Market performance
Last week, the food and beverage sector index fell by 1.96% as a whole, ranking 21st in the Shenwan sub industry, 0.28% behind the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index and 1.85% behind the Shanghai Composite Index. In the sub sectors, other liquor (-3.05%), Baijiu (-2.89%), baked food (-1.65%), soft drink (-1.56%), flavoring fermented (-0.29%), snacks (-0.11%) and dairy products (-0.07%) showed a downward trend, beer (2.48%), meat products (4.19%) and health products (7.27%) showed a rising trend.
Investment recommendation
Popular products: under the environment of weak overall consumption, dairy products with growing demand and year-on-year decline in raw material costs are preferred. The scale of key recommendations is steadily increased, the product structure is optimized, and the cost investment benefits from the long-term improvement of industry competition Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) . At the same time, we believe that the main food industrialization track deserves long-term attention. We recommend Zhongyin Babi Food Co.Ltd(605338) , which has strong livelihood attributes and is driven by franchise stores and group meal business. The performance of condiments was dragged down by the rise of catering consumption and raw materials, but in adversity, Haitian as the leading channel foundation was further consolidated, and the growth of zero addition and salt reduction products was rapid. It is expected to continue to expand the market share during the reshuffle period, which is worthy of close tracking.
Baijiu Baijiu: external disturbance aggravates fluctuation, there are pressure under the Baijiu sector support, recommend high-end liquor steady progress and regional famous liquor upgrading two main lines. The high-end liquor industry, head Baijiu action frequently, marginal improvement or beyond expectations, business dinner, social gifts to high-end demand is still solid. In terms of regional famous wines, the repeated epidemic situation and macro-economy have led to regional differentiation, and Su liquor and Hui liquor are relatively strong; Channel research feedback Anhui liquor consumption upgrade rhythm is faster, the mainstream price belt to 200+ yuan, the promotion of Baijiu is expected to continue to advance.
Key industry data
Baijiu: this week Moutai wine wholesale price and last week slightly lower than the previous week, the price is 3135 yuan this week. In terms of loose bottles, the price of this week was 2760 yuan, slightly lower than that of last week The Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) lot price was stable at 965 yuan / bottle, and the Guojiao 1573 lot price was stable at 920 yuan / bottle. Food: on March 4, the price of wheat was 327500 yuan / ton, the price of corn was 277961 yuan / ton, and the price of soybean was 523789 yuan / ton. On March 4, the price of white granulated sugar was 5.77 yuan / kg. On March 4, the prices of piglets, pork and hairy pigs were 13.79 yuan / kg, 18.54 yuan / kg and 15.60 yuan / kg respectively, with a significant year-on-year decrease. On February 23, the price of raw and fresh milk was 4.24 yuan / kg. On February 25, the price of domestic brand milk powder was 218.60 yuan, basically unchanged.
Industry highlights
Airy consulting released the seven wind directions of the food and beverage industry. The core viewpoints are as follows: (1) the quality of prefabricated dishes with brand is upgraded to the key. Consumers have a high willingness to cook at home. Prefabricated dishes help to balance consumers’ dual requirements for food quality and cooking convenience. (2) Unzipping sleep food extends to more categories. Stress and insomnia related emotional distress have been paid attention to, and functional foods containing relevant nutrients have been paid attention to by consumers. (3) Look for snacks within the allowable range of health. Consumers tend to choose healthier snacks to meet their emotional needs and reduce their health burden. (4) Light drinks are popular among young women. Changes in people, scenes and emotional needs have led to more diversified wine choices. A variety of light alcohol drinks, mainly non alcohol wine and low alcohol wine, have sprung up, emphasizing no burden and slight drunkenness. (5) Plant based products are extending from b-end to C-end. Plant manufacturers in China are constantly adding new products to the Chinese plant market. (6) Taste innovation is characterized by seasonal localization. Get new inspiration for taste innovation from seasonal fruits and vegetables and seasonal flowers and plants, which is conducive to enhancing the emotional interaction between the brand and consumers. (7) Develop low-carbon packaging application and technological innovation. The development of low-carbon packaging in China focuses on “recycling” and tries to apply new low-carbon packaging materials, but large-scale application and technological innovation of packaging materials still need to be made.
Risk tips
The risk of long-term epidemic prevention and control in China; Risks of major food safety incidents; Major agricultural epidemic risk.
