Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) (600809)
event
According to phoenix.com, on December 26, the company held a 2021 global dealer conference to summarize the achievements of the company's marketing reform and look forward to the goal and path of the company's high-quality development under the background of "new stage, new concept and new pattern".
Business analysis
The marketing reform has achieved remarkable results, and there is great potential to radiate and drive the nationalization. 1) Reform achievements: at present, the company has established a "31 + 10" regional marketing organization structure, and implemented flat management and cabinet system talent appointment. At present, the company has 28 billion yuan markets, 2944 dealers and millions of terminals, and the effect of nationalization is beginning to appear. 2) Development path: the region around Shanxi is the company's traditional advantageous market, radiating to the whole country from point to area on the basis of continuous deep cultivation; The market economy in East / South China is vigorous. The company will focus on resources, seize the highland and build the market outside the province into a new growth pole in 3 ~ 5 years. The company also continued to optimize the dealer structure, adhere to the separation of "price, fee and profit", and promote the benign implementation of marketing reform.
Adhere to the development orientation of medium and high-grade, and help the revival of Fenjiu with blue and white. The blue and white series is of strategic significance in the company's product matrix. Chairman yuan stressed that we should continue to make efforts in the blue and white series and continuously release the head effect of blue and white Fen Liquor, which is consistent with the five development concepts of blue and white Fen Liquor with brand focus as the core of the company. In the goal of further marketing reform, the three indicators of the company focus on Qinghua (Qinghua Fen Liquor sales index, Qinghua 20 terminal index and Qinghua Fen Liquor opinion leader group index), reflecting that the company's product strategy will focus more on Qinghua series, and it is expected that the optimization of product structure is expected to accelerate.
Strong channel enthusiasm, the company's high elastic growth performance can be expected. According to the recent channel feedback, the overall inventory is very low, the payment enthusiasm is strong, and the start is promising. The company focuses on the promotion of blue and white brand value, and the cost is gradually tilted from Bofen to the revival version. It is expected that Bofen will continue to control the volume in 22 years, the growth rate of blue and white 20 is expected to be 50% +, and the revival version has a good momentum and is expected to double. We also suggest paying attention to the nationalization process of the company. It is estimated that the growth rate of the market around Shanxi will be about 25% in 22 years, and the growth rate of the markets in East and South China is expected to reach 50%.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We expect the revenue growth rate of the company to be 50% / 32% / 27% in 21-23 years respectively; The profit growth rate was 82% / 39% / 35% respectively; EPS is 4.59/6.40/8.65 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 70 / 50 / 37x respectively. As a fragrance leader, the company is expected to release its brand potential and maintain its "buy" rating.
Risk statement
Repeated epidemic risk, less than expected risk of nationalization, macroeconomic downside risk and food safety problems.
