Sector market review
This week (02 / 28-03 / 04), the transportation index rose 3.29%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 1.68%, outperforming the market by 4.97%, ranking 3 / 29. Among the transportation sub sectors, the shipping sector increased the most (10.42%), and the express sector decreased the most (- 0.96%).
Industry perspective
Express: the State Post Office released the China Express development index report in February 2022. It is expected that the express business volume will increase by about 48% year-on-year, the express business revenue will increase by about 31%, the consolidated business volume from January to February will increase by 19% year-on-year, and the consolidated express business revenue will increase by 15% year-on-year. It is expected that the average daily business volume of express delivery will still be more than 300 million in March, and the scale of the industry will continue to expand. The performance of express delivery enterprises has entered the cashing period. Yuantong released the performance express. The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 was 2.092 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.42%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 was 1.138 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 198.87% Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) released the performance forecast for 2021, with a loss of 840950 million yuan, mainly due to the asset investment and the provision of asset impairment, which still put pressure on the annual performance. If the impact of the above asset impairment is excluded, the performance of 21q4 is expected to be profitable S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) business strategy adjustment pays more attention to quality growth, the impact of capacity cycle gradually subsides, actively optimizes product structure and customer structure, lean cost control, Kerry Logistics promotes international business development, and Ezhou airport lays the foundation for future development; With strong certainty in performance restoration, 21q4 made a profit of 2.4-2.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39% – 50%, deducting non net profit of 1.45-1.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41% – 56%. SF intends to repurchase some of the company’s shares for employee stock ownership plan or equity incentive. The total amount of funds to be repurchased shall not be less than RMB 1 billion and not more than RMB 2 billion, and the repurchase price shall not exceed RMB 70 / share.
Logistics: there is a high threshold in the field of chemical logistics. After Tianjin Port Co.Ltd(600717) , Xiangshui and other accidents, the supervision becomes stricter, which limits the supply of the industry, and the demand side still grows every year. The performance growth of leading chemical logistics enterprises is highly uncertain, focusing on Nanjing Shenghang Shipping Co.Ltd(001205) . The upgrading of manufacturing industry increases the demand for tob productive supply chain logistics. Enterprises that pay attention to system investment and strong management will win and pay attention to Hichain Logistics Co.Ltd(300873) .
Airports: starting from March 5, the fuel surcharge for air tickets on Chinese routes was raised to 20 yuan or 40 yuan, covering some of the rising fuel costs. The national development and Reform Commission and other 14 departments issued several policies on promoting the recovery and development of difficult industries in the service industry, and suspended the advance payment of value-added tax by air transport enterprises for one year. In February 11, 2022, the State Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved the Pfizer’s COVID-19 oral drug Paxlovid (nalmatv tablets / Ritonavir Tablets) for the treatment of mild to moderate New Coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) in adults with severe risk factors. The 3 phase clinical trial showed that it could reduce the risk of 89% of hospitalization and death. Paxlovid is an important means of treating COVID-19. Catalyse international expectations. According to the “14th five year plan” for civil aviation development, the average annual growth of takeoff and landing sorties from 2019 to 2025 was 6.5%, lower than the previous growth rate of more than 10%, and the industry supply was tightened. The success of covid-19 drug research and development will help restore normal production and life, strengthen vaccination and accelerate the promotion of vaccines, the restriction policy is expected to be relaxed, the operation of airports will be significantly improved, the investment value of the sector is prominent, and it is recommended to actively allocate, with emphasis on Air China Limited(601111) , Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) .
Shipping: centralized transportation: the CCFI index was 338859 points, down 1.08% month on month; The SCFI index was 474698 points, down 1.5% month on month. Oil transportation: the crude oil transportation index BDTI closed at 147400, up 28.5% month on month and 120.7% year on year. The refined oil transportation index bcti closed at 989.00, up 42.1% month on month and 106.9% year on year. We are concerned about the recovery of oil transportation.
Risk tips
The risk of sharp rise in oil prices, the risk of devaluation of RMB exchange rate and the risk of price war exceeding expectations.
