expected, the global epidemic development is more than expected, political risks, etc.
