Chuan caiyue’s view
The prices of industrial metals and gold rose this month, and the non-ferrous sector stocks performed better. The non-ferrous metal industry index rose 15.5%, and the non-ferrous metal sector ranked second among 28 sub industries. With the further escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the international gold price rose above US $1940, a new high since the beginning of 2021.
Expectations are gradually digested, and the resistance to the rise of gold gradually disappears. At present, the question that the market has been concerned about and discussed is whether the Russian Ukrainian war will bring about the continuous rise of gold price, that is, how likely is the risk aversion premium of gold to continue to enlarge. From the currently published global inflation data, the CPI increases in Europe and the United States reached the highest in 25 and 31 years respectively. On the other hand, the current US dollar gold pricing is significantly lower than that under inflation parity, which also shows that the inflation premium of gold is still in the fermentation stage. At present, the market’s expectation of future interest rate hikes is becoming stronger and stronger. It is expected that the gold price will continue to be strong in the process of this round of interest rate hikes. On the one hand, as the time approaches March, the gold price remains strong, indicating that the negative effect of the current interest rate hike on gold is weakening and the market expectation is gradually digesting. On the other hand, it is expected that this interest rate increase will have a limited impact on gold prices. During the past six interest rate hikes, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in the United States has continued to increase, and it is difficult for interest rate hikes to have an essential impact on inflation. There is a high probability that the subsequent gold price will continue to strengthen. Since the beginning of the year, due to the high inflation in the United States and the repricing of monetary policy, the double killing of U.S. stocks and bonds has been promoted, and the safe haven attribute of gold has regained its favor of funds, and the investment targets, including gold related stocks, gold ETFs and gold futures, have received capital inflows. In the short term, the Russian Ukrainian problem is difficult to ease quickly, and the subsequent gold price is expected to continue to strengthen under the expectation of interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical factors.
Lithium demand continued to improve and prices continued to rise. The output of lithium iron phosphate increased greatly, and the price of lithium sector increased rapidly. According to the relevant data in January 2022, the output of power batteries increased significantly, including lithium iron phosphate. In terms of production, the output of ternary battery was 1081530 MWh, a year-on-year increase of + 57.95%, and the output of lithium iron phosphate battery was 1879010 MWh, a year-on-year increase of + 261.79%. In terms of loading volume, the proportion of lithium iron phosphate loading volume increased. The loading volume of ternary batteries was 7299.9 MW, a year-on-year increase of + 35.22%, and the loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 8873.9 MW, a year-on-year increase of + 172.72%. In terms of market share of loading volume, ternary batteries accounted for + 45.13%, a year-on-year increase of -17.26pct, and lithium iron phosphate accounted for + 54.87%, a year-on-year increase of + 17.26pct. The price of lithium sector also continued to rise driven by the demand of lithium iron phosphate manufacturers. Since the Spring Festival, the price trend of lithium carbonate has continued to be rapid, with an increase of more than 50000 yuan / ton compared with that before the festival in just two weeks. The current valuation has returned to a relatively reasonable position. It is suggested to pay attention to two main investment lines. First, the battery factories with alleviated cost pressure and rebounded gross profit: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , etc; II. Lithium resource companies with high lithium price supported by supply and demand and expected to realize excess profits: Keda Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600499) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , etc.
Risk tip: the macro economy is less than expected and the demand for lithium iron phosphate is less than expected.
