Key investment points:
Monthly topic: the off-season is not light, and we pay attention to the investment opportunities of e-commerce express under the policy framework. Since 2021, express has entered the policy intensive period, and the new policy based framework of the industry has gradually taken shape. Under the new framework, the bargaining power of express delivery enterprises for Internet platforms and e-commerce businesses continued to improve, successfully transmitted labor cost pressure to the downstream, and the single ticket profit of enterprises effectively rebounded. 2022q1 is the first off-season since the new deal. Observing the operating data of enterprises from January to February, the trend of simultaneous rise in volume and price continues, and the phenomenon that the off-season of the industry is not light deserves attention. It is suggested to actively grasp the sector investment opportunities brought by Q1 and the elastic release of annual performance.
Logistics Express: continuous verification of pattern stability, with emphasis on Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Zhongtong express, Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) , S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352)
Express delivery: in terms of middle and low-end tracks, e-commerce express companies with steadily improved profitability supported by the improvement of key recommendation pattern – Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Zhongtong express, Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) . Several rounds of regulatory policies were gradually promoted. In January 2022, the single ticket income of e-commerce express enterprises increased significantly, and the stability of the industry pattern continued to be verified. It is optimistic that e-commerce express enterprises will gradually repair their cash flow and steadily improve their profitability under the support of improved pattern. Focus on recommending e-commerce express head Enterprises – Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Zhongtong express, Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) .
In terms of medium and high-end tracks, it is continuously recommended that the valuation return to the bottom range and the option value of new business highlights S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) . Looking forward to 2022, SF’s new business will gradually develop to a new stage of balancing traffic growth and profitability. Under the new stage, SF is expected to accelerate the pace of turning losses into profits through four networks financing and M & A integration. Long term optimistic about SF’s leading position and competitive advantage in the integrated logistics track.
Cross border Logistics: air and sea freight rates fluctuate at a high level, and cross-border e-commerce is recommended for a long time. The scarce target Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) . In January 2022, due to the impact of the off-season, the international air freight rate declined, but the downward freight rate is expected to release the traffic volume, so that the head enterprises can carry out business more effectively, promote the volume and price of cross-border e-commerce logistics business, and open the growth space of profit and valuation.
Airport Airlines: the opening expectation drops and waits patiently for the inflection point
Since the third quarter of 2021, the airport aviation sector is expected to take the lead, and the valuation has been repaired in twists and turns. The air passenger flow improved month on month in January, but remained low year-on-year in 2019. We are confident that life will return to normal, but remain cautious about the pace of opening up. It is expected that matters related to opening up will not be expected until at least the second half of 2022. After the epidemic prevention policy turns, the certainty of the two sectors will lead the industry.
There are opportunities for deterministic valuation and repair in the airport sector. Although affected by the continuous impact of the epidemic, airports in first tier cities are still high-quality core assets of China’s civil aviation industry. Their essence as a high-end traffic platform has not changed, and their natural monopoly position has not changed. On the day of the reopening of the country, when the value returns. Focus on Meilan Airport, the core asset of Hainan free trade port, and Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , one of China’s three gateway airports with a valuation at the bottom of history.
In the current round of large cycle caused by covid-19 epidemic, the aviation sector has the dual logic of valuation repair and supply and demand elasticity. Recently, driven by factors such as specific drugs, it is expected to take the lead, and the repair of sector valuation is close to completion. As for the elasticity of supply and demand, the limited supply provides the basis, the fare reform opens up space, and the industry profit of 2q2021 is preliminarily verified, but the core variable is demand, and the elasticity logic needs to wait patiently. Continuous key recommendation α and β Both Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) , continue to recommend low-cost leader Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) .
Industry rating and investment strategy: e-commerce express buying pattern, comprehensive logistics buying layout, cross-border logistics buying dividends. There are valuation repair opportunities in the airport, and aviation has the dual logic of valuation repair and supply and demand elasticity. Maintain the industry “recommended” rating.
Key recommended stocks: Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , Zhongtong express, Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) , Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) , Meilan Airport, Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) , Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) .
Risk tip: for the company: failure of M & A, bankruptcy caused by cash flow fracture, passive substantial dilution of shares caused by low-price additional issuance, position explosion of franchisees, cost control less than expected, etc. Industry: business growth is lower than expected, major policy changes, intensified competition, industrial accidents, etc. Macro aspects: large economic fluctuations, geopolitical conflicts, large fluctuations in oil remittances, large-scale natural disasters, a new round of epidemic outbreaks, etc.
