Investment strategy: the global supply of iron element has been greatly impacted recently. Russia and Ukraine are both large exporters of finished steel / semi-finished products / iron ore. the external supply of the two countries is blocked periodically. Overseas buyers look for alternative supply in the global market to push up the price of black products. In addition, the fiscal and tax standardization of China's scrap industry chain has been implemented since March. The arrival of scrap in steel enterprises fell this week, and the supply was also affected to some extent. In terms of demand, the average daily turnover recovers rapidly. Of course, there may be speculative demand. How to focus on the real demand in the peak season and the data in the next two weeks. In the short term, the contraction of iron supply caused by emergencies may still dominate the black commodity market in March. At the same time, the demand side will also enter the stage of testing the effect of steady growth and pay attention to the changes of demand data. In the medium term, the industry may still face demand side uncertainty. Focus on growing new material industries and companies Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) , Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) , Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , etc
One week market review: this week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.49%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 0.49%, and the Shenwan steel sector rose 3.31%. This week, the main contract of rebar closed at 4901 yuan / ton, an increase of 284 yuan / ton over the previous week, with a range of 6.15%; the main contract of hot rolled coil closed at 5210 yuan / ton, an increase of 414 yuan / ton over the previous week, with a range of 8.63%; The main iron ore contract closed at 812.5 yuan / ton, an increase of 132 yuan / ton over last week, an increase of 19.4%.
Accelerated recovery of steel trading volume: the weekly average of national construction steel trading volume this week was 174600 tons, an increase of 62300 tons compared with that before last week. The social inventory of the five varieties was 17.846 million tons, an increase of 294000 tons month on month. The pace of downstream continued to accelerate, and the trading volume of building materials increased significantly compared with that of last week, rebounding to the level of the same period last year. In terms of inventory, the growth rate of social inventory has slowed down significantly, and the factory inventory has decreased slightly. It is expected that the market will enter the inventory removal stage with the large-scale commencement of steel mills.
The operating rates of Tangshan steel mills and Mysteel steel mills continued to rise by 287.72% last week and 287.83% this week respectively; This week, the blast furnace capacity utilization rates of 247 Mysteel steel enterprises and Tangshan Steel Plant were 81.49% and 63.19% respectively, with a month on week increase of + 3.88ct and + 9.02pct. The operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 71 home appliance arc furnaces have not been updated this week. In terms of supply, the operating rate and capacity utilization rate of steel plants in Tangshan continued to increase, and the steel output increased more than last week. As the peak season approaches, the operating rate and capacity utilization rate of steel mills are still improving, and there is still room for steel output increment.
Steel prices rose significantly: the myspic comprehensive steel price index increased by 2.53% month on month, including 1.6% for long materials and 3.67% for sectors. Shanghai rebar 4920 yuan / ton, an increase of 170 yuan on a weekly basis, an increase of 3.58%. Shanghai hot rolled coil was 5160 yuan / ton, an increase of 300 yuan / ton over the previous week, an increase of 6.17%. Affected by the Russian Ukrainian war this week, the steel supply side of western countries such as Europe may be affected, and international buyers are looking for alternative supplies; The Russian Ukrainian war also pushed up the price of iron ore and further pushed up the price of steel.
The ore price rose sharply and the inbound volume decreased: platts62%136.95 US dollars / ton this week, with a week-on-week increase of 13.05 US dollars / ton. Last week, Australia and Brazil delivered 2013.1 million tons, an increase of 648000 tons month on month, and the arrival volume was 7.705 million tons, a decrease of 2.509 million tons month on month. The latest steel mill imported ore inventory days are 29 days, 1 day less than the last time. Tianjin Zhunyi metallurgical coke was 3210 yuan / ton, an increase of 400 yuan / ton compared with last week. Scrap steel 3150 yuan / ton, 50 yuan / ton less than last week. Affected by the Russian Ukrainian war, Russia and Ukraine may have a great impact on the world steel supply, driving the sharp rise of ore prices and watching the fermentation degree affected by the supply side events.
The profit per ton of steel decreased: the price of raw materials increased greatly this week, and the profit of mainstream steel decreased significantly. According to our simulated steel data, during the week, the ore price at the raw material end soared, the coke price increased slightly, and the billet cost increased by nearly 200 yuan / ton. Although the end circumference price of finished products per ton of steel has increased, the profit level of per ton of steel has shrunk greatly. Among them, the gross profit of hot rolled coil (3mm) has been reduced by 53 yuan / ton, and the gross profit margin has been reduced to 7.76%; The gross profit of cold rolled sheet (1.0mm) is reduced by 201 yuan / ton, and the gross profit rate is reduced to 1.75%; The gross profit of deformed steel bar (20mm) is reduced by 159 yuan / ton, and the gross profit rate is reduced to 7.35%; The gross profit of medium and heavy sector (20mm) is reduced by 183 yuan / ton, and the gross profit rate is reduced to 4.03%.
Risk tip: the sharp decline of macro economy leads to pressure on demand; The pressure at the supply end continues to increase.
