The monthly sales of the top 100 fell year-on-year for eight consecutive months, and the decline has expanded under the high base
According to Kerui data, in February 2022, the monthly sales amount of the top 100 real estate enterprises (companies with comparable caliber) decreased by 21.7% month on month, 46.3% year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate decreased by 6.2pct compared with January 2022. The monthly sales amount of the top 100 real estate enterprises increased negatively year-on-year for eight consecutive months, with a year-on-year decrease of more than 35% for four consecutive months.
The year-on-year growth rate of each gradient slowed down comprehensively, and the growth rate of top 50 real estate enterprises continued to be under pressure
In February 2022, the sales amount of top3, TOP10, top11-30, top31-50 and top51-100 in a single month changed by – 31.1%, – 33.5%, – 37.8%, – 29.5% and – 57.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate changed by – 1.7pct, – 6.2pct, – 15.0pct, – 7.7pct and + 5.0pct respectively compared with January 2022. The pressure on the top 50 real estate enterprises is significant, and small and medium-sized real estate enterprises show marginal improvement under low growth rate.
Affected by the dislocation of the Spring Festival, the transaction growth rate of key cities has narrowed
According to the high-frequency transaction data, the transaction area of commercial housing in 63 cities in February was – 27.47% year-on-year, an improvement of 4.33pct compared with the previous month, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate from January to February was – 30.14%. Among them, the first tier, third tier and lower tier cities increased by 25.21pct and 7.07pct respectively compared with the previous month, and the second tier cities decreased slightly by 0.45pct compared with the previous month. In the same period, the transaction area of second-hand houses in 17 cities was – 35.59% year-on-year, down 1.58pct from the previous month.
New houses show marginal improvement, and second-hand houses and land are still under pressure
The new housing market traded 4.81 million square meters this week, with a monthly year-on-year increase of – 27.47%, an improvement of 4.33 PCT compared with the previous month; The accumulated inventory was 151.76 million square meters, the second-line de urbanization accelerated, the third-line and below de urbanization slowed down, and the first-line speed was flat. The second-hand housing market traded 1.32 million square meters this week, with a monthly year-on-year decrease of – 35.59%, down 1.58 PCT compared with the previous month. The land market traded 17.64 million square meters this week, rolling for 12 weeks, with a year-on-year increase of – 40.31%; The total turnover was 10.1 billion yuan, rolling for 12 weeks, with a year-on-year increase of – 44.70%; The national average premium rate was + 1.27%, rolling for 12 weeks, year-on-year -10.52pct.
This week, the Shenwan real estate index was + 1.23%, up 4.45pct from last week, ranking 7 / 31, ahead of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 2.91pct. In terms of H shares, this week’s wind Hong Kong real estate index was – 2.29%, up 4.48pct from last week, ranking 7 / 11, leading the Hang Seng Index by 1.49pct; The leading index of kroney real estate stocks was – 2.39%, up 7.39 PCT from last week.
Grasp the beta of loose policy structure and the alpha of M & A
Investment suggestion: the future industry beta depends on the adjustment of industry structure, the pace of capacity clearing and the strength of policy support; Alpha focuses on the repair of the balance sheet and profit margin of key real estate enterprises by M & A, the accuracy of countercyclical plus leverage, and the long-term excavation of the value of housing scenarios. Suggestions: 1) high quality leaders: Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Longhu group, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) ; 2) High quality growth: Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) , Xuhui holding group; 3) Quality property management: Country Garden service, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , poly property, Xuhui Yongsheng service.
Risk warning: industry credit risk spread; The downward cycle of industry sales begins; Administrative regulation remained high-pressure, and the pilot strength of real estate tax exceeded expectations
